1. Data Driven Farming: Week 4: Modeling Dr. Brand Niemann Director and Senior Data Scientist/Data Journalist Semantic Community Data Science Big Data Science for Precision Farming Business Week 4 Modeling August 6, 2015 1

2. Outline InfoAg Conference 2015 InfoAg 2015 Program InfoAg 2015 Program Data Set InfoAg 2015 Session: Science of Precision Ag ISPA and Precision Agriculture around the World ASA - Precision Ag Community International Plant Nutrition Institute NuGIS: Nutrient Use Geographic Information System AgriStats Visualization and Modeling in Spotfire Regional Watershed Nutrient Balance Data HUC 8 Watershed Nutrient Balance Data County and State and 48 State Total Nutrient Balance Data Highlights of Slides from InfoAg 2015 Award Recipients Screen Captures 2

3. http://infoag.org/ 3

4. http://infoag.org/program/5/ 4 My Note: See Highlights of Slides at End and See Program Data Set in Next Slide

5. FarmData.xlsx 5

6. http://infoag.org/session/5/363/ 6

7. ISPA and Precision Agriculture Around the World Dr. Nicolas Tremblay is President-Elect of the International Society for Precision Agriculture (ISPA). He leads an important research program for Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and is known for his ability to generate new knowledge for the benefit of the agricultural sector. He is currently involved in the management of nitrogen fertilizer applications using remote sensing, geomatics, geostatistics and meta-analyses. He has also conducted research on fluorescence techniques for the detection of stresses affecting crops. Dr. Tremblay is the author of more than a hundred scientific peer- reviewed publications. Dr. Tremblay is adjunct-professor at Laval University in Quebec City, University of Ottawa and the Université de Montréal. As a “management strategy that uses information technology to bring data from multiple sources to bear on decisions associated with crop production”, precision agriculture has a tremendous potential to change the face of agriculture for the best all around the world. The International Society for Precision Agriculture is well positioned to federate the scientific expertise available on the planet and generate consensus on critical issues leading to powerful decision rules based on the wealth of information generated by the technologies at our disposal. 7

8. ASA - Precision Ag Community Brenda V. Ortiz with a Ph.D. is in Agricultural Engineering from The University of Georgia is currently an Assistant Professor in the Department of Agronomy and Soils Department at Auburn University (USA). Dr. Ortiz is responsible for research and extension in Grain Crops, Precision Agriculture and Agroclimatology. She has particular expertise in crop growth modeling, spatial statistics and remote sensing. During the last years she has been focusing on studying the impact of weather and climate on row and forage crops, use of crop growth modeling to evaluate different management strategies for improving row crops production, evaluation of different management practices to reduce aflatoxin contamination in corn, and the use of remote sensing technologies for variable rate application of nitrogen. She is currently leading the Climate Extension program of the Alabama Cooperative Extension System. An update on the science of precision ag and the latest efforts of the U.S. research community. 8

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10. 10 http://www.ipni.net/

11. 11 http://www.ipni.net/nugis

12. NuGIS-U.S. NuGIS-U.S. integrates multiple tabular and spatial datasets to create county-level and watershed-level estimates of N, P and K applied to the soil in fertilizer and livestock manure, and nutrients removed by harvested agricultural crops. Geospatial techniques were used to estimate balances for 8-digit hydrologic units using the county-level data. The current version makes estimates for five years, coinciding with the USDA Census of Agriculture, from 1987 - 2007. A version that can be updated annually for non-Census years is under development. Results are viewable through an interactive color map or exportable as tabular data. A pdf file of a short article providing a summary of the methods used in NuGIS is attached (see 'Additional Resources'). In-depth methods are provided on the website to offer complete transparency into how the balance estimates are made and displayed. Interpretation of the results, other than a few summary bullets, is not done here. Future focused publications will emphasize interpretation. Please submit comments or suggestions for improvement to nugis@ipni.net 12 http://www.ipni.net/nugis

13. Figure 1. Nutrient removal in crop harvest and nutrient removal to use ratios for the U.S. over a 20-year period (NuGIS, January 2012). 13 PDF Care needs to be used in interpreting national figures on nutrient balance due to the great variability existing among regions within the U.S. Table 1 illustrates the diversity in nutrient budgets and the resulting balances among states.

14. 14 Link

15. 15 http://nugis.ipni.net/About%20Nugis/

16. 16 http://nugis.ipni.net/map/

17. 17 http://nugis.ipni.net/TabularData/

18. 18 Research Notes My Note: NuGIS Knowledge Base

19. Applications of NuGIS and Conclusions 1 Nutrient balances are important to farmers and to society as indicators of sustainability. Current status offers insights into both production and environmental consequences of existing practices and temporal trends in balances provide a vision of the future unless change occurs. Due to the interactive nature of nutrients in crops, soils, and ecosystems in general, evaluation of balances of multiple crop nutrients has advantages over a singular nutrient focus. We see the final NuGIS as having several applications. These include: Offering guidance in nutrient management education. A basis for science-based guidance in marketing of fertilizers and nutrient management related services. A useful tool for integrating nutrient balances in water quality and nitrous oxide emission modeling. Factual spatial and temporal input into environmental policy development involving plant nutrients. 19 http://nugis.ipni.net/Applications/

20. Applications of NuGIS and Conclusions 2 As discussed earlier, weaknesses exist in our current capacity to accurately evaluate nutrient balances at appropriate resolution. These include incomplete information concerning crop nutrient removal coefficients, lack of Agricultural Census data for specific nutrient use expenditures, and missing county level fertilizer sales data in the AAPFCO database. We hope the transparency of NuGIS will motivate changes in nutrient data collection mechanisms that will lead to improved estimates of nutrient balances and cycling. 20 http://nugis.ipni.net/Applications/

21. Applications of NuGIS and Conclusions 3 This spatial and temporal analysis of partial nutrient balances in the U.S. leads to the following general observations. Crop nutrient removal in the U.S. is increasing faster than nutrient use. Great variation exists across the country in major nutrient (N, P, K) balances. The most positive P balances are found in New England and the South Atlantic Gulf. The most negative P balances are found in the Corn Belt. Most of the Corn Belt has negative P balances and some of these same watersheds appear also to have negative K balances. Removal to use ratios appear unsustainably high in some regions and unsustainably low in others, making intensive monitoring of soil fertility a critically important management practice. Where trends for high partial balances of N and/or P are observed, and/or low removal to use ratios are noted, it may also be important to monitor quality of surface water and groundwater to identify opportunities for special management considerations to help remedy any unacceptable risks of potential water quality impairment. 21 http://nugis.ipni.net/Applications/

22. Visualization and Modeling in Spotfire: Data Regional Watershed Nutrient Balance Data: Correlation Between Total N Farm Fertilizer and Total Harvest Acres, But Not Total Nitrogen Removed and Total Harvest Acres. Total N Farm Fertilizer Has Increased Significantly from 1987-2012 and Region 10 Is the Largest By Far. HUC 8 Watershed Nutrient Balance Data: Same Results as Above and HUC: Tulare Buena Vista Lakes is the Largest by Far County and State and 48 State Total Nutrient Balance Data Same Results as Above and Texas is the Largest State by Far and San Joaquin County California is the Largest by Far Example of Hypoxia: The Upper Midwest is Thought To be a Significant Source of Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (Low Dissolved Oxygen Due to Excess Nitrogen in the Water Which Limits Visibility and Submerged Plant Growth) Bottom Line: We Are Seeing Agriculture Production Increase Due to N Use, But Not Removal Increases, Which Then Are a Source of Water Pollution. We are Looking at the TMDLs for These Areas. http://water.epa.gov/lawsregs/lawsguidance/cwa/tmdl/overviewoftmdl.cfm 22

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26. 26 http://youtu.be/LFkqhl0I8OA?list=PLh0k4GzppsqF70qU3SAblo-Wcep9fQCBHo

27. 27 http://www.ipni.net/article/IPNI-3157

28. AgriStats A unique web-based information system that is available to all IPNI Members and their Staff. The system is designed to collect yield and associated fertilizer use data from regions in which we conduct our Programs. How to Register: If you are new to AgriStats we encourage you to register. Once registered, you will have full access to its available features. Please note that your name and affiliation will be required for security reasons. After your request is processed, you will be provided with personal login details. Also note that requests for access are processed during the business hours of (≈14:00 to 23:00 GMT). Please consult the AgriStats Manual (see left links on this page). A glossary section is available within AgriStats for help on the available functions, the current dataset, and the terms and definitions used to describe the data. Guidelines for Use of AgriStats Data: Access to AgriStats, its data tables, and reports represents a license to use these materials as a resource and does not grant permission for indiscriminate copying or unauthorized use. Although IPNI asks to be cited as a source when AgriStats data are used, the Institute cannot endorse external analyses resulting from its use or guarantee future nutrient use based on AgriStat predictions. 28

29. 29 http://agristats.ipni.net/ My Note: Applied for Access

30. 30 http://link.springer.com/journal/volumesAndIssues/11119?tabName=volumes My Note: Join ISPA for $50 and See Precision Agriculture: An International Journal on Advances in Precision Agriculture

31. Highlights of Slides from InfoAg 2015 Award Recipients: 2015 Crop Adviser/Entrepreneur Award David Scheiderer, Integrated Ag Services 2015 Farmer Award Rod Weimer, Fagerberg Farm 2015 Legacy Award Randy Taylor, Oklahoma State University 2015 Educator/Researcher Award Raj Khosla, Colorado State University Best Sound Byte: The Power of an Idea is best measured by the resistance given that idea! 31

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