1. The use of the GAINS_Italy Model for Impact Assessment T. Pignatelli, G. Vialetto ENEA – Technical Unit for Environmental Technologies (UTTAMB) Atmospheric Pollution Laboratory 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014 tiziano.pignatelli@enea.it - giovanni.vialetto@enea.it

2. Historical hints The history of the LRTAP Convention shows as the effects of Air Pollution on ecosystems have been studied for a long time and are now much better known. The need for a tool suitable for scientifically underpinning the development of environmental policies for the protection of the ecosystems became clear in the past decades. The Integrated Assessment Models are powerful instruments to accomplish the task of providing the policy makers with the most comprehensive and adequate information to develop cost-effective policies. 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

3. Concept of Integrated Approach 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014 The “Philosophy” behind the Integrated Approach is inspired by the following principles: Address Air Pollution from different perspectives simultaneously Analyse and define the inter-connections among basic atmospheric science, technology, economics, health effects, environmental impact, social impact, etc. Provides all the useful elements to identify the most appropriate solution, bearing in mind the ultimate objectives of the environment and human health protection, social equity and economic growth, while adopting the cost-effectiveness approach.

4. Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) An Integrated Assessment Model combines the results of different science fields to develop multi-pollutant, multi effects strategies (Control Strategies in the modelling language), eventually resulting in policy measures. Science of the Atmoshere Economics Technology Control Strategy Ecology 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

5. Flow chart of Integrated Assessment Modelling applied to the Air Pollution 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014 Emissions Atmospheric dispersion Depositions & concentrations Health/Env Effects Control technologies Costs of implementation Social aspects GDP/capita costs Anthropogenic activities The several steps and linkages of the Integrated Approach can be represented as in the following flow chart for Air Pollution analysis:

6. Integrated Assessment Models in Europe Several Countries have adopted IAM Systems (ASAM, IMAGE, UKIAM, etc.) In the frame of UN-ECE LRTAP and the European Union the GAINS-Europe Model represents the most relevant example of application of IAM approach for the develolpment of environmental policies, legally binding in international Treaties. In Italy, with the financial support provided by the Italian Ministry for the Environment, since 2002, ENEA has developed, in cooperation with IIASA and Arianet S.r.l. Milan, the Model GAINS_Italy as national version of GAINS_Europe. GAINS_Italy is now part of the larger Project MINNI (National Integrated Model to support Internationa Negotiation on A. P.) 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

7. The MINNI Modelling System Atmospheric Transfer Matrices AMS: Atmospheric Modelling System AMS-Italia GAINS-Italia GAINS: Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies Emission Projections 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

8. The Gains-Italy Model flow chart SO 2, NO x, NH 3, COV, PM + 6 GHGs Dep S, N (ox, red), Conc PM 2.5, PM 10, NO 2 LER due PM2.5, O 3 premature deaths Ecosystems (acidification, eutrophication) Cost_Effectivenes s Optimization OFF GAINS 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014 Costs

9. Gains-Italy on line 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014 In the frame of the agreement between ENEA and Italian Ministry for the Environment, GAINS_Italy is now available online for Users like the Administrative Regions Experts, to allow them to develop their own emission scenarios, autonomously. As well GAINS_Italy is open to the general public to disseminate the results of the ENEA analyses on air pollution, and experts from other Research Institutions (e.g. Konkuk University and NIER – South Korea) for joint researches with ENEA Links to GAINS_Italy : http://gains-it.bologna.enea.it/gains/IT/index.login?login From the MINNI Project homepage http://www.minni.org

10. Impact Analysis 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014 Similarly to GAINS_Europe the Impact Indicators in GAINS_Italy are related to : Impact on Ecosystems in terms of Acidification and eutrofication Impact on Human health in terms of Life Expectancy reduction for exposure of the population to PM2.5 and premature deaths due to exposure to Ozone The impact is strongly related with the meteorology and therefore in GAINS_Italy 4 ATMs are implemented ( 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007) plus the average (AVG) ATM

11. Sulfur Oxidized deposition Deposition of Sulphur Oxides, Average ATM, No Climate Policy scenario Comparison between 2010 and 2020 results 20102020 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

12. Nitrogen Oxidized deposition 20102020 Deposition of Nitrogen Oxidized, Average ATM, No Climate Policy scenario Comparison between 2010 and 2020 results

13. Nitrogen Reduced deposition 20102020 Deposition of Nitrogen Reduced, Average ATM, No Climate Policy scenario Comparison between 2010 and 2020 results

14. Ozone impact indicator AOT40 Forest Mappe di AOT40 Forest, anno meteorologico medio, scenario NO-CP (No Climate Policy) 20102020 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

15. Eutrophication Percentage (%) of unprotected ecosystems, AVG ATM, No Climate Policy Scenario - Comparison between 2010 and 2020 results 20102020 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

16. Health Impact – PM 2.5 Life Expectancy Reduction (LER), AVG ATM, No Climate Policy Scenario - Comparison between 2010 and 2020 results 20102020 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

17. Health Impact – Ozone Premature Deaths, AVG ATM, No Climate Policy Scenario - Comparison between 2010 and 2020 results 20102020 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

18. 2007 Inter-annual Meteorological Variability 2003 1999 2005 PM 2.5 concentrations at 2010 at different meteorological years, No Climate Policy scenario

19. 2007 Inter-annual Meteorological Variability 2003 1999 2005 AOT40F at 2020 at different meteorological years, No Climate Policy scenario 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014

20. Conclusions Integrated Assessment Modelling is a powerful instrument to analyse the effects of Air Pollution on the environment and the human Health, from different perspectives and simultaneously. IAM allows to highlight national peculiarities and focus the attention on the issues of major impact, also identifying the areas of the country where the impact is higher and therefore more effective measures are needed. IAM allows the experts to provide the policy makers with useful elements, scientifically underpinned, to develop more cost-effective policies to combat the adverse effects of Air Pollution. 24 th CCE Workshop and 30 th Task Force Meeting – Rome, Italy 7-10, April, 2014