1. Affordable Housing Delivery: Demographics and a Rationale for Action Affordable Housing Delivery: Demographics and a Rationale for Action Presented to the Housing Advisory Committee, City of San Juan Capistrano, California Victoria Basolo, Ph.D., AICP Associate Professor Department of Planning, Policy, & Design University of California, Irvine July 7, 2004

2. POPULATION Population by place, Orange County, 2000 Low (lighter) High (darker) U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, URL:http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

3. Population, Percent Change 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.

4. Population Density, 1990 & 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.

5. Population by Age Groups, 1990 & 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.

6. Legal Immigration, 1986-2002 Source: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Services and the California Department of Finance, 2003

7. Population Projections, 2000-2020 Source: California Department of Finance, 2000

8. Orange County grew by 18.1% from 1990 to 2000, faster than the State as a whole Over the next 20 years, the County is expected to grow by an additional 22.4% Much of the increase in population will be from natural increase, existing residents maturing through the life cycle Orange County Population Summary

9. HOUSING Housing Units by place, Orange County, 2000 Low (lighter) High (darker) U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, URL:http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

10. Housing Units, Percent Change 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.

11. Homeownership Rates, 1990 & 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.

12. Percent Single-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.

13. Percent Multi-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000* Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3. *Includes mobile homes

14. Owner Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.

15. Rental Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.

16. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3. Median Housing Value and Rent, 1990 & 2000

17. Housing Costs

18. Overcrowding Rates, 1990 & 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 3.

19. Single-Family Multi-Family Units Authorized by Building Permits, 2000 & 2001 Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

20. Orange County housing stock grew by 10.8% from 1990 to 2000, lagging behind demand, as are many of CA housing markets The percentage of residential units authorized by building permits declined from 2000 to 2001 with multi-family showing a very large decrease In 2000, vacancy rates were very low at less than 1% for owner housing and 3% for renter housing Median housing value increased by about 7% and Median contract rent by just over 18% from 1990 to 2000 Overcrowded units increased by 15.7% in the 1990s. Orange County Housing Summary

21. EMPLOYMENT Service Employment by place, Orange County, 2000 Low (lighter) High (darker) U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, URL:http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

22. Employment Change, 1990 to 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.

23. Unemployment Rates, 1990 & 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.

24. Orange County Residents, Employment by Industry, 2000

25. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3. Percent Work and Live in Same County, 1990 & 2000

26. Workplace and Residence, 2000 Live & Work in Same City* Live in Specified City & Work in Orange County* *Includes 33 cities (Aliso Viejo not included) Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census 2000, SF 3

27. The number of Orange County resident employees grew by 3.59% from 1990 to 2000, a much smaller increase than most of the surrounding counties Unemployment increased slightly from 1990 to 2000 Residents are employed in a variety of industries suggesting an overall diversified economy; however, the pattern of residents by type of occupation is uneven. Orange County Employment Summary

28. Regional Outlook

29. Business in Orange County Businesses needs workers Workers need affordable housing

30. Orange Crush Traffic

31. Concentrated Poverty Percent in Poverty, 1999 U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, URL:http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

32. Concentrated Lower-Income Housing Location of Section 8 Voucher Holders, OC Housing Authority, 2003 Based on a sample of 1268 voucher holders under the administration of the OCHA (Basolo, 2003). In cooperation with the OCHA.

33. Growth Management Initiatives, Orange County, 1986-2000* *Special tabulations of growth management initiatives database, Courtesy of Mai Nguyen, Solimar Research Group

34. Economy JobsHousing Traffic Air Quality Community Quality of Life Planning and Developing Housing Within the System of Relations

35. Strategic Action

36. Regional Housing Needs Assessment  SCAG determines existing and future housing needs for communities in the region*  Communities must incorporate these needs into the housing element of the jurisdiction’s General Plan*  Limited “transfer” of housing needs between jurisdictions* *See California Government Code §65584

37. Regional Approach to Housing  A regional agency with participation from all 34 cities and the County to ensure that housing is produced, not simply estimated (RHNA) and “planned”  Uniform and mandatory regulations for inclusionary affordable housing for both single-family and multi- family development  Contributions to affordable housing development through inclusionary units, redevelopment housing set-asides, fees, etc.

38. Cooperative development of programs to link housing and jobs –Loans to employees who stay longer terms with employers and live close to work (sliding scale from full repayment to fully forgiven) –Rental development agreements among employers, developers, and cities/counties (lease up at market and below market rents guaranteed for period of years) –Development incentives to developers building mixed-income housing near job and transportation centers (loans, increased density, land at reduced cost) Local jurisdictions, employers, developers (for profit and not-for-profit), & individuals Cooperative Responses

39. Cooperative Housing Development Fund –Regional fund receiving donations and stream of revenue from employee tax and sales tax –Land Trust (non profit) receiving donations and purchasing properties for permanent affordability Local jurisdictions, employers, developers (for profit and not-for-profit), & individuals Cooperative Responses

40. Cooperative Effort for State Legislation –State tax credits for businesses with employer- assisted housing programs (certified by staff overseeing regional housing fund) –State tax credits for landowners (landlords and owners) who demonstrate proximity of tenant to place of work –Legislation to formalize an Orange County regional agency or compact Local jurisdictions, employers, developers (for profit and not-for-profit), & individuals Cooperative Responses