1. Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

2. 18 Months ago….  No detailed picture of how climate might impact the region  No robust emissions inventory nor understanding of policy implications  Economic implications of climate change for the region unknown ?

3. The ‘Bottom Line’ - what we need to deliver  Enhanced resilience of our infrastructure, communities and business and natural environment to climate change  Reductions in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions of 80% - by 2050  Opportunities for competitive advantage and economic diversification realised

4. What is Climate Change Adaptation?  measures to moderate and cope with climate change impacts  not a one-off activity, but a continuous and incremental set of activities. Adaptation  Physical actions e.g: raising the height of sea defences Increasing ventilation / cooling in buildings  Building ‘ Adaptive Capacity ’ e.g: Raising awareness of impacts Tools / context etc for decision makers

5. Coping range Vulnerability Time Climate variable Critical threshold Planning time horizon Future Implementation of adaptation Decision to adapt Lag New coping range New critical threshold PresentPast Slide courtesy of UKCIP Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation

6. What can we expect in the North East?  Changing weather patterns  Warmer, wetter winters  Hotter, drier summers  Reduction in soil moisture in summer  Increase in ‘high intensity’ rainfall events  Polarisation of rainfall  Higher incidence and severity of storm events  Changes is biodiversity  Changing patterns of public usage – natural environment

8. Resolution…

9. Issues… Does not consider: Altitude Topography Proximity to coast etc Gives: Broad, generic data – Warmer, wetter winters Hotter, drier summers

10. Climate Change Adaptation in the North East…

11. 3 Data Resolutions……. RegionalSub-regionalDistrict 3 Spatial Levels…

12. Environment Agency Regional Weather Impact Generator Climate Change (2050s)…

13. Impacts…

14. Earwig modelling… Does consider: Altitude Topography Proximity to coast etc Gives: (caveat) High resolution Considerably more detailed Allows understanding of impacts at a level that enables ACTION

15. Why choose the 2050s?  Climate change is already happening  Stopping GHGs today will not prevent it  CC over next 30-50 yrs due to historic emissions  Within long-term planning horizons

16. UK CLIMATE PROJECTIONS 2009

17. Summer average temperature 2080 +3.7 ºC 2040 +2.2 ºC 2020 +1.5 ºC 17 NE England central estimate Medium emissions Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than 5.8ºC North East Study2 – 2.3°C

18. For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases 18 Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress 2080 -17% 2040 -10% 2020 -5% For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -35% and very unlikely to be higher than +1% NE England central estimate Medium emissions North East Study mostly ~5% up to 10%

19. For rainfall we see significant winter increases 19 Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure 2080 +14% 2040 +9% 2020 +4% For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +2% and very unlikely to be higher than +32% NE England central estimate Medium Emissions North East Study 8 to 20%

20. Relative sea level rise (medium emissions, 50 th percentile) 20 2080 Alnmouth: 30cm Saltburn: 34cm 2040 Alnmouth:14cm Saltburn: 16cm North East Study 30cm

22. Extreme temperatures Cold1.1 to 1.7 ºC (remains sub-zero) Hot 2.6 to 3.1 ºC North East Outputs…

23. 3ºC doesn’t sound like much … … it represents a rise in temperature comparable with the global heating that occurred between the last Ice Age (15,000 years ago) and the 18th Century this is projected for the 2050s

24. 20032050 Changes in our communities…

26. We’re getting the data – we need to use it (wisely!)

27. “We are already seeing in the North East the thinking, action and sense of purpose to deliver real progress on fighting climate change”. Joan Ruddock, Department of Energy and Climate Change Minister, 2009