1. Chapter 7 Managing Emerging Technologies
Paula Goulding

2. Chapter Outline Importance of understanding emerging technologies
Should organization be pioneer, leader, or follower
Best time to adopt new technology
How to introduce and appropriate apply new technology

3. Technology Life Cycle Emerging Technology Pacing Technology
Technology considered innovation
Still developing in capability/capacity
Pacing Technology
Technology is growing in acceptance
Key Technology
Provides competitive differential
Base Technology
Final phase of life cycle
Required technology

5. Adoption of Technology
Innovators (Technology enthusiasts)
Willing to take higher risks
Early Adopters (Visionaries)
More visionary
Early Majority (Pragmatists)
Wait for more assurance for success of technology
Late Majority (Conservatives)
Must adopt technology to stay current
Laggards (Skeptics)
True skeptics; must adopt to stay in the market

7. Moore’s Product Provider View of Technology Innovation
Early Market
Look to be first with new paradigm
Chasm
Early market interest wanes
Bowling Alley
Niche-based adoption in advance of general marketplace
Tornado
Mass-market adoption
Main Street
Aftermarket development
Flesh out potential
End of Life
Ignored and presumed in original model
Enable new paradigms to come to market

10. Strategies for Technology Development

11. Diffusion Curve

12. Managing Change

13. Learning S-Curve

14. Three Strategic Postures
Shape the future
Play leadership role in establishing how industry operates
Adopt to the future
Recognizing and capturing opportunities in existing markets
Reserve right to play
Invest sufficiently to stay in the game
Avoid premature commitments

15. Innovations Influence on Rate of Adoption
Relative Advantage
Considers degree innovation is perceived to be better
Compatibility
Higher level of compatibility with values and needs
Complexity
If difficult to learn, use, or implement will slow rate
Trialability
If easily experimental, will have better adoption chance
Observability
Degree to which innovation can be seen

16. Increasing Returns of Adoption
Learning by using
Increase in benefits technology brings as adopters gain experience and knowledge
Positive network externalities
Greater the number of users, greater the benefit
Technological interrelatedness
Existence of compatible products that will increase larger base of adopters

17. Characteristics of Early Adopters
Ability to amortize costs of learning
Ability to acquire any given amount of new knowledge with less effort
Higher level of initial knowledge about given technology

18. Assimilation Gap
Source: Fichman, Robert G., Kemerer, Chris F. The Illusory Diffusion of Innovation: An Examination of Assimilation Gaps, Information Systems Research, Vol. 10, No. 3, September 1999.

19. Identifying Emerging Technologies
What Can Happen?
Keep abreast of technologies being developed
What Will Happen?
Engineering hurdles may exist
What Should Happen?
Consideration of social, political, and ethical issues
How Will It Happen?
R&D may envision product differently than actual application of it

20. Inhibitors to Emerging Technology
Delayed participation
Sticking with the familiar
Reluctance to fully commit
Lack of persistence

21. Human Resource Considerations
Availability of Talent
Best personnel to evaluate technology
Resource Allocation
Dedicated resources for evaluation and implementation
Motivation
Project failure/success is a possibility
Knowledge Management
Sharing of lessons learned
Utilize outside consultants
Protect new knowledge for competitive advantage

22. Technology Scanning Keeping abreast of developments in technology
Books and Periodicals
Formal Studies
Personal Contacts
Professional Organizations/Workshops/Conventions
R & D Organizations
State and Federal Departments
Universities
Vendors and Consultants
Early Adopters

23. Factors for Successful Introduction
Identify problem and opportunity that technology addresses
Identify and empower a champion
Create cross-functional, dedicated, accountable team
Build supportive environment for introduction of technology
Identify and address associated risks
Manage the project

24. Technology Assessment Process
Scoping
Establish scope/domain of technology search
Searching
Screen technologies
Search for signs/viability of emerging technology
Evaluating
Identify/prioritize technologies
Evaluate based on abilities, needs, competitive opportunities
Committing
How it should be pursued and implemented

26. Selling Technology to Senior Executives
Manage expectations
Start small to mitigate risks
Look to other industries for changes
Understand iterative/evolutionary nature
Underpromise
Be honest
Sell business solution
Identify value to organization
Compare new to existing technologies
Consider range of alternatives
Create champions throughout organization

27. Prioritize and Focus Prototype, demo, and show users
Be intimate with business drivers
Understand business requirements
Highlight benefits
Weigh risks
Identify those that enable new business

28. Prioritize and Focus Identify those that are easily integrated
Measure risks and ability to absorb failure/success
Understand organizational culture
Set aside money for changes

29. Developing the Business Case
Identify business need
How does it fit in current priorities
Identify areas to be impacted
Benefits to/impact on bottom line
Competitive landscape
Identify assumptions and justify

30. Developing the Business Case
Utilize proof of concepts/prototype
Add validity to proof of concept
Evaluate implementation options
Evaluate fit
Feedback
Identify project champion

31. When to Deploy Emerging Technologies
Look at industry trends
Benchmark
Evaluate when risk of not doing it is greater than doing it
Pilot technology to validate proof of concept/direction
Utilize outside consultants to evaluate

32. Lessons from the Past Expert predictions are fallible
Timing is relevant
Iterate and review frequently
Which new technologies become adopted is hard to predict
Consequences of adoptions take long time to become evident

33. Laws of Technology Bigger Computers Are Better
Grosch’s Law
Smaller Computers Are Better
Moore
Connected Computers Are Better
Metcalfe
Machines May Leap, but Programs Creep
Wirth
Networks Will Triple Every Year
Gilder