1. “New Learning” Barnard’s Inn Hall Holborn London EC1N 2HH Tel: +44 (0)20 7831 0575 Fax: +44 (0)20 7831 5208 Email : enquiries@gresham.ac.uk www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 Commerce Professor Michael Mainelli Danish Fairy Tales? Arthur Andersen and the Copenhagen Consensus

2. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 Outline The Great ‘Commerce’ Experiment The “End of History” Danish connections Fret-Enomics Might versus Right A theory of Commerce? “Get a detailed grip on the big picture.” Chao Kli Ning

3. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 The Great ‘Commerce’ Experiment Adam Smith Karl Marx The Great Transformation Visible Hand versus the Invisible Hand

4. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 The “End of History” Francis Fukuyama Emperor’s new clothes

5. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 Danish Connections Arthur Andersen Enron Waste Management WorldCom Global Crossing Qwest… Tyco, HealthSouth, Adelphia… Emperor’s new clothes?

6. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 Copenhagen Consensus – 10 out of 33 Climate change Communicable diseases Conflicts and arms proliferation Access to education Financial instability Governance and corruption Malnutrition and hunger Migration Sanitation and access to clean water Subsidies and trade barriers

7. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 Copenhagen Consensus – Go! RankingChallengeOpportunity Very Good 1. Communicable diseasesControl of HIV/AIDS 2. Malnutrition and hungerProviding micronutrients 3. Subsidies and tradeTrade liberalisation 4. Communicable diseasesControl of malaria Good5. Malnutrition and hungerDevelopment of new agricultural technologies 6. Sanitation and waterCommunity-managed water supply and sanitation 7. Sanitation and waterSmall-scale water technology for livelihoods 8. Sanitation and waterResearch on water productivity in food production 9. Governance and corruptionLowering the cost of starting a new business Fair10. MigrationLowering barriers to migration for skilled workers 11. Malnutrition and hungerImproving infant and child nutrition 12. Communicable diseasesScaled-up basic health services 13. Malnutrition and hungerReducing the prevalence of low-birth-weight (LBW) Bad14. MigrationGuest worker programmes for the unskilled 15. Climate changeOptimal carbon tax 16. Climate changeThe Kyoto Protocol 17. Climate changeValue-at-Risk carbon tax

8. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 Fret-Enomics Homo economicus Efficient Markets Hypothesis

9. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 Might versus Right Source: OECD

10. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 A Theory of Commerce Economics with finance Decision theory Stochastic systems theory Competitive selection

11. www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2005 Discussion What are the frontiers of our ignorance? “Get a big picture grip on the details.” Chao Kli Ning