1. 4 th International Congress on Kerala Studies 2015 Disruptive Technologies in Global Electricity Industry: Implications for the Future 19 th July 2015, Kochi Dr Binu Parthan

2. Global Change  Energy Utility Revenue/ Business Models remain static over 100 years!  Three disruptive technologies:  Distributed Energy Storage;  Electric Mobility;  Distributed Photovoltaics.  Major changes in Europe and North America – Asia;  India and Kerala – prepare and evolve 2

3. Traditional Value Chain 3

4. Distributed Energy Storage  Traditional – Pumped Storage Hydro (90 GW); Batteries – Pb- Acid, Li-Ion -538 MW; US, Germany, Italy, China, Japan;  Distributed batteries– 21 GW by 2024  360 $/kWh -100$/kWh by 2025;  Cost reductions – material optimisation, scale-up – 35 GWh/Year to 122 GWh/Year – China and US. – cost and performance. 4

5. Large-Scale Li-Ion Battery Plants 5

6. Electric Mobility  PEVs & PHEVs;  High growth rates – 200,000 in 2013;  Norway, Netherlands – 5% of market;  200k – 5 million - 2025  Night-time, Off-peak electricity demand;  20-50 kWh energy storage – 2-5 days of energy demand- V2G technology, sell electricity; 6

7. Electric Vehicle Markets 7

8. Distributed Photovoltaics  Driven by cost reductions – PV modules, inverters, batteries, electronics. – Manufacturing at scale- China & US – material optimisation;  13 GW of DPV globally – Japan, US, Germany, Germany, Spain, UK, Italy etc.;  India significant potential – untapped.  China – large DPV programme – 3-7 GWp in 2015;  2040 – 1710 GW DPV – biggest growth sector globally. 8

9. Innovations  EVs- charging infrastructure, superchargers, battery-swapping; self- driving cars;  PV – Inverters, BOS, Racking & mounting;  Batteries material optimisation – anode materials – energy density, lifetime, energy dissipation, charge-time reductions;  Financing – Zero upfront – leasing or PPAs ; Crowdfunding; SolarCoin – Crypto- currency;  Policy – Net-metering; wheeling and banking, battery storage policies. EVs – tax reductions, incentives, charging points, driving lanes and parking preferences etc. 9

10. Prosumer Evolution  Combination of Solar + Storage (EV or stationary battery);  Day-time PV generation to meet home demand and stored in batteries, batteries meet night- time demand – only early morning demand by utility – Germany for 2014;  Accelerate for other countries – US, Europe, China, Indie etc. with PV, Battery and EV cost reductions 10

11. Economics of Grid+ PV + Storage (April 2015) 11

12. The Future Electricity Industry?  In the next 10-15 years – prosumers will change electricity value chain;  EVs – new revenue for utilities but EV storage disruptive;  Prosumers – sales + storage services;  Large IPPs, vertically integrated utilities struggle, distribution utilities benefit;  Some utilities, mange and own DPV + storage 12

13. Implications for India and Kerala  Existing ecosystem – back-up generators, battery, inverters – easier for prosumer uptake;  EV uptake – Govt. policies – shift to electrical demand – mixed due to storage;  Government & regulators play a role in the pace of diffusion;  Utility will continue to have a role in economically backward households.  The utility model will evolve. Lets prepare ourselves. 13

14. 14 bparthan@gmail.com Thank You For your kind attention