1. A REPORT PRODUCED BY THE CENTER FOR SOCIAL ORGANIZATION OF SCHOOLS JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY NOVEMBER 2008 Dropouts in the Pueblo City Schools: Characteristics and Possibilities for Prevention and Recovery

2. Background Governor Ritter declares goal of decreasing the dropout rate in Colorado 50% in ten years and establishes P-20 council to include subcommittee to examine dropout prevention and recovery Several foundations establish Statewide Dropout Initiative, including  Colorado Children’s Campaign  Colorado Foundation for Families and Children  Colorado Youth for a Change  Donnell-Kay Foundation Pueblo City Schools participates in the data analysis initiative with Johns Hopkins University.

3. Research Questions: How can understanding the behavioral characteristics of dropouts in the Pueblo City Schools help inform efforts for dropout prevention and recovery? To what extent are current 9 th graders and MS students displaying warning signals of a potential dropout outcome?

4. Description of Research Study Analysis used de-identified student level administrative data Followed 2006-07 secondary students back in time 4 years Full data available for 387 dropouts (of 457 in CDE records) Identified characteristics distinguishing dropouts from graduates and others still in school

5. Overview of the Analysis Dropout characteristics  Demographic characteristics  Status characteristics  H.S. behavioral characteristics  Attendance  Behavior (suspensions)  Course failure (semester failing grades)  Middle school warning signals Warning signals among current 6 th and 9 th grade students in Pueblo Recommendations for Action

6. Demographic Characteristics of Pueblo Dropouts

7. Gender Distribution of Dropouts Same as in H.S. Population

8. Ethnicity Disproportionately Hispanic

9. Age Distribution of Dropouts Average dropout age was 16

10. Status Characteristics of Pueblo Dropouts

11. Grade Level of Dropouts Majority 10 th and 11 th Graders

12. Credits Short of Graduation Requirement Roughly half of dropouts in grades 9-12 were more than 10 credits short of 22 required for graduation (but analysis couldn’t address issue of required courses for graduation).

13. Summary of Age by Credits Short of Graduation Analysis See separate handout for more detailed analysis

14. Other Status Characteristics Just 5% of dropouts were new to the district (no record going back to 2002-03) About one in ten had no record of attendance in district in 2005-06 (but half of those had some prior record in district) Dropouts were not disproportionately special education students

15. Behavioral Characteristics of Pueblo Dropouts

16. Behavioral Warning Signals To what extent are dropouts giving signals (even years in advance) that they are at risk of not graduating? To what extent is a dropout outcome in Pueblo related to the ABCs identified in prior research: Attendance Behavior Course Failure

17. Attendance 2006-07 H.S. students with less than 90% attendance (absent at least 18 days) in 2005-06

18. Attendance Signals from Dropouts Percent of 2006-07 H.S. students with less than 90% attendance (absent at least 18 days) in 9 th Grade Year

19. Dropouts’ Middle School Attendance Students who eventually dropped out had lower rates of 8 th grade attendance than non-dropouts But more than half (55%) of eventual dropouts had 8 th grade attendance rates of 90% or better (compared to 77% of non-dropouts in grades 9-12) Interventions to increase middle school attendance are crucial, but won’t necessarily capture and address needs of all students at risk of dropping out

20. Behavior Percent of students with at least one suspension over past four years

21. Role of Attendance and Behavior Problems in the Dropout Outcome Dropouts are giving early warning signals with poor attendance in 9 th grade (and to some extent in middle school as well) Dropouts were at least twice as likely as non- dropouts to have behavior problems But more than half of dropouts had no suspensions over four years There is a notable group of dropouts in Pueblo with relatively good attendance and behavior

22. Course Failure Previous research points to the 9 th grade transition as crucial Evidence in other districts that probability of graduation decreases steadily with each 9 th grade course failure Analysis focused on the first 12 semester grades in the 9 th grade year (data for 312 of the dropouts available)

23. High Levels of 9 th Grade Failure among Dropouts Percent of 2006-07 Dropouts with Different Levels of 9 th Grade Semester Failures

24. Difference in 9 th Grade Failure Rate between Graduates and Dropouts Percent of students with no 9 th grade semester failures

25. Attendance and 9 th Grade Failure To what extent was 9 th grade failure related to attendance? Overall, there was a relatively strong relationship between attendance and course passing among 9 th graders (correlation of 0.5) But among those dropouts with at least one semester failure in 9 th grade, nearly half (46%) had 9 th grade attendance of 90% or better, and about one in four (24%) had 9 th grade attendance of 95% or better Even students with good attendance are failing courses and eventually dropping out of school

26. Prior Achievement and 9 th Grade Failure To what extent was 9 th grade failure related to lack of academic proficiency? Lack of proficiency on 8 th grade tests predicted some (but not all) of 9 th grade failure Among all students (non-dropouts included) who were not proficient in math, 45% had no 9 th grade failures (55% had at least one failure) But even those 2006-07 dropouts who were proficient in reading and/or math (half of whom had attendance rates of 90% or better) had very high course failure rates

27. Summary of Dropout Warning Indicators Most dropouts are giving warning signals even years in advance Almost nine in ten dropouts have at least one 9 th grade semester failure (to some extent related to attendance and academic proficiency) A majority of dropouts have poor attendance in 9 th grade and in later high school years, but there is a notable group of dropouts with relatively good attendance Problem behavior (indicated by suspensions) is not as strong a predictor of dropping out as course failure and attendance

28. Recommendations Framework What can be done to address needs of students who have already dropped out? What more can be done to prevent dropout outcomes?

29. Addressing the Needs of Dropouts Most are young enough for recovery within a regular high school system that has mobilized to address their needs Most of the older dropouts need only a few credits and could benefit from older student centers offering H.S. diploma Only a small percentage appear to be too far behind in credits for regular high school and in need of GED programs

30. Mobilization for Preventing Dropout Outcomes Middle School Early Warning Systems and Tiered Interventions Ninth Grade Early Warning Systems and Tiered Interventions Warning Systems and Interventions in 10 th grade and beyond

31. Middle School Students with problems in attendance, behavior, or course failure (particularly math and reading) must be identified early Interventions need to occur during middle school to address problems that will not self-correct

32. Middle School Warning Signals in Pueblo Among recent 6 th graders (2006-2007) in Pueblo: Nearly one in four had at least one course failure (F) on transcript One in five had attendance less than 90% (three in ten among 8 th graders) One in seven had at least one suspension in 2006- 07 There were higher rates for all these signals among males, minority students, and high poverty students

33. Ninth Grade Early warning systems in 9 th grade need to focus on: Remediation needs (identified from middle school records) Attendance problems (identified from middle school or first absences in 9 th grade) Students at risk for course failure (identified by teacher during first month of class)

34. Ninth Grade Warning Signals in Pueblo Among 2006-07 9 th graders in Pueblo: More than half (53%) had at least one semester “F” on transcript, and one in three (33%) had at least 3 Fs More than one in three had attendance rate of less than 90% One in three had at least one suspension over the previous four years There were higher rates for all these signals among males, minority students, and high poverty students

35. Important Ninth Grade Interventions Orientation for all students and parents, emphasizing importance of attendance and passing courses Intensive summer transition programs for students identified as at risk from middle school Interventions implemented within first month of school for those showing attendance and course performance problems

36. A 3-Tier Prevention Model 1. Schoolwide programs aimed at alleviating 75% or so of the problem behaviors (attendance, behavior, course performance) 2. Targeted shepherding for the 15% to 20% of students who need additional supports beyond the schoolwide efforts 3. Intensive efforts involving specialists (counselors, social workers, tutors) for the 5% to 10% who need more clinical types of support

37. Features of Effective Interventions for Behavior and Attendance Positive behavior and good attendance are constantly recognized, modeled, and promoted The first absence or incident of misbehavior brings a consistent, personalized, and restorative response Interdisciplinary teams regularly meet to analyze student data, devise solutions, and monitor progress Interventions to improve attendance and behavior allow for continued in-school learning (using out- of school suspensions only to protect school safety)

38. Features of Effective Interventions to Prevent Course Failure Teacher-student conference at first indication of failure (pattern of missing homework, quiz/test failure) Parents and counselor informed at first indication of failure Implementation of extra help or other improvement strategy Monitoring of intervention effectiveness by counselor or grade level team

39. Importance of Recovery Options Reduction of the dropout rate will demand a commitment to providing recovery options within courses, before failure occurs (rather than only afterwards) Recovery options probably need to include opportunities for re-assessment or additional work to avoid a failing grade

40. Analyzing the Need for Policy Change To what extent are students currently offered recovery options before failure occurs? If this is rare, how can we organize a system in which recovery options can work to prevent failure before it sets students behind in credits needed for graduation?

41. Analysis of district data suggests that decreasing the dropout rate and increasing the graduation rate will require a significant decrease in the number of Fs on high school transcripts

42. Responding to Warning Signals in the Later High School Years A small percentage of students give no warning signals by 9 th grade Warning systems have to be sensitive to detect poor attendance patterns or course failure after 9 th grade Interventions need to occur in a timely way before recovery becomes much more difficult At-risk students will need help all along the way to reach high school graduation

43. Recommended Next Steps Analyze the effect of district policies on student ability to successfully pass high school courses and earn credits to remain on track to graduation Collect data on how high school teachers and administrators identify and respond to attendance, behavior, and course failure problems Begin planning for implementation of early warning systems and tiered interventions in selected pilot schools in Fall 2009

44. Dropout Recovery Is Possible Providing avenues for dropouts to receive a high school completion credential is crucial for society But working to prevent dropout outcomes before they occur is even more important A crucial way to begin is by implementing interventions that will increase attendance and course passing rates in 9 th grade

45. For More Information Contact: Dr. Martha Abele Mac Iver Research Scientist Center for Social Organization of Schools Johns Hopkins University mmaciver@csos.jhu.edu www. every1graduates.org