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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com Overview of the JI Market Olga Gassan-zade Point Carbon November 14, Nairobi
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com About Point Carbon Founded in 2000 Focus: carbon, power and gas markets Analysis, forecasting and news for all market segments Risk management and advisory services 90+ employees Oslo (HQ), Kyiv, London, Washington, Brussels, Zurich, Tokyo 12,000+ subscribers
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com Market Activity Forecast
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com Overview of JI Activities CDMJI # Projects/ transaction s Total volume -2012 (MtCO2e) # Projects/ transactions Total volume -2012 (MtCO2e) Projects (total) 3,3182,147671354 Projects (PDD) 1,5091,754233173 Transactions2687008263,7
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com Closing Prices, H1 2006 Contract category CDM (€/t)JI (€/t) 1. VERs in case of no CERs/ERUs4-53-5 2. Standard off take, non-firm volume,6-124-6 3. Firm volume, with preconditions10-166-9 4. Guaranteed delivery, no preconditions16-18n.a
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com Buyers on JI Market Unknown, 1% Private 25% Governments 64% Funds 10%
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com Project Types, CDM and JI 18% 27% 4% 39% 12% Energy Efficiency 15% 34% Industrial 18% Renewable 24% Waste 8% LULUCF 1% Fugitive 19% 2% 5% 49% 22% 2% Fugitive 10% Industrial, 38% 19% Waste 12% 18% LULUCF 2% Other 1% Energy Efficiency Renewable CDMJI Inner circle - # of projects Outer circle - volume
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com CDM, PDDs by Volume, Mt 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 China India Brazil Korea South Africa Mexico Argentina Nigeria Chile Thailand
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com JI PDDs by Volume, MT 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Germany Russian Federation Ukraine Romania Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland New Zealand Estonia Slovakia Lithuania
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com JI Country Rating Up-date: 9 October 2006 Country Rating JI (Last rating) Rating AAUs (Last rating) 1. (1)RomaniaBBB+(BBB+)B+(B) 2. (2)BulgariaBBB(BBB)B(B-) 3. (3)PolandBBB-(BBB-)CCC(CCC) 4. (4)HungaryBB(BB)CCC+(CCC) 5. (6)UkraineBB(BB-)B-(B-) 6. (5)EstoniaBB-(BB-)CC+(CC+) 7. (7)Czech Rep.B+(B+)B+(B+) 8. (8)New ZealandB(B)-(-) 9. (9)RussiaB(B-)CCC+(CCC) 10. (10)SlovakiaCCC(CCC+)B+(B)
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com Recent Developments Project volumes have grown significantly in Russia and Ukraine Ukraine: 50 LoEs; Russia: 30 LoEs EU ETS has limited project activities in new MS CEEs JISC impact on the market: Attention Certainty Push for Track 1 Contradictory price signals
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com Outlook JI to scale down in Bulgaria and Romania due to EU ETS Animal waste management – unexplored possibility? Future of JI belongs to Russia and Ukraine New countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan?
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Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets www.pointcarbon.com Thank you for your attention! Olga Gassan-zade Point Carbon, Kiev Direct tel.: +380-050-38-38-968 Email: ogz@pointcarbon.com
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