1. Civil War Termination

2. 10 Deadliest Civil Wars (Based on Battle-Deaths)
Greek Independence (180,000)
Mexican Caste War/Maya Revolt (200,000)
Spanish Civil War (200,000)
Afghanistan (200,000)
US Civil War (650,000)
Russian Civil War (775,000)
Chinese Civil War (838,000)
Vietnam War (985,000)
Chinese Civil War (1,250,000)
Chinese Rebellions 1860* to 1873 (2,450,000)
Would be even deadlier if battle-deaths prior to China’s entry into the world-system in 1860 were included.

3. Civil War Outcomes, 1816-1997 Outcome Complete Defeat 101 51.27 7.92
# of Wars
Percentage of All Wars
Percentage Ending With Formal Agreement
Percentage Followed By Massacre
Average Duration in Years
Percentage Won By Government
Complete Defeat
101
51.27
7.92
57.43
2.27
66.34
Surrender With Amnesty 22
11.17
45.45
9.09
2.17
72.73
Cosmetic Concessions 38
19.29
65.79
5.26
3.43
71.05
Genuine Compromise 31
15.74
90.32
3.23
5.19
N / A
Stalemate 5
2.54
20.00
0.00
5.57
Governmental advantage has been much less pronounced recently – while governments won about 65% of civil wars from 1816 to 1949, they won 54% of wars between 1950 and 1974 and only 37% of wars terminated since then.

4. Civil Warfare Over Time
1816 to 1824
1825 to 1849
1850 to 1874
1875 to 1899
1900 to 1924
1925 to 1949
1950 to 1974
1975 to 1997
Number of Wars 5 22 28 16 23 21 39 43
Average Battle-Deaths
39,400
27,346
119,423
12,993
45,233
140,980
51, 813
32, 902
Average Battle-Deaths Per 10,000
1.6
2.5
2.2
1.3
2.9
4.2
5.0
Average Intensity 24
151 93 89
143 72
134
Average Duration in Years
3.1
1.8
1.1
2.7
4.5
4.4

5. Intervention Over Time
1816 to 1824
1825 to 1849
1850 to 1874
1875 to 1899
1900 to 1924
1925 to 1949
1950 to 1974
1975 to 1997
Number of Wars 5 22 28 16 23 21 39 43
Interv.
Freq.
80.00%
36.36%
25.00%
31.25%
34.78%
23.81%
48.72%
51.16%
Average Number Actors Per Interv.
1.75
1.50
1.14
2.80
3.63
2.20
2.68
3.95
Average Number Troops Per Interv. Per Actor
54,745
36,674
29,193
14,447
16,217
51,587
20,656
47,914

6. Intervention Summary No Pro-Rebel Intervention Pro-Rebel Intervention
No Pro-Government Intervention
119
(60.41%) 24
(12.18%)
Pro-Government Intervention 29
(14.72%) 25
(12.69%)

7. Government Advantage

8. Government Advantage

9. Military Balance and War Outcome

10. Military Balance, Intervention, and Compromise