1. 1 National Assessment the Engineering Vulnerability of Public Infrastructure to Climate Change: Progress to Date and Next Steps David Lapp, P.Eng. Engineers Canada Americana International Trade Show 2009 Montreal, QC March 19, 2009

2. 2 What is Engineers Canada? 12 constituent members - the provincial and territorial regulatory associations/ordre Over 160,000 registered professional engineers in Canada Promotes high standards of engineering education, professional qualifications and ethical conduct Accredits all undergraduate engineering programs in Canada

3. 3 Infrastructure and Climate Change Because of changing climates, past climate may no longer be a good indicator of future climate Existing infrastructure is designed based on historical design values, typically with conservative safety factors Climatic design values based on historical data will be less and less helpful over time However, knowledge of the past is essential to understand risks of future climate changes Shifts in extremes will increase damage and destruction of infrastructure

4. 4 Design life-appropriate assessment StructuresExpected Lifecycle Houses/ Buildings Retrofit/alterations 15-20 yrs Demolition 50-100 yrs Storm/Sanitary Sewer Base system 100 yrs Major upgrade 50 yrs Components 25 – 50 yrs Dams/ Water Supply Base system 50-100 yrs Refurbishment 20-30 yrs Reconstruction 50 yrs Roads & Bridges Road surface 10 - 20 yrs Bridges 50 - 100 yrs Maintenance annually Resurface concrete 20-25 yrs Reconstruction 50-100 yrs Design life varies Component-based vulnerability assessment Safety / economics / technical There is adaptive capacity because of maintenance & rehabilitation Conversely, poor maintenance and lack of rehabilitation contributes to vulnerability

5. 5 Need for a Climate Change Infrastructure Vulnerability Study  Infrastructure needs to be designed, operated and maintained in a way that minimizes the risk of destruction, disruption or deterioration due to changing climatic conditions  The engineering profession needs to understand climate change and account for it in design and retrofitting of Canadian public infrastructure  Need to develop or revise policies, standards and tools to guide Professional Engineers in their day-to-day practice

6. 6 Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC)  Oversee a national engineering assessment of the vulnerability of public infrastructure to climate change in Canada  Facilitate the development of best engineering practices that adapt to climate change impacts  Utilize results to recommend reviews of infrastructure codes and standards  Partnership between Engineers Canada and Natural Resources Canada

7. 7 PIEVC Membership  NRCan  Transport Canada  Environment Canada  Infrastructure Canada  Public Works and Government Services Canada  National Research Council  Alberta Infrastructure and Transportation  NWT Asset Management Division  Government of Newfoundland and Labrador  Institute of Catastrophic Loss Reduction  Canadian Standards Association  Federation of Canadian Municipalities  Municipality of Portage la Prairie  City of Montreal  City of Delta, BC  City of Calgary  Ontario Public Infrastructure Renewal  Ouranos

8. 8 What is Public Infrastructure? “Those facilities, networks and assets operated for the collective public benefit including the health, safety, cultural or economic well-being of Canadians, whether operated by government and/or non-government agencies”

9. 9 Engineering Vulnerability “The shortfall in the ability of public infrastructure to absorb the negative effects, and benefit from the positive effects, of changes in the climate conditions used to design and operate infrastructure.” Vulnerability is a function of:  Character, magnitude and rate of change in the climatic conditions to which infrastructure is predicted to be exposed;  Sensitivities of infrastructure to the changes, in terms of positive or negative consequences of changes in applicable climatic conditions; and  Built-in capacity of infrastructure to absorb any net negative consequences from the predicted changes in climatic conditions. Vulnerability assessment will, therefore, require assessment of all three elements above.

10. 10 PIEVC Engineering Protocol  Five step evaluation process  Derived from standard risk management methodologies  Tailored to climate change vulnerability  Data quality and availability assessed throughout  Applied to vulnerability assessment of seven infrastructure case studies across Canada

11. 11 PIEVC Protocol Principles  The PIEVC Protocol is a step by step process to assess impacts of climate change on infrastructure  Goal:  Assist infrastructure owners and operators to effectively incorporate climate change adaptation into design, development and decision- making

12. 12 First National Engineering Vulnerability Assessment of Public Infrastructure Engineers Canada –develops standards of practice –promotes continual development of competence –promotes engineering in Canada PIEVC study 2007-08 –national-scale assessment of Canada’s public infrastructure to climate change impacts –adaptive capacity –potential vulnerabilities –involved multiple levels of government and consultants

13. 13 7 Case Studies Thermosyphon Foundations Quesnell Bridge Edmonton Vancouver Sewerage Area Portage la Prairie Water Treatment Plant Placentia Water Resources Ottawa Buildings Sudbury Roads & Accessories Water resources systems Storm & waste water systems Roads & bridges Buildings

14. 14 Portage la Prairie - Drinking Water Treatment Facility

15. 15 Portage la Prairie - Drinking Water Treatment Facility Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Floods, ice jams, ice build upControl dam structure Floods, ice jams, ice build up, intense rainIntake well & pump DroughtWater source Ice storms, hail, intense rain, tornadoesPower supply, communications, operations staff Recommendations Improve emergency preparedness for extreme events Improve flood protection Planned infrastructure improvements to account for climate change

16. 16 Placentia NL – Water Resources Infrastructure Town Hall in the Flood Plain Main highway through Dunville Breakwater Backside Wall N Tropical Storm Chantal, 2007

17. 17 Placentia NL – Water Resources Infrastructure Tropical Storm Chantal brought more than 200 mm of rain to the Placentia/Dunville area

18. 18 Placentia NL – Water Resources Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Storm waterCulverts (100 yr design) Increase in intense rains > increase in run offHighway and culverts system Sea level rise & storm surgeBreakwater; Backside wall Sea level rise & increase in storm intensity > Increase in ground water table Buildings in flood plain Key Climate Factors Regional model downscalingLocal analysis Sea level riseRainfall intensity increase Wind speed – extremes, gustsRise in local groundwater table Wind assisted storm surgeNew IDF curve for Placentia Recommendations Establish land use plan to minimize storm water run off Improve monitoring of flood protection structures Account for rise in flood plain ground water in new design Improve monitoring of erosion

19. 19 Sudbury – Roads & Associated Structures 330 Lakes within city boundaries main industry is mining (nickel/copper ore)

20. 20 Sudbury – Roads & Associated Structures Recommendations Review / revise design standards for drainage infrastructure Review / revise maintenance procedures for roads / sidewalks Improve materials / modify mix designs (asphalt, high temperature conditions) Perform sensitivity analyses Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Increased frequency of high intensity rain Washouts & damage of gravel road surfaces Surcharging / flooding of drainage systems Rising temperatures (extreme / sustained summer) Softening of asphalt road surfaces Ice accretionFunctionality, operations, safety Increased intensity / volume of rain > ground water table rise Embankment failure; slope stabiilty

21. 21 Edmonton – Quesnell Bridge Design high water level : 1915 flood

22. 22 Edmonton – Quesnell Bridge Recommendations Design drainage system for increased peak rain Review monitoring / maintenance / operations procedures Material selection/design (e.g. based on new temperatures ranges) Perform sensitivity analyses Review / update climatic data in bridge design code Assess other bridges that would be sensitive to scour; slope instability; wind; softening foundations / settlement Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Flood + peak rainDrainage system overload - serviceability Freeze-thaw, ice accretionWeather surface – increased deterioration Drainage system performance Snow volume / patternSnow clearing increase/decrease

23. 23 Metro Vancouver – Vancouver Sewerage Area Burrard Inlet Strait of Georgia Fraser River North Shore Mountains

24. 24 Metro Vancouver – Vancouver Sewerage Area Iona Island waste water treatment plant predominantly combined (storm/sanitary) sewers collection system mechanical system discharge system 25 – 100 yr design life

25. 25 Metro Vancouver – Vancouver Sewerage Area Recommendations Identify stand by power requirements Emergency response plan Determine if additional effort at sewer separation might be required Further assess flooding potential at wastewater treatment plant Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Intense rainCombined sewer overflows Annual rain volumeCombined sewer overflows Storm surge + sea level change + subsidence Flooding of treatment plant Storm surge + wind/wave actionEffluent discharge; jetty structure

26. 26 Ottawa - Buildings

27. 27 Ottawa - Buildings Recommendations Historical or culturally valuable buildings may need a longer time horizon Identify stand by power requirements Further assessment of buildings located on permafrost Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Rainfall / humidityBuilding envelope Freeze-thaw cyclesDeterioration of building materials, especially roof membrane, concrete and masonry Temperature / humidity extremesHVAC systems ability to maintain an acceptable indoor environment Snow load / wind / combo changesStructural (e.g. roof)

28. 28 Water resources systems – Vulnerabilities (general) Drought –affect supply side (peakier rains, but drier dry seasons) Intense winds / tornadoes –low probability of occurrence, but severe consequences –affect access to facility Flooding –dams / seawall in vicinity Ice storms –affect power supplies, essential to operation Rising sea level + storm surge + intense rain –affect coastal, tidal regions

29. 29 Storm water & waste water systems – Vulnerabilities (general) Sudden, intense rainfall –affect drainage system –localized flooding Rainfall volume increase –added loading on collection, treatment, discharge systems Drier periods –drier soil may increase chance of pipe failures Ice regime, ice jams –affect drainage systems Higher temperatures –weakening of permafrost – instability of lagoons

30. 30 Roads & Bridges – Vulnerabilities (general) Temperature changes –can increase freeze-thaw patterns Higher winter temperatures –change/increase freeze-thaw cycles –ice roads no longer serviceable –less snow clearing –frost heave, thaw weakening Higher summer temperatures –softening / rutting of asphalt road surfaces

31. 31 Roads & Bridges – Vulnerabilities (general) Increased rain / intense –flooding (incl. adjacent water bodies) –increase in soil moisture – soil weakening –slope instability –landslides –wash out of gravel roads Hydrological changes –early ice break + intense rain –undermining of bridge foundations (scour, slope failure) –high water level / flood level for bridge design Sea level rise –increase in scour at bridge piers –bridge elevation

32. 32 Buildings – Vulnerabilities (general) Snow load changes –increased volume of snow –wetter, heavier snow – roof loads –changing patterns – change load distribution Temperature change –receding permafrost – weaken foundations –drier soil conditions – weaken foundations Wind severity increase –physical damage –accelerated physical weathering (driving rain, particles) Increase in freeze-thaw cycles Moisture / humidity –building envelopes –cooling systems

33. 33 Summary of Vulnerability Infrastructure CategorySensitivity to Climate Change Water treatment facilitiesSensitive - water supply issues; operations Wastewater treatment facilities Sensitive - changes in influent; operations Roads & BridgesGenerally robust Site specific: Slope stability, foundation weakness BuildingsGenerally adaptive Site specific: foundation weakness Coastal areasSensitive to sea level rise Permafrost regionsVery sensitive to temp change

34. 34 PIEVC Update Progress report on National Engineering Assessment issued in June, 2008 (www.pievc.ca)www.pievc.ca Seven case study reports also available Agreement with Natural Resources Canada for funding to March 31, 2011 – Phase III Presentations on the Engineering Protocol have been given at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Discussions are underway for a pilot project through the World Bank Any interested parties may use the Protocol at no charge, but Engineers Canada retains the intellectual property rights of the Protocol

35. 35 PIEVC Phase III Scope of Work Increase number of case studies (regionally and functionally) Development of a national knowledge base Application of the Protocol in developing countries Add a financial module to the Protocol to assist with “ballpark” costing Focused information dissemination – training and outreach to owners/operators, practitioners, students, educators Workshop development and delivery

36. 36 PIEVC Case Study Process Owner signs license agreement with Engineers Canada to use Protocol Any financial or administrative details handled through a Memorandum of Agreement Operation of a project advisory committee through the PIEVC Secretariat Case studies take about 6 -8 months to complete Cost is in the order of 60-80K depending on scope of infrastructure being assessed

37. 37 Long Term Benefits of Engineering Vulnerability Assessment Identify nature and severity of risks to infrastructure components Optimize more detailed engineering analysis Quick identification of most obvious vulnerabilities Structured, documented approach ensures consistency and accountability Adjustments to design, operations and maintenance aspects of infrastructure Can be applied to new designs, retrofitting, rehabilitation and operations and maintenance reviews Will ultimately lead to reviews and, as necessary, adjustments of codes, standards and engineering practices Provides a useful tool in the hands of a professional team

38. 38 The Way Forward  Adaptation of infrastructure is not necessarily a complex problem but the magnitude is huge  Incorporate adaptation in plans to address the infrastructure deficit  Tie adaptation planning to infrastructure life cycles  Develop the tools and knowledgeable people to use them  Bring impacts of changing climate into the front line thinking of engineering projects

39. 39 Web site: www.pievc.ca Tel.: 613-232-2474; Fax 613-230-5759 E-mail: david.lapp@engineerscanada.ca