1. 10th CMAS Conference Special Session on AQ Modeling Applications In Memory of Dr. Daewon Byun

2. View of NCAR Mesa Lab, Boulder, Colorado

3. 1986 NCAR Summer Supercomputing Institute

5. IMA Workshop on Atmospheric Modeling March 15-19, 2000 Organizers David P. Chock Gregory R. Carmichael Ford Motor Company University of Iowa This workshop will focus on the mathematical problems which arise in the management of air quality. Presently mathematical modeling is an integral part of air quality research and management programs. Present air quality models involve complex and coupled phenomena including coupled transport, chemistry, radiative, and mass transfer process. These three-dimensional models pose great mathematical challenges, because they involve complex physical domains, highly stiff sets of equations, and large number of grids. In this workshop the focus will be on various aspects of air quality modeling, related to improving the computational quality and extended uses of air quality modeling, which can only be accomplished if significant advances are made in the models. Topics to be discussed include new techniques for solutions of stiff ODEs, new methods for solving the governing PDEs including multigrid and irregular grids; sensitivity analysis tools including automatic differentiation, and optimization and inverse modeling applications. Parallel computing, compiler tools, and visualization will also be discussed. The workshop will bring together experts in modeling, analysis, and numerical analysis.

6. Two Years of Operational AQ Forecasting with GEM-MACH15: A Look Back and a Look Ahead M.D. Moran 1, J. Chen 2, S. Ménard 2, R. Pavlovic 2, H. Landry 2, P.-A. Beaulieu 2, S. Gilbert 2, P.A. Makar 1, W. Gong 1, C. Stroud 1, A. Kallaur 3, A. Robichaud 3, S. Gong 1, and D. Anselmo 2 1 Air Quality Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada 2 Air Quality Modelling Applications Section, Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada 3 Air Quality Research Division, Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada 10 th CMAS Conference, 24-26 October 2011, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

7. AQHI + Canadian AQ Forecasting System Short GEM-MACH15 Overview Selected 2-Year Evaluation Results – more results in extended abstract Next Steps and Future Plans Talk Outline

8. Follows example of Canadian national UV index Year-round, health-based, additive, no-threshold, hourly AQ index Developed from daily time-series analysis of air pollutant concentrations and mortality data (Stieb et al., 2008) Weighted sum of NO 2, O 3, & PM 2.5 concentrations 0 to 10+ range AQHI: Canada’s National Air Quality Health Index

10. Primary messaging tool is the AQHI Main target is urban areas > 100,000 population GEM-MACH15 coupled AQ / Wx forecast model provides guidance on AQHI component values (NO 2, O 3, PM 2.5 ) and met fields UMOS-AQ/MIST statistical post-processing package combines GEM-MACH15 predicted AQ and met fields with previous day’s measured AQHI component values to forecast hourly AQHI component values (  large reduction in bias) Canadian AQ Forecasting System

11. Acronym “GEM-MACH” Stands For modèle Global Environnemental Multi-échelle – Modélisation de la qualité de l'Air et de la CHimie et / and Global Environmental Multiscale model – Modelling Air quality and CHemistry

12. GEM-MACH is a multi-scale chemical weather forecast model composed of dynamics, physics, and in-line chemistry modules GEM-MACH15 is a particular configuration of GEM-MACH chosen to meet EC’s operational AQ forecast needs; its key characteristics include: –limited-area-model (LAM) grid configuration for North America –15-km horizontal grid spacing, 58 vertical levels to 0.1 hPa –2-bin sectional representation of PM size distribution (i.e., 0-2.5 and 2.5-10 μm) with 9 chemical components –forecast species include O 3, NO 2, and PM 2.5 needed for AQHI GEM-MACH and GEM-MACH15

13. GEM-LAM15 is EC’s limited-area regional weather forecast model GEM-MACH15’s grid points are co-located with GEM-LAM15 grid points GEM-LAM15 supplies meteorological initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions to GEM-MACH15 GEM-LAM15 and GEM-MACH15 Grids GEM-LAM15 core grid (blue); GEM-MACH15 grid (red)

14. Operational GEM-MACH15 Chronology June 2009: GEM-MACH15 parallel run begins Nov. 2009: CHRONOS replaced by GEM-MACH15 Mar. 2010: New emissions files introduced with modified primary PM 2.5 spatial distribution over some Cdn provinces Oct. 2010: Piloting model changed from GEM15 to GEM-LAM15 Tomorrow: New operational version of GEM-MACH15 with new emissions

15. Considered 2-year period from 1 Aug. 2009 to 31 July 2011 Looked at Year 1 (2009-10) vs. Year 2 (2010-11) Used archived near-real-time hourly O 3, PM 2.5, and NO 2 Canadian data from National Air Pollutant Surveillance (NAPS) network stations and hourly O 3 and PM 2.5 U.S. data from AIRNow Performed some limited screening for outliers 2-Year Performance Evaluation Results

16. Minimum number of available Canadian and U.S. stations in 2009-2011 for O 3, PM 2.5, and NO 2 in the Oct.–Mar. and Apr.–Sept. periods Country/SpeciesO3O3 PM 2.5 NO 2 Canada summer 184170134 Canada winter 182171133 U.S. summer1,128597N/A U.S. winter 626599N/A

17. Year 1 Annual Correlation (R) Values O3O3 PM 2.5 NO 2

18. Year 1 & Year 2 Annual Time Series Of National-Average Daily Maximum 1-h O 3 Concentrations At Canadian & U.S. Stations Cda Year 1 U.S. Year 2 U.S. Year 1 Cda Year 2

19. Year 1 & Year 2 Annual Time Series Of National-Average Daily Max’m 1-h PM 2.5 Concentrations At Canadian & U.S. Stations

20. Year 1 & Year 2 Annual Time Series Of National-Average Daily Maximum 1-h NO 2 Concentrations At Canadian Stations Cda Year 1 Cda Year 2

21. Regions for Model Evaluation EUSA ECANWCAN WUSA

22. Monthly Variation Of Regional Mean NMB For Daily Maximum PM 2.5 For 4 Regions For Full 2 Years

23. Other statistics can be found in extended abstract

24. Introduction of new operational version of GEM- MACH15 this month – Host model has been upgraded from v3.3.0 to v3.3.3 – Improved emissions based on U.S. 2012 projected emissions inventory (decreased mobile and point source emissions, increased marine emissions) Upgrade of back-end computer from IBM air-cooled p5 to water-cooled p7 architecture this winter Next Steps

25. Average Summer NO Emissions (Ktonnes) and O 3 Concentration (ppbv) Differences emisNO Difference (V1-V2) [O3] Difference (V1-V2) V1: Operational G-M15 version (v330) V2: New G-M15 version (v333)

26. Migration to GEMv4 (new staggered vertical discretization, updated chemistry bus, piloting at top of limited-area grid) Further improvements to emissions files Improved process representations Improved initialization using objectively-analyzed model-measurement fields Longer forecasts (48  72+ h) Reduced grid spacing (15  ? km) Future Plans

27. GEM-MACH15 has been running operationally in Canada for more than two years Year-to-year performance is quite similar except for improved PM 2.5 performance in Canada due to use of improved primary PM 2.5 emissions in Year 2 New operational version being introduced this month uses 2012 projected U.S. inventory Further improvements are expected next year related to improvements in model emissions, initialization, and process representations Conclusions

28. Thank you for your attention