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Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win AFWA WG-CSAB Update Spring 2012 Dr. John Zapotocny.

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Presentation on theme: "Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win AFWA WG-CSAB Update Spring 2012 Dr. John Zapotocny."— Presentation transcript:

1 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win AFWA WG-CSAB Update Spring 2012 Dr. John Zapotocny

2 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Overview Current Operations Backup for COPC Partners DMSP Status Modeling WRF UK Model Ensembles HPC Configuration Initiatives GSI-WRF Integration Aerosol Modeling AFW-WEBS 2

3 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 3 Backup for COPC Partners NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center Backup provided by 15 OWS (Scott AFB, IL) SPC real world backups in past year - 1 AWC real world backups in past year – 0 (4 stand-by instances due to AWC power issues) Successful backup exercises – 6 (4 for AWC, 2 for SPC; severe thunderstorm watch issued/verified during last SPC exercise) Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) Backup provided by 2 WS (Offutt AFB, NE) Real world backups in past year – 4 Successful backup exercises – 1 NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Backup provided by 2 WS (Offutt AFB, NE) Real world backups in past year – 4 Successful backup exercises – 2

4 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win REMOVED Slide 4 for Public Web Posting

5 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win REMOVED Slide 5 for Public Web Posting

6 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win REMOVED Slide 6 for Public Web Posting

7 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win REMOVED Slide 7 for Public Web Posting

8 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 8 Global NWP United Kingdom Met Office Model UKMO Model at AFWA  Initialization grids obtained from Exeter  Model runs 4x/day at 20 km resolution to 240 hours  Provides initial/lateral boundary conditions for WRF regional runs  Standard products available via AFW-WEBS  Gridded data sharing limited to DoD & allies

9 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 9 Ensemble Modeling Probability Products: QPF Thresholds, Precip Type, Snowfall, Cloud Cover, Lightning, Hail Size, Dust Lofting Potential, Severe TRW, Blizzard, Wind Gusts, Ceiling/Visibility, Wind Chill, Heat Index, Haboob Threat  Global Ensemble 2x/day  NUOPC multi-model inputs (GFS, GEM, NOGAPS) forecasts to 240 hours  WRF-based Global & Regional Ensembles 2x/day  Global to 144 hours  12 km Nests to 48 hours  4 km Nests to 24 hours  10 members using varying physics and lower boundary conditions  Training & Outreach  Working with forecasters & decision makers  Formal training via CBT and COMET

10 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 10 WRF Ensembles Global & Regional 50 knot wind gust probability at 19Z 58 knots observed at 1911Z Black contour = where individual ensemble member forecasted 40 knots sustained Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Tropical Stripe Global 40 km WRF Ensembles 4 km SWA WRF Ensemble 12 km WRF Ensemble Regions

11 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 11 Computing Capacity: Unclassified: 68 TFlps Classified: 23 TFlps Total: 91 TFlps Power : Available: 1,225 Kw HPC Usage: 308 Kw R&D 256 Cores 2.5 TFlps Prod8: Spec Models/Ensembles 1280 Cores 12.5 TFlps Dev8: Dev/Test 192 Cores 2.0 TFlps High Performance Network UNCLASSIFIED AFWA HPC System As of Mar 2012

12 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 12 RegionModelRes.Len. AfghanWRF1.6730 South KoreaWRF1.6730 NevadaWRF1.6730 ColombiaWRF1.6730 AlaskaWRF1.6730 TurkeyWRF1.6730 CONUSWRF472 GlobeUM20240/384 GCW-EWRF20/30144 GCW-P (PAIS)WRF2072 Post-ProcessingWRF45/15 Mx & Recovery 4800 2400 3600 1200 00Z12Z06Z18Z00Z 28 OWS 02-06Z 120hr hazards28 OWS 14-18Z 120hr hazards 17 OWS 04-10Z AK 120hr Sfc / 48hr Hazards17 OWS 15-22Z Korea JOAF 120hr All-charts 15 th /25 th /26 th OWS 0430-09Z—All 48hr prod17 OWS 17-00Z Pacific AOR All 48hr Production AFSOUTH 06-10Z All 120hr production21 OWS 18-21Z 48hr hazards 21 OWS 06-09Z 120hr sfc/cloud OWS Production Cycle as of Oct 2010 3DWF: 24 Cores/hr WRF-V (Volcano): 96 Cores/hr Re-WRF: 144 Cores/hr Global ensemble: 10 members GCW-P (PAIS): 20km, 57 levels N.H./S.H. (dashed) Tropical (solid) HPC – PROD 9 Projected Utilization Summer ‘12 Ensemble CONUS GCW-E Tropics GCW-E N.H./S.H. GCW-P Ensemble CONUS GCW-E Tropics GCW-E N.H./S.H. GCW-P

13 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 4800 2400 3600 1200 00Z12Z06Z18Z00Z 1300 Ensemble Characteristics “Design-to-fit 10 members 4 km domain resolution (Area: 400 x 400) 48 h forecast length Ens RegionModelRes.Len. AfghanWRF1.6730 South KoreaWRF1.6730 NevadaWRF1.6730 ColombiaWRF1.6730 AlaskaWRF1.6730 TurkeyWRF1.6730 Mx & Recovery HPC – SPROD 9 Projected Utilization Summer 2012 Ens

14 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 4800 2400 3600 1200 00Z12Z06Z18Z00Z 1300 Ensembles consist of 10 members Ensemble solution is “design-to-fit” All domains at 4 km RegionModelAreaRes.Len. SWAMEPS (GFS)1000x450472 East AsiaMEPS (GFS)600x450472 SomaliaMEPS (GFS)400x500472 TropicalMEPS (GFS)400x400454 Spec GEPS Misc.1 deg240 Mx & Recovery HPC – PROD 8 Projected Utilization Summer ‘12 PROD 5/7 support contract ends 1 Mar 2012

15 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 15 Initiatives

16 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 16 GSI-WRF Integration Establish working GSI prototype on AFWA HPC Currently running on Dev 8 Producing a 48-hr forecast at 12Z cycle 6-hr init from 6Z cycle Full DA for 6Z and 12Z run GSI based NH WRF with initial satellite data assimilation Initially planned: COSMIC and AMSU-A -- completed Additional: HIRS3 and HIRS4 – completed Imminent: WINDSAT Actively working: AIRS, IASI, and ASCAT

17 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 17 Working Prototype WRFVAR/GSI Comparison Configure Parallel Runs Conduct Parallel Runs Statistical Analysis DTC Community Capability Cost Analysis Community Funding Decision Phase 2 Decision GSI Operational Transition Optimize AFWA Pre-Processing Configure Code for ops efficiency GSI Sustainment Participate in GSI Review Committee Establish New Satellite Data Flows Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 GSI Integration Schedule Dec 11 – Mar 12 Apr 12 – 15 May 12 Apr 12 – Fall 2012 15 May 12 – 1 Aug 12 Aug 12 – Sep 12 LEGEND Major Activity Planned/In progress Complete Sep 12 – Jan 13 Sep 12 Sep 12 – Jan 13 Mar 12 – May 12 Sep 12 Phase 1 Phase 2 IOC

18 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 18 DTA (GFS & WRF based) GFS DTA ½ degree resolution, 4 cycles/day out to 72 hours, 2 cycles/day out to 180 hours WRF DTA 15 km resolution, 4 cycles/day out to 48 hours Dust concentration and Dust visibility products Both use Ginoux source regions Aerosol Modeling Dust Transport Application & WRF-Chem WRF-Chem AFWA is developing WRF-Chem based aerosol forecasts (including dust) with transition to Ops planned in CY2013 WRF-chem simulates the emission, turbulent mixing, transport, transformation, and fate of trace gases and aerosols. The WRF Atmospheric Chemistry Working Group is guiding the development of WRF-chem.

19 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 19 AFW-WEBS Update Recent Improvements Google Earth/Maps Selective 5m resolution over Google Premium 15m dataset Global 90m resolution terrain w/ HRTE in AFG Add’l base maps—Imagery/Map/Chart Will continue to add base map options North America roads now available Global planned First instance of OWS FITL products (USAFE) Other regions planned for global product Data format conflicts being worked Global Ensemble (GEPS) WRF 1.67km/3DWF windows Initial polar-orbiter imagery for SWA MODIS/DMSP/NOAA/METOP https://weather.af.mil

20 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 20 AFW-WEBS Up Next Transition from JAAWIN Port over remaining capabilities Robust improved user interface Increase METSAT resolution Degraded due to database capacity Capacity now tripled Global polar-orbiter imagery WxSnapshot Interactive site information Skew-T, meteogram, 5-day, Stoplight Space weather Hemispheric WRF Mesoscale ensembles Single-site radar application Robust low-bandwidth capability

21 Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Questions? 21

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