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Mediterranean Energy Perspectives MENA-OECD Task Force on Energy and Infrastructure 8th Meeting Paris 09. 03. 2012 Pedro Moraleda OME General Director MENA-OECD Task Force on Energy and Infrastructure 8th Meeting Paris 09. 03. 2012 Pedro Moraleda OME General Director
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OME Membership As of December 2011 2
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MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY PERSPECTIVES 2011 Book released in December 2011 Covers 24 countries, 19 of which are modeled separately Uses OME Mediterranean Energy Model compatible with IEA flows Presents supply/demand outlook to 2030 by sector and by fuel Two demand scenarios depicted: Conservative and Proactive A comprehensive and quantitative study done by OME staff in cooperation with member companies and local experts 3
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Electricity production/demand in the South will nearly triple by 2030. 20% could be saved under a different scenario. MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD 4
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CHANGING PATTERNS IN POWER GENERATION 2009 559 TWh 2030 Electricity Efficiency 1535 TWh1229 TWh GENERATION MIX FORECAST SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN -100 -50 0 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 OilCoalGasRenewableNuclear TWh 2009 559 TWh 2030 1229 TWh
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200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand. 32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario. ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDED 6 SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN 16% 14% 5% 17% 6% 5% 49% 50% 40% 3% 6% 18% 14% 15% 2% 13% 28% 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 120 GW321 GW289 GW GW Non-hydro Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 2009 2030 PS 2030 CS
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Over 700 billion Euros will be needed to 2030. Spared gas could compensate the additional cost of clean generation technologies. POWER GENERATION INVESTMENTS 2010-2030 7
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MEDITERRANEAN WIND OUTLOOK 8 Wind generation to increase six fold and South to supply one third of the total by 2030. 68% 17% 15%
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OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR PV 9 Solar PV is expected to grow at a yearly rate of 15.5% in the Mediterranean region (faster in the South). 71% 14% 15%
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OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR CSP 10 South Med countries are expected to produce half of total CSP-based electricity in the region. 51% 33% 16%
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Contact: Pedro Moraleda pedro.moraleda@ome.org Contact: Pedro Moraleda pedro.moraleda@ome.org
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