1. Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique The Nova Scotia GPI Sustainable Transportation Accounts Transport Canada, Ottawa, 19 November, 2007

2. About GPI Atlantic Non-profit, fully independent, research and education organization founded 1997. Based in Halifax, NS; Web site: www.gpiatlantic.org Committed to the development of the Genuine Progress Index (GPI): From indicators to accounts (– After all, GDP is accounting, not indicator, system) Towards full-cost accounting: human, social, natural, and produced capital accounts NS focus ->National and international activities

3. Context is everything GPI & sustainability framework (current and long-term wellbeing) Sustainability as a public issue Strong sustainability definition

4. What kind of world are we leaving our children...?

5. What kind of Canada are we leaving our children? Speaking to the experience and in the language of ordinary Canadians Canada’s premier quality of life More possessions, longer lives But, some disturbing signs

6. Better Off in a Poorer Natural World? Natural resource depletion, species loss Less fish, condition of forests, soils Global warming Stress, obesity, asthma, environmental illness Insecurity, inequality, child poverty Decline of volunteerism

7. Are we living sustainably? Source: Hoggan, James. Globe Presentation: Communicating Sustainability, 2006

8. Reasons For Not Living Sustainably

9. Issues of Concern for Canadians – 2007 Source: TNS Canadian Facts, 2007

10. Top Priority Issues for Government Source: Centre for Research and Information on Canada (CRIC). Portraits of Canada Survey. 2005

11. NS Government has promised to: “demonstrate international leadership by having one of the cleanest and most sustainable environments in the world by the year 2020” (Bill 146: Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act “Becoming the “best place to live” means scoring well on quality of life indicators like those produced by Genuine Progress Index Atlantic” (Opportunities for Sustainable Prosperity. 2006)

12. Framework (1)no substitutability of capitals (2)human society dependent on encompassing ecosystem (3)supply and demand (4)inter-generational and intra-generational equity (who consumes) (5)Precautionary principle (e.g. NS Envt Act)

13. Natural environment Society Economy

14. Brundtland Commission's seminal definition of Sustainable Development “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs... “Even the narrow notion of physical sustainability implies a concern for social equity between generations, a concern that must logically be extended to equity within each generation.” – World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland Commission), 1987. Our Common Future, Oxford University Press, New York.

15. Statistics Canada: 1997, Econnections: Linking the Environment and the Economy: “A consensus has emerged that sustainable development refers at once to economic, social and environmental needs... “A clear social objective that falls out of the definition (of sustainable development) is that of equity, both among members of the present generation and between the present and future generations… “It is clear that the spirit of sustainable development implies that all people have the right to a healthy, productive environment and the economic and social benefits that come with it.”

16. Indicators are Powerful What we measure:  reflects what we value as a society;  determines what makes it onto the policy agenda;  influences behaviour (e.g. students)

17. Why We Need New Indicators - Policy Reasons:  “Economic growth = better off” sends misleading signals to policy-makers and local communities  Vital social, environmental assets + value of unpaid work, free time, equity ignored  Preventive initiatives to conserve and use resources sustainably, to reduce poverty, sickness and greenhouse gas emissions, are blunted and inadequately funded

18. “The more the economy grows, the better off we are” - Sending the wrong message?

19. ‘Healthy’ Economy = Healthy Canada?  More equals better? - pollution, crime sickness make economy grow: $ spent  Resource depletion as economic gain?  More consumption, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, make economy grow: e.g.US GDP turnaround

20. Measuring Wellbeing:  Health, free time, unpaid work (voluntary and household), and education have value  Sickness, crime, disasters, pollution are costs  Natural resources (e.g. forests) are capital assets  Reductions in greenhouse gas, crime, poverty, ecological footprint are progress  Growing equity signals progress In the GPI…

21. The Genuine Progress Index Time Use Economic Value of Unpaid Childcare and Housework Economic Value of Civic and Voluntary Work Value of Leisure Time Working Time and Employment

22. Human Impact on the Environment Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sustainable Transportation Ecological Footprint Analysis Solid Waste Natural Capital Soils and Agriculture Forests Marine Environment/Fisheries Water Resources / Water Quality Energy Air Quality Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: Components

23. Social and Human Capital Population Health Educational Attainment Costs of Crime Living Standards Income Distribution Debt and Assets Economic Security Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: Components

24. Valuing Natural Resource Health For example, a healthy forest effectively: Prevents soil erosion/sediment control Protects watersheds Regulates climate regulation/sequesters carbon Provides habitat for wildlife / biodiversity Supports recreation, tourism, aesthetic quality Provides timber

25. Valuing wetlands a/c function Flood prevention shoreline protection, erosion prevention storm control water purification storage and recycling of human waste spawning and nursery habitat for fish and shellfish

26. Wetland functions (ctd) Carbon sequestration and storage sanctuary, breeding, nursery habitat for terrestrial, near-shore, & migratory birds feeding habitat for terrestrial wildlife nutrient recycling, production & storage recreation, education, science waste treatment food production

27. A healthy wetland performs all those functions optimally These functions have vital economic and social value. So valuation is necessary NTREE: Wetlands one of 7 core indicators of sustainable development for Canada - proxy for biodiversity Economic valuations secondary - derived from physical indicators of function, performance. Step 1 = identify KEY indicators of multiple function.

28. Forests: Age and species structure = key indicators of forest health vs timber cover NS forests have seen a sharp decline in valuable species such as white pine, eastern hemlock, yellow birch, and oak Forests more than 80 years now account for just over 1% of NS forest land

29. Examples of forest results

30. % Forest Area by Age Class, NS 1958-99

31. Volume 1, Figure 4

33. Volume 1, Figure 6

34. Volume 1, Figure 3

35. Natural Age Limits Maritime tree species White Ash 100-200 American Beech 300-400 White Birch 120-150 Yellow Birch 150-250 East’n Hemlock 300-800 Red Maple 100-150 Sugar Maple 300-400 Red Oak200-350 Red Pine200-250 White Pine200-450 Black Spruce200-250 Red Spruce250-400 White Spruce150-200

36. Old Forests Store More Carbon A study published in Science, reported that:... replacing old-growth forest by young Kyoto stands... will lead to massive carbon losses to the atmosphere mainly by replacing a large pool with a minute pool of regrowth and by reducing the flux into a permanent pool of soil organic matter. (Schulze et. al. 2000) NS: 38% decline carbon storage = $1.3 billion

37. Changes in Atlantic Bird Species Populations

38. Recreational Brook Trout Caught and Retained in Nova Scotia 1975-1995

39. Volume 1, Figure 32

40. Excess clearcutting, loss of natural age & species diversity have resulted in loss of:  valuable species  wide diameter and clear lumber that fetch premium market prices  resilience and resistance to insect infestation  wildlife habitat, & bird population declines  forest recreation values -> nature tourism

41. This represents substantial depreciation of a valuable natural capital asset = accounting language.  decline in forested watershed protection & 50% drop in shade-dependent brook trout  soil degradation and leaching of nutrients that can affect future timber productivity  substantial decline in carbon storage capacity & increase in biomass carbon loss decline in essential forest ecosystem services

42. The Good News: Volume 2: Best Forestry Practices in N. S. Selection harvesting increases forest value and provides more jobs Shift to value-added creates more jobs Restoration forestry is a good investment What incentives can encourage restoration NB: Parallels to wetland restoration efforts

43. Agriculture and Soils Traditional measures of the health of the agriculture industry (e.g. total farm cash receipts) do not account for: –Soil degradation –Loss of habitat/biodiversity –Loss of farmland –Long-term economic viability

44. Ratio: Total Farm Debt to Net Farm Income for NS 1970-1999: Early warning signal…?? – 7-year update

45. Natural Resource Accounts are not enough! - Onus on producers Measuring the Demand Side of the Sustainability Equation e.g. Forests: 20% of world’s people consume 84% paper; 20% consume 1% The equity dimension of sustainability Reporting to Canadians on impacts of behaviour - e.g. GHGs

46. Ecological footprint Demonstrates relationship between income, consumption, and environmental impact. Higher income groups have larger footprint: 30% of people = 70% of global resource consumption and waste generation It cuts through illusions that we can improve the living standards of the poor without also examining the consumption patterns of the rich and that we can “maintain” current excess

47. Local consumption patterns have global consequences Local consumption may involve natural resource depletion far away We may indulge unsustainably high levels of consumption in Canada and NS, perhaps even without depleting local resources, but rather by "appropriating the carrying capacity" of other countries through trade

48. Current Footprint Exceeds Sustainable Capacity of Earth If everyone in world consumed at Canadian levels, we’d need 4 planets Earth to provide the necessary resources + waste assimilation capacity Raising global living standards to current levels in the wealthy countries would therefore put an intolerable strain on the Earth's resources.

49. Global “ecological overshoot” is temporarily possible by: –depleting reserves of natural capital (e.g., natural gas, old growth forests); –over-harvesting renewable resources to the brink of collapse (e.g. fish stocks); –causing irreversible ecological damage (e.g. species extinction) –overloading environment with waste products (air & water pollution, GHGs - climate change, ozone depletion, etc.)

51. UN scenarios

52. Annual Deficit becomes an Ecological Debt

54. Ecological Footprint Time Series, Canada, 1981-2000

55. Ecological Footprint Projections, Canada, 1995-2020

56. Ecological Footprint, 1961-2003

57. Beyond indicators and towards policy shift… E.g. NS voluntary work worth $1.9 bill/year Preventable chronic disease costs NS $500m in excess health care costs –> DHPP; costs tobacco, obesity, inactivity –> e.g. HRM planning process; smoke-free legislation Loss in forest “value” – NSFPA / KPMG / DNR Full CBAs – e.g. Solid Waste; Halifax Harbour cleanup …. Etc.

58. Transportation = a key Footprint component GPI measures of human impact on environment therefore include: Energy use GHG and pollutant emissions Solid waste generation & management Transportation

59. Sustainable Transportation An evaluation of the sustainability of the N.S. transportation system, including: –Transport activity by mode –Environmental impacts –Economic and social impacts + Direct, indirect, non-market, long- term impacts (full-cost accounting)

60. Framework rests on definition of sustainable transportation Definition = base for goals –> objectives –> indicators –> measures The three-part GPI Atlantic definition is based on previous work in this area by – The Canadian Centre for Sustainable Transportation (CST); and – The European Union (TERM)

61. Environmental Component Limits emissions and waste to levels below the planet’s ability to absorb them, Uses renewable resources at or below their rates of generation, Uses non-renewable resources at or below the rates of development of renewable substitutes, Re-uses and recycles its components, and Maintains the integrity of ecosystems. A Sustainable Transportation System…

62. Societal Component meets the basic access needs of society safely, in a manner consistent with human and ecosystem health, including minimizing noise, and promotes equity within and between generations A Sustainable Transportation System…

63. Economic Component is affordable, operates fairly and efficiently, offers choice of transport mode, supports sustainable local, regional, and national economies, and identifies and accounts for the full costs of transportation systems in an equitable manner A Sustainable Transportation System…

64. Keys to Sustainable Transport Decrease excessive motor vehicle transport and increase use of more sustainable modes (e.g. transit, and non-motorized) Decrease energy consumption and increase fuel efficiency Increase access to public services and transit Increase government spending on public transit

65. Transport Activity Indicators The movement of people and goods A foundation for the other indicators as the level of motor vehicle travel is closely linked to many impacts, including fuel consumption, GHG emissions, accidents, land-use, etc.

66. Source: National Resources Canada – Office of Energy Efficiency – 2005 Comprehensive Energy Database

69. Transport Activity Indicator Trends Passenger Kilometres up 21% since 1990 (per capita up 18%) N.S. has 3 rd highest per capita passenger kms and is 24% higher than the national average 75% of commuters drive to work instead of carpooling, taking public transit, walking, cycling, etc.

70. Environmental Indicators Increased reliance on motorized transport has implications for Nova Scotia’s environment Environmental impacts (such as air pollution, GHG emissions, land use etc) result in costs to society that are not captured by market economy measures

71. Source: National Resources Canada – Office of Energy Efficiency – 2005 Comprehensive Energy Database

74. Source: Environment Canada National Inventory Report 2006

77. NS On-Road Carbon Monoxide (CO) Emissions: 1990-2000

78. NS On-Road Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emissions: 1990-2000

79. NS On-Road Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions: 1990-2000

80. NS On-Road Sulfur Dioxide (SO x ) Emissions: 1990-2000

81. NS On-Road Nitrous Oxide (NO x ) Emissions: 1990-2000

82. NS On-Road Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Emissions: 1990-2000

83. NS Combined On-Road Air Emissions: 1990-2000

84. NS - Tonnes of Road Salt Used: 1990-2004

85. NS – Number of Claims for Well Contamination from Road Salting

86. Total Land Area Consumed by Automobiles (m 2 ) per Capita

87. Environmental Indicator Trends Energy use (per 100,000) up 11% since 1990 N.S. 5 th highest energy use (per 100,000) in Canada – 18% higher than national average NS GHG emissions per capita up 21%: 7 th highest in Canada – 12% above national av. Air pollutants (CACs per capita) down 36% Road salt use up 29% (1990 – 2004); Claims of well contamination from salt up 73% NS road density above thresholds at which some vertebrates negatively impacted (moose)

88. Social Indicators Impacts of transportation on people and communities, including accidents, health, liveability, aesthetics, access to public services, and travel options / equity Most social costs are not captured by market-based analyses

89. Nova Scotia – Modal Share of Transportation to Work 1996 and 2001 Source: Statistics Canada 1996, 2001 Census of Population

90. Source: Transport Canada - Canadian Motor Vehicle Traffic Collision Statistics 1985-2005

91. Source: Transport Canada - Canadian Motor Vehicle Traffic Collision Statistics 2000-05

92. Source: Transport Canada - Canadian Motor Vehicle Traffic Collision Statistics 2005

94. Social Indicator Trends Fatalities from road accidents (per 100,000) down 18% since 2000; injuries down 31% N.S. 10 th in country and 15% below the national average for road fatalities (per 100,000) and 20% below for injuries Access to public transit declined in N.S. between 1990 and 2003 Average commuting distance in NS was the second highest in Canada in 2001

95. Economic Indicators Impacts on economic development, productivity, wealth, available services Transportation activities provide benefits, and also impose significant costs on residents, businesses, and government Investment needed to improve public transit and transport efficiency – therefore transit spending as sign of commitment

96. Source: Transport Canada – Transportation in Canada 2003, 2006

98. Nova Scotia – Top 4 Household Expenditures as a % of Total Spending

99. Indicator Trends 2005/06 N.S. gov’t spending on public transit accounted for only 8% of spending on road transportation (but up from 4.5% in 1990) N.S. ranks 6 th in Canada for spending on transit and is well below national average of 15.7% In 2002 transportation accounted for 16% of household costs in N.S., up from 13% in 1997

100. Full-Cost Accounting: 3 principles - non-market, internal, variable Internal variable (Direct costs according to how much a person drives) –E.g. travel time, vehicle operation Internal fixed (Direct costs that are not really changed when driving habits change) –E.g. vehicle ownership, regist./insurance, parking External (Costs imposed on others) –E.g. climate change, air pollution, congestion

101. Per Capita and Total Estimates for Road Passenger Transportation (C$2002)

102. Average Car Costs (per vehicle-km) Ranked by Magnitude

103. Aggregate Distribution of Costs for an Average Car

104. Full-Cost Accounting Results Overall full cost of N.S. road transportation system in 2002: $6.4 billion - $13.3 billion True cost is about $7,598/capita, of which $4,562 are “invisible” costs Fixed and external costs account for over 2/3 of total cost These results indicate an inefficient, unsustainable transportation system where externalities conceal the full costs to society

105. Reducing NS’s Ecological Footprint: eg Transportation Onus on consumers: Drive less, walk & cycle more, use public transport, car-pool. Switch from 1/car -> 4/car, 3 days/week, reduces commuting footprint by 45% Onus on government/planners: Coordinated land use/transportation planning is essential to bring about any substantial shift in transportation patterns

106. “Win-Win” Solutions (Litman) Policy and planning reforms are needed – esp. land use planning The are solutions that can achieve multiple benefits across economic, social, and environmental components Important to avoid “problem-shifting” solutions (e.g. that increase vehicle traffic or sprawl – see generated costs of highway widening)

107. “Win-Win” Solutions

110. Can we do it? Percentage Waste Diversion in Nova Scotia

112. GPI: Measuring what we value to leave a better world for our children

113. Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique www.gpiatlantic.org