1. KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion model) Michael Schaffner Senior Service Hydrologist NOAA National Weather Service WFO Binghamton, NY Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference June 4, 2010

2. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasting for small fast responding basins Forecasting for large basins (i.e. mainstem rivers) has been taking place for decades. Forecasting for small basins is more recent and is techniques are still being developed.

3. What are current NWS methods of providing site specific/basin specific information in flash flood warnings? Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Program (FFMP) Site Specific rainfall-runoff models Headwater Guidance Flash Flood Guidance

4. FFMP vs. Site Specific Model This allows the forecaster to pinpoint (i.e. provide site specific information) which basins are receiving the heaviest rainfall. Does not allow the forecaster in most cases to determine the timing and magnitude of an event.

5. Available Site Specific Models Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model One-hour time steps Hourly Multi Sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) input Manual hourly Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) input

6. Output from the Site Specific Model

7. The KINEROS Model: A next generation site specific model Is a distributed model. Current modeling within the NWS is generally lumped modeling. Lumped models consider the watershed as a whole. Distributed models take into account spatial variation in: –Drainage/channel network –Precipitation –Land use –Soil type

8. Above image from: http://www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/kineros/ Plan View Schematic View Composed of a cascade of overland flow planes and open channel elements.

9. Starting up the model Select initial flow rate Select initial soil moisture state (very dry, dry, wet, or very wet) Select date and time of simulation start Select Z-R Relationship

10. KINEROS Graphical User Interface (GUI)

11. Test Basins Both gauged and ungaged watersheds were tested. 4 gauged and 3 ungauged KINEROS modeled points in the upper Delaware River Basin are shown. Drainage area from 4 square miles to 241 square miles.

12. Platte Kill near Dunraven, NY 35 square miles. Typical fast responding small stream of the Catskill Mountains of New York State.

13. Typical Platte Kill Hydrographs produced by KINEROS

14. Beaver Kill near Cooks Falls, NY 241 square miles. One of our most challenging river forecast points due to its fast response time.

15. Lead Time: Beaver Kill near Cook Falls, NY KINEROS can provide lead time of almost 3 hours on the flood crest vs. minimal lead time when compared to the typical flood warning issued. Further lead time is possible when QPF is added. USGS web cam image: http://ny.water.usgs.gov/rt/pub/01420500.htm 241 square mile fast responding headwater point.

16. Ungaged Basins Represent an unmet need in forecasting within the NWS. Data can be collected on small basins using indirect discharge methods. Timing of onset of flooding and peak flooding can be noted.

17. Callicoon Creek at Jeffersonville, NY USGS stream gage located downstream from Jeffersonville at Callicoon. May not be representative of flooding further upstream along the East Branch at Jeffersonville.

18. Callicoon Creek at Jeffersonville Watershed in KINEROS Event DateDescription June 28, 2006Record flood July 29, 2009Minor-Moderate July 31, 2009Minor-Moderate August 2, 2009¼ Bankfull August 9, 2009½ Bankfull August 22, 2009½ Bankfull

19. Summary of Current use of KINEROS Used for gaged and ungaged basins. Peak flow forecasting for gaged basins including some headwater river forecast points. Peak flow forecasting for ungaged basins under the limitation of categorical forecasting.

20. Future Work Add snow model. Add sub-surface lateral flow. Test at other NWS offices. Example WFO Pittsburgh urbanized basins:

21. Questions / Comments?