1. Education and Illinois’ Future Jennifer B. Presley Consultant* jenniferbpresley@gmail.com December 8, 2009 * Jennifer Presley is currently Director of Science & Mathematics Education Policy at the Association for Public and Land-grant Universities in Washington, D.C. She was formerly Director of the Illinois Education Research Council.

2. 2 The Role of Illinois’ P-20 Council To formalize collaboration across early learning, K-12 and postsecondary providers To provide a broad coalition of stakeholders who can collectively identify and address inter-sector issues – especially the intersection of education and the state’s economy; housing; welfare; etc. To shine a spotlight on needs for change and reform

3. Illinois’ Changing Workforce

4. 4 Illinois’ Changing Job Market – Prior to the Great Recession Between 1990 and 2005, Illinois lost 24% of its manufacturing industry jobs (-225,000, usually higher paying jobs). Three service industries: professional and business services, education and health services, and the leisure and hospitality industry, registered the largest proportionate job growth, increasing 37% (+559,300, many are lower paying jobs than manufacturing, but often requiring more education). Education is a major factor in employment. Higher preparation levels command (relatively) higher wages. Source: The State of Working Illinois, Center for Tax and Budget Accountability and NIU, 2005.

5. 5 In 2005, IDES projected an additional 700,000 jobs to be added to the Illinois from 2002 to 2012. – 55% requiring some postsecondary education – 34% requiring at least a bachelor’s degree 7 million total Illinois jobs by 2012. – 30% requiring postsecondary education – 23% requiring at least a bachelor’s degree With Illinois unemployment at 11% in October, 2009, the near-term job projections are subject to revision. Sources: From Table 7, Illinois Department of Employment Security; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (from State of Working Illinois, 2005.) Projections extrapolate from past job and industry patterns. Jobs in Illinois are shifting to those that need postsecondary education. This is also the case across the rest of the country.

6. 6 Asked about recent Illinois college graduates’ overall knowledge and skills, 591 Illinois employers report – 38% very satisfied; 57% satisfied; 3% dissatisfied; 2% don’t know. – They recommended that higher education improve the teaching of practical skills, and place more emphasis on communication skills. Nationally, employers say that – high school graduates are deficient in professionalism/work ethic, oral and written communication, teamwork/collaboration, and critical thinking/problem solving. – At the college level, conclusions similar to the Illinois study – citing deficiencies in writing in English, communications and leadership. Sources: Item 14, IBHE Employer Satisfaction Survey, 2005. Board Meeting, April 4, 2006, pg. 91. Board, 2006. And employers want college-ready skills even from high school graduates.

7. 7 Illinois’ population is aging – a vibrant economy is needed to support growing obligations to the aging population. Source: US. Census population projections, 2005 – www.census.gov/population/projections/DownldFile2.xls. Retrieved 2/23/2007www.census.gov/population/projections/DownldFile2.xls. Retrieved 2/23/2007 YearAge 0-19Age 20-54Age 55-64Age 65+ Distribution in 200029%51%8%12% Distribution in 202027%46%12%15% Distribution in 203027%45%10%18% 2000-2020 Census Change -8,707 -0.2% -215,671 -3% 553,066 53% 488,739 33% 2000-2030 Census Change 1,408 0.0% -272,920 -4% 372,959 36% 912,152 61%

8. 8 Projections of Working-Age Population (Ages 18 ‑ 64)—Percent Change, 2000-20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (from NCHEMS, November 2005) Kentucky New York Pennsylvania Ohio Iowa Michigan West Virginia CaliforniaNew Mexico AlaskaWyomingIdahoWashingtonTexas Florida Utah MarylandGeorgia Arizona Virginia OregonUnited States Alabama New HampshireNew JerseyMontanaTennesseeKansas Oklahoma Colorado Louisiana South Carolina Nevada North CarolinaSouth DakotaConnecticut Maine ArkansasMissouriDelawareMississippi MinnesotaNebraska VermontMassachusetts Illinois North DakotaWisconsin Rhode Island IndianaHawaii Illinois’ working-age population growth likely to be small. High-growth states are in the West and the South. Reliance on educated workforce in-migration will be challenging as surrounding states strive to retain their own well-educated workforce.

9. 9 Projected Change in Population Age 25-64 By Race/Ethnicity—Illinois, 2000-20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2020) and Census 2000 (from NCHEMS, 2005) Most projected growth in Illinois is among Hispanics/Latinos

10. 10 Workforce Conclusions Working age population growth is likely to be small in Illinois – and up mainly for Hispanics/Latinos, followed by Asians. An adequate workforce will depend on: – Continued in-migration – Participation of those not in the workplace (including younger and older people) – Improved education pipeline results Source: From Dennis Jones’ (NCHEMS) presentation to IBHE Summit, Chicago, IL. November 2005. Note that Illinois’ DECO population projections assume that there will be in-migration to meet projected job growth, and so add net in-migration to balance projected job growth.

11. The Illinois Education Pipeline

12. 12 Changing demographics of Illinois High School Graduates Source: WICHE Projections of High School Graduates, 2003 Hispanic Asian Black White Like other states, an increasing proportion of Illinois high school graduates will be minority.

13. 13 Currently, black and Hispanic/Latino students in Illinois (and nationally) are not completing high school at the same rates as their peers. Black49% Hispanic/Latino54% White & Asian85% The changing racial/ethnic composition of Illinois’ high school graduates will be even more pronounced if black and Hispanic/Latino completion rates improve. Source: Uses Manhattan Institute Methodology, based on entering 9 th graders, 2000-2001. Taken from Keeping Illinois Competitive. Illinois Status Report STEM Education. See www.keepingillinoiscompetitive.niu.edu, p. 56

14. 14 And many of those who finish high school in Illinois are not ready for college or the workplace. Still, a majority expect to earn a bachelor’s degree. } } Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The demographics and academics of college readiness in Illinois. 1/3

15. 15 College Ready: Not/Least College Ready: Black11%Black 54% Latino17%Latino 49% White 48%White22% Asian55%Asian17% There are low readiness rates in all racial/ethnic groups, but especially among black and Latino students Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The demographics and academics of college readiness in Illinois. 2005

16. 16 And college readiness is an issue across the regions of the state. Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The demographics and academics of college readiness in Illinois. 2005

17. 17 Source: Y. Gong and J. Presley. The demographics and academics of college going in Illinois, 2006 Especially at lower readiness levels, Latino (and Native American, not shown) students are less likely to go straight to college, while Asian students are most likely to continue. (Black student participation is quite similar to that of white students at each readiness level.) Readiness IndexLatinoBlackWhiteAsianTotal Not/Least Ready 35%45%49%60%43% Minimally Ready 47%57%61%66%58% Somewhat Ready 58%67%72%79%69% More Ready 76%83%79%84%79% Most Ready 85%83%84%86%84% Total 49%55%70%78%64% Percent Illinois’ 2002 high school graduates going straight to college

18. 18 College readiness is very important to college persistence – But… Source: IERC, unpublished data, June 2007. Most college- ready students (85%) remain enrolled into Year 4. But enrolling full time trumps readiness.

19. Student Performance and Teacher Quality

20. 20 Illinois vs. Nation on 4 th Grade NAEP Mathematics - 2009 In 2009, the average score in Illinois was lower than those in 24 states/jurisdictions higher than those in10 states/jurisdictions not significantly different from those in 17 states/jurisdictions Source: http://www.isbe.net/assessment/pdfs/NAEP_snapshot4.pdf

21. 21 Illinois vs. Nation on 8 th Grade NAEP Mathematics – 2009 In 2009, the average score in Illinois was lower than those in 23 states/jurisdictions higher than those in 15 states/jurisdictions not significantly different from those in 13 states/jurisdictions Source: http://www.isbe.net/assessment/pdfs/NAEP_snapshot8.pdf

22. 22 Looking at Teacher Quality: Components of the Illinois School Teacher Quality Index School Level Teacher Characteristics – % of Teachers with Emergency/Provisional Certification – % of Teachers from More/Most Selective Colleges – % of Teachers Failing Basic Skills Test on First Attempt – School Average of Teachers’ ACT Composite and English Scores – % of Teachers with < 4 Years Experience School Teacher Quality Index (TQI) Sources of Data: State 2002-2003 Teacher Service Records and Teacher Certification Information System, ACT Inc, Barron’s Guide, Common Core of Data (NCES) Strong Academic Capital component trumps experience. Teacher Academic Capital

23. 23 Very high percent minority schools are likely to have very low school TQIs. There is little difference in TQI distribution below the highest minority quartile (i.e. below about 60% minority). TQI Distribution by Illinois School Percent Minority

24. 24 TQI distribution is strongly related to school poverty levels. But - the differences continue across all four poverty quartiles. TQI Distribution by Illinois School Percent Poverty

25. 25 Elementary/Middle School Quartiles High School Quartiles Schools with low TQIs have low school performance

26. 26 College Readiness for Low-Poverty, Low-Minority High Schools and High-Poverty, High Minority High Schools by School TQI College Readiness increases as TQI increases, no matter the student body characteristics TQI matters more for high schools serving mostly disadvantaged students. +9 +23 26 ? IMAGINEIMAGINE Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois. http://ierc.siue.edu/documents/College%20Readiness%20-%202005-3.pdf

27. 27 Highest Math Course, School TQI and College Readiness School TQI Quartile Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois. http://ierc.siue.edu/documents/College%20Readiness%20-%202005-3.pdf 27 Advanced math courses matter to college readiness, but so does where the courses are taken.

28. 28 Key Points to Remember – Jobs increasingly need skills related to postsecondary education. – Illinois’ population is aging, with an increasing proportion of younger people coming from minority racial/ethnic groups – all Illinois’ youth are an important resource for the future. – But – Illinois schools’ performance on NAEP lags about half the states in the nation. – And non-Asian minorities and students from low-income families Are less likely to have teachers with strong academic capital Are less likely to graduate from high school. Less likely graduate ready for college and the workplace. And for Latinos, less likely to enroll in college. – We need to get the readiness job done throughout the PK-12 years.

29. 29 Final Remarks The Illinois economy will need a more strongly educated working population – it will take every brain reaching its full potential. Illinois must ensure that all students have the opportunity and encouragement to maximize their educational potential. Higher education, K-12 and Pre-K need to work together on getting the signals to students, teachers and parents right. – Align performance expectations across education sectors – Start early, and continue with stronger preparation and higher expectations throughout elementary school -- more equitable distribution of teacher academic capital – Work towards eliminating need for remedial education in the postsecondary sector – Keep college students enrolled to program completion = enroll full time – Promote teaching as a career path for academically talented college students – Ensure strong science and mathematics as well as literacy competence in all new teachers It’s readiness, readiness, readiness