1. Micro SOFC for portable application
On-Bat Project
Micro SOFC for portable application
WP 5
Project Management
TeECon Consulting
Dr. Hans-Walter Praas
Radebeul,
Germany Nov. 17th, 2005

2. Outline Background Field of interest
Evaluation process for ONE – BAT project
Assessment of application entrance strategy
Industrial partner evaluation process
Application and energy source roadmap

3. Positive impact on rechargeable battery business
Background
I: Technology has been developed, but still breakthrough waited
Japanese Toshiba, NEC, Hitachi, Fujitsu and Casio take lead (wow, they are the losers in secondary battery…does it happen by accident?), the first product will be launched soon in 05CY (but they said “07CY would be the target year”…)
Japanese NTT and KDDI expect FC can be “new power device” for 3.5/4G
Sad news is the stopping of Nokia’s FC development
II: What is the killer application?
Cellular phone with TV tuner and HDD REC/PLAY
NBPC which runs hours
Electric motor bike for ecology
It seems that co-generation system for house is more promising in Japan
III: Conclusion: 1st gen FC will not compete with secondary battery
FC is charger as accessory, still equipment needs internal LIB/Laminate
If users accept such a device, which can be the next step for 2nd gen FC
If FC charger performs good, which can be the driving force to expand portable equipment market and secondary battery industry would be also happy
If IIT is consulting someone, we recommend to develop 2 cells charger with built-in AC-charger for power consuming cellular
Positive impact on rechargeable battery business
Source: Takeshita April 2005

4. Field of Interest
Micro SOFC for portable application – a revolution of energy, when, what ….
Is the time right, what are the limits and show stoppers….
SOFC
Rugged Computer
Soldier Power
Professional Video
Consumer Notebooks
Mobile phones / PDA / MDA

5. Evaluation process for ONE – BAT project
During the project periode the main task and validation belongs to an PROVE of CONCEPT.
Targed
varification
Process
varification
Application
varification
Industrial
partner
selection
3m 4 – 8 m 6 – 10m 8 – 12m
The project validation (quarterly based) covers always a technical assessment, followed by timing, the competitions (on battery and FC) and potential application partners.

6. 8 companies represent ~ 80% LiB/LiP marketshare
Assessment of application entrance strategy
LiB/LiP total Market volume = 1.25 Billion units in 2003
Position Company Volume (M Cells)
1 Sanyo
2 Sony
3 BYD (China) 125
4 MBI (Matsushita) 100
5 SDI ( Samsung) 75
6 LG
7 GSMT (Sanyo)
8 ATB (Toshiba) ~20
8 companies represent ~ 80% LiB/LiP marketshare

7. Market Overview: Portable Device Drivers
Assessment of application entrance strategy
Market Overview: Portable Device Drivers
Mobility is rapidly increasing (Laptop, Cellphone, PDA, MP3...)
Product life cycle of mobile devices is shortening
Run time of mobile devices and number of features is increasing
Power source (Battery) capacity must increase
Application power consumption must decrease
Different technical requirements depending on application (speciality
markets)

8. Market Overview: Battery Drivers
Assessment of application entrance strategy
Market Overview: Battery Drivers
Energy density (volume, weight)
Power density (volume, weight)
Device design (form factor)
Environmental conditions (temperature)
Safety (UL)

9. Industry Value Chain Analysis
Assessment of application entrance strategy
Industry Value Chain Analysis
OEM
Battery
Manufacturer
Distributor
Pack
Assembler
ODM
End User
Partner
Representative
Distributor
End
User
Small
OEM
Pack Assembler

10. Battery technology share, 2001, % Battery technology share, 2006, %
Market trends in portable application
Li-technology will dominate high end applications with Li-polymer substantially growing its share…
Growth trend CAGR
Price trend
Battery technology share, 2001, %
Battery technology share, 2006, %
Main applications
NiMH 19
Digital camera
26%
NiMH 48 52
Li-ion 81
Li-ion
Li-ion 4
Li-ion 12
e-bike
20%
NiMH 37 59
NiCd
NiCd 29 59
NiMH
Laptop
PDA
Li-p 5
NiMH 3
NiMH 6
Li-p 9
18% 89
Li-ion 88
Li-ion
NiMH
NiMH
Camcorder 4 2
NiCd 15 2%
Li-ion 45 52
NiCd 83
Li-ion
NiMH 19
NiMH 32
Power tools 81
NiCd 68
NiCd
Source: Avicenne, Arthur D. Little

11. Battery technology share, 2001, % Battery technology share, 2006, %
Market trends in portable application
Li-technology will dominate high end applications with Li-polymer substantially growing its share…
Growth trend CAGR
Price trend
Battery technology share, 2001, %
Battery technology share, 2006, %
Main applications
NiCd 40
NiMH 43 57
NiCd 60
NiMH
RC Models
Cordless phone
NiMH 26
-3%
NiCd 46 54
NiMH 74
NiCd
NiMH 23
NiCd 26
Household
-6% 77
NiCd 74
NiMH
NiMH 9
Security
-7%
100
NiCd 91
NiCd
Li-p 9
NiMH 13
Cellphone 5%
NiMH 28 65
Li-ion
Li-p 22 65
Li-ion
Source: Avicenne, Arthur D. Little

12. Sustaining a profitable business will require playing a new game
Assessment of application entrance strategy
System concept for Batteries
System concept for SOFC
Batteries
Chargers
Safety
Electronics
Pack
Assembly
Integrated
Energy
Solutions
Battery
SOFC
Integrated
Energy
Solutions
Control
electronics
Pack
Assembly
Sustaining a profitable business will require playing a new game

13. Assessment of application entrance strategy
High value, low volume market creates acceptence and confidence
Full access
to key
custom
ers
and
existing
markets

14. Industrial partner evaluation process
Independed of the energy system, large OEM main market requires reliable and very cost optimized energy source products.
medium value
high value
Market entrance strategy depends of achievements during the first phase. Best approach is always in Quadrant I.
Military
Speciality Markets
Health care
Medical
Scanner
Laptop
medium value
PDA
DSC
Handy
Volume Markets
Packer
Spot Market
low value
Standard Product
Customized Product

15. Industrial partner evaluation process
MASS PRODUCTION
Planning &
Design
Pilot
Ramp-up
production
Prepa
ration
Commit to the plan:
Accept plan
Agreement on timing
Agreement on costs
Agreement on CAPEX
Start delivery
to customers
Customer approval
QA & Production
agrees
to deliver
Commit to go
for the project:
Team leader
Target dates
Design and
samples
BSR :
Market info
competitors
Target BOM
Resources
Cost R&D
Cost factory
Detailed plan
Product specs
and architecture
Prototypes
R&D resources
R&D costs
Industrial scenario
Ind. investments
Ind. resources
Target SMP/TR
Design/simulation
First samples
Mechanical samples
W/S samples
E/S samples
Equipment defin.
Equipment install.
Definitive samples
on factory line
Process capability
Industrial infrastr.
Production running in
Check manuf.
performance
Check costs
Customer feedback
Improvements
accepts
design
Design/processes
frozen
Yield on target
Industr. set-up
complete
Production ownership
Project
Launch PL
Transfer
Release TR
Plan
Approval PA
Engineering
Sample
E/S A
Start
Pre Production
SMP
Industrial partner after prove of Concept

16. Industrial partner evaluation process
Application assessment spread sheet (example for Li-Ion)

17. Fuel Cell, Super Capacitor,Solar Cell,etc
Energy source roadmap
Large OEM Li-Ion manufacturer entering various applications
Samll
Size
Battery
Large
’10
’09
’08
’07
’06
’05
’04
’03
’02
24V
Explore
E-bike EV
1st Gen. LB
2nd Gen. LB
High-Voltage : 5V
Fuel Cell, Super Capacitor,Solar Cell,etc
42V/HEV
300V/
System (Load leveling,etc)
For Power tool
LiPB for Note-PC
Non-flammable Cell
Source: LG –chem Roadmap portable batteries

18. Rechargeable Batteries
Energy source roadmap
The future will see increased mobility due to a wider range of utility of portable power sources
This will create the opportunity for new applications of portable power technology
Energy Requirement Wh/day
0.001
0.01
0.1 1 10
100
Primary Batteries
Rechargeable Batteries
Communication
Sensing
Household Appliances
Free Energy
Micro ICE
Fuel Cells
New Applications

19. Contact TeECon Consulting Am Gymnasium 4 01445 Radebeul Germany
+49 – (0) 351 –
+49 – (0) 351 – (Fax)
+49 – (0) 172 – (Mobil)