1. 1 Beyond California Water Plan Update 2005 California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum Annual Meeting, March 3 rd, 2005

2. 2 Objectives for Presentation ● Highlight goals for tools and data ● Show accomplishments ● Describe possible screening approach ● Demo of EXTEND software ● Next steps

3. 3 Goals for Analytical Tools and Data

4. 4 Goals ● Describe expectations for evaluation. ● Inventory and document data and tools consistently. ● Apply existing data and tools for Update 2010. ● Develop a long term plan for improvement. ● Coordinate with CALFED Program.

5. 5 Desired End-Product ● Evaluate multiple future conditions (Scenarios and Responses) ● Explore wide range of benefits and costs (Evaluation Criteria) ● Support integrated regional planning ● Support statewide planning

6. 6 Accomplishments

7. 7 Recent Progress ● Collaborated with David Groves to quantify 3 scenarios of 2030 water demand ● Developed conceptual framework ● Held workshop with Modeling Work Group ● Submitted coordinated funding proposals to CBDA Science Program ● Documenting existing tools ● Participating in CALSIM model improvements

8. 8 Developed Conceptual Framework ● Can be applied at different spatial scales ● Describes complex system using simple categories ● Illustrates inputs, outputs, and relationships ● Draft HTML version available on CD

9. 9 Water Management System Geophysical Parameters Evaluation Criteria (Economic, Management, Societal) Evaluation Criteria (Economic, Management, Societal) Human and Environmental Water Demands Management Strategies Demand Drivers Conceptual Framework for Assessing Water Resources and Management Water Management Objectives Organization Definitions Overview

10. 10 Developed Tool Descriptions ● Scope and Application ● Conceptual basis ● Theoretical basis ● Numerical basis ● Data ● Data management ● Software

11. 11 Completed Tool Descriptions ● CALSIM ● CALAG ● LCPSIM ● IGSM2 ● SIMETAW ● CUP ● ETAW-CAWU ● DSM2 ● CALVIN ● IMPLAN ● UPLAN ● LAWS ● CU http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/b160/workgroups/modelinggroup.htm

12. 12 Possible Screening Approach

13. 13 Water Management System Geophysical Parameters Evaluation Criteria (Economic, Management, Societal) Evaluation Criteria (Economic, Management, Societal) Human and Environmental Water Demands Management Strategies Demand Drivers Conceptual Framework for Assessing Water Resources and Management Water Management Objectives Organization Definitions Overview

14. 14 Need to Represent the Water Management System at Different Spatial Scales From Statewide …

15. 15 …To Hydrologic Region or Planning Area

16. 16 Using the Flow Diagram …

17. 17 … to Define Data & Relationships

18. 18 Using the Best Available Analytical Tools and Data to Quantify Flow Diagram ● Published data and surveys ● Estimates derived from simple relationships ● Estimates derived from models

19. 19 Using an Analytical Environment ● Developing pilot of flow diagram using EXTEND software package ● Features  Transparent and relatively easy for others to review and use  Can use in “real-time” interactions with stakeholders  Customize to include relationships from best current knowledge  Explore different possible outcomes

20. 20 Demo of EXTEND Software Demo of EXTEND Software

21. 21 Next Steps – Update 2010 ● Prioritize key components of flow diagram ● Define / refine key theoretical relationships ● Quantify detailed scenario factors ● Develop evaluation criteria details ● Develop response package details ● Develop work plan for detailed approach

22. 22 Next Steps - Beyond Update 2010 ● Implement long-term plan to improve analytical tools (detailed approach) ● Fill data gaps ● Develop Water Plan Information Exchange (Water PIE)

23. 23 Summary ● We are working to accomplish specific goals for tools and data ● Good progress has been made ● Much more to be done ● Need to meet soon and often with Water Plan Advisory Committee

24. 24