1. Magnetic Fusion Power Development for Global Warming Suppression Jiangang Li 1 (j_li@ipp.ac.cn), Jie Zhang 2, Xuru Duan 3 1. Institute of Plasma Physics,CAS, 2. Shanghai Jiaotong University 3. South West Institute of Physics, CNNC 22nd FEC, Oct.13-18, 2008, Geneva

2. Content Energy Needs in 21st Century Revolution of Energy Sources Can We make Contribution by Fusion Energy Development Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy

3. 16.13 Billion TCE 29.01 Billion TCE 2005—2050 ， average annual growth rate is 1.3% Energy Needs over the World IEA2005

4. Energy Needs in India 0.77 Billion TCE 1.86 Billion TCE IEA2005

5. 1.68 Billion TCE 5.00(6) Billion TCE Energy Needs in China IEA2005 (75% coal at moment and about 60% in 2050)

6. Global Warming Becomes More Apparent IEA2005 CO 2 Emissions Increase with Fuel Consumption Evolution from 1971 to 2004 of World Total Final Consumption by FuelCO 2 Emissions by Fuel Mtoe Mt of CO 2

7. China’s CO 2 emission (5.06 billion ton) –2 nd largest in the world –18% of the total amount –Below the world average level per capita Global Warming Becomes More Apparent 8 IEA2005

8. What if Greenland Breakup and Melt Away ? The Sea level Today If Greenland breakup and melt away The sea level will rise Now Forecast Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt in 1992

9. Technology Innovation to Reduce CO 2 Emission Climate Change Low Carbon Economy Near Zero Emission Energy Technology R&D IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle) CO 2 capture and sequestration R educe the cost of wind and solar power generation 4 th generation nuclear power technique & fusion energy Alternate fuels for transportation Hydrogen energy Revolution of Energy Sources Efforts Made in China

10. 20102020203020402050 Roadmap for Renewable Energy Power Technology-20% in 2050 Wind Solar Biomass Geothermic Hydro 2020 2030 2050 Large-scale development for wind power, steady development for biomass power Breakthrough for solar power, form an integrate renewable industry chain Renewable energy play a leading role Onshore demonstration and generalize Offshore demonstration and generalize Photovoltaic generation plant demonstration connected to the grid Solar heat power plant demonstration connected to the grid Gasification power plant demonstration and generalize Combustion power plant demonstration and generalize heat pump, refrigeration, power generation demonstration and generalize Continuously develop Efforts Made in China 1Mw 5Mw 8-10Mw 10Mw 100Mw 10-100Mw

11. Roadmap for Advanced Nuclear Power Technology-15% in 2050 Efforts Made in China 20102020203020402050 Promotion of 2 nd plus fission reactor Demonstration of 3 rd advanced PWR Promotion of 3 rd advanced PWR Tryout depleted fuel reprocessing of PWR Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for PWR Tryout depleted fuel reprocessing of fast reactor Demonstration of fast reactor Fast reactor module 4 th generation of commercial nuclear fast reactor Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for fast reactor Demonstration of fusion reactor Commercial fusion reactor Nuclear Commercialization of 3 rd generation nuclear power 3 rd generation nuclear power bulk-built & fast reactor module established Fast reactor Steady developed & fusion energy breakthroughs made 2020 2030 2050

12. Efforts Made in China Accounts for 15% of total installed electric capacity Replace 1billon ton of coal Formation of thermal reactor - fast reactor binary nuclear power system Accounts for 8% of total installed electric capacity Replace 0.4billon ton of coal Develop nuclear power plant built in coastal area, east and central of China Accounts for 5% of total installed electric capacity Replace 0.18 billon ton of coal Develop nuclear power plant in coastal area 60 400! 200

13. Without control With control 6% 17% 8% 28% 41% Efforts Made in China

14. Can We make Contribution by Fusion Energy Development An environmentally responsible source of almost limitless energy Fusion Scientist: Making a “Sun” on Earth

15. Can Fusion Play a Role in This Century When? 2018-2038 ITER 2030-2050 DEMO 2040-2060 Proto-Type 2050-- First Power Plant 2060:5-7 GW power plant 2070:35 208070 2090140 2100280 (x3=450!) How? 5 % of total primary energy Fusion power plant in 2100 China : 150 India : 150 EU : 50 US : 50 Japan : 30 KOREA: 20 Total: 450 GW plant

16. Questions – How long will it take? Next 50 years – Why’s it taking so long? Technical difficulties, limited financial and human resources Do we really need another (moving) 50 years? It took only 8 years for US land on moon in 60s! –Can we strengthen and accelerate the path to fusion power?

17. Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy New era of Fusion : Significant progresses have been achieved within 50 years ITER, broader approach, new superconducting devices in Asia, urgent need for new generation of energy. More serious consideration of DEMO GAP analysis, Road map, FAST track…

18. GAP Analysis: 30-35 years to Demo 10 year 10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years Build ITER Run ITER Build Run Build + IFMIF+IFMIF DEMO DEMO proto-type

19. Can we Speed Up Fusion Development A successful ITER project via strong international cooperation Start IFMIF site decision as soon as possible Start DEMO design with strong industry involvement now Most important is to demonstration of electricity generation within 20 years with reduced mission

20. Expanded International Cooperation ITER JET, JT-60U, JT-60SA ASDEX-U, DIII-D, HL-2A(M), C-Mod EAST, KSTAR, Tore-Supra MAST, NSTX, SST-1, HT-7, TCV, TEXTOR, FTU LHD, W7-X IFMIF(?) Small tokomaks Total: about 1 B $/year exclude ITER ITER JET-class KSATR-class MAST-U-class LHD-class IFMIF Small tokomaks Total: less than 1 B $/y ! Necessary test facilities: magnets, H& CD, remote handling, heat flux.. A CTF

21. EDEMO (within 20 years?) Electricity generation with reduced mission Electricity generation No need real steady state Burning plasma control Sufficient T Breeding As a CTF H 2 production Testing tokamak system availability (reliability, buildability,operability and maintainability) P fusion ~200MW, t = a few hours to weeks Based on existing technologies: Option 1: Pure Fusion A FDF-class with SC coils Or: A ST-type compact device Option 2: Fusion –Fission hybrid Fusion: Q=1-3, P=30-50MW Fission: M= 20-30, Pt = 0.3-1.5GW Or: ITER-type machine with different blanket: Pt =5GW, Pe=1.5GW

22. A More Bold Approach is Needed Why? 天时： Very urgent need for new energy (especially for developing country), fusion is one of very few options and easily convinced by public. 地利： ITER starts in Caderache, fusion need in Korea, Russia, especially China and India. 人和 : Wide cooperation in fusion lasted for 50 years and will be strengthen in future.

23. A More Bold Approach is Needed How?  A quick decision on IFMIF: Site, construction, operation, on schedule!  Early establishment of DEMO/EDEMO design groups with strong involvement from industry  Based on global cooperation (better not fully joint project)  Well organized global teams (EU,US,CN.. Could be a few DEMOs)

24. 24 ASIPP Very Strong Supports from top leaders to public Start a new MCF program ITER-CN with industry Domestic MCF Efforts from China China needs fusion more urgent and would like to be the first user of fusion energy

25. Summary Fusion development comes to a new era with significant progress during past 50 years. It is too long to wait for another 50 year to get electricity by fusion. A much more aggressive approach should be taken with even greater international collaboration towards the early use of fusion energy to meet the urgent needs for energy and global warming suppression.