1. Rolando Andres Rodriguez Energy Systems Engineering Department of Engineering Aarhus University Transmission Needs in a Fully Renewable Pan-European Electricity System IRENEC, June 2012

2. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Renewable Energy Research Group Aarhus University 2012.06.28 2 Main Research Topics -Large-scale renewable energy systems -Physics of complex networks -Wind farm turbulence modeling Group Leader Martin Greiner Professor, System Engineering greiner@imf.au.dk Fundamental Research Approach -Independent of policies or technological advances -Strongly dependent on reliable and thorough weather data -Based on simple mathematical models

3. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Model Data 2012.06.28 3 Possible Power Production Solar Energy Wind Energy Weather Data 50 km x 50 km 1 hour resolution 8 year period Load Data 1 hour resolution 8 year period Allows modelling of hourly consumption/producti on for 27 European countries

4. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Weather Variations 2012.06.28 4

5. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Mismatch Calculation 2012.06.28 5 Power generation is normalized according to energy output and not installed capacity. Hourly mismatch of generation and consumption: W(t):Normalized hourly wind power generation. S(t):Normalized hourly solar power generation. L(t):Normalized hourly electricity demand (load). Hourly mismatch of generation and consumption: W(t):Normalized hourly wind power generation. S(t):Normalized hourly solar power generation. L(t):Normalized hourly electricity demand (load).

6. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Residual Load Instantaneous mismatch: Residual load needs to be covered by power balancing from conventional sources! 2012.06.28 6

7. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Optimal Mix of Wind and Solar 2012.06.28 7 Wind power Solar PV power Load Wind + Solar PV Load Optimising for Storage Energy ≈ 60% wind power + 40% solar power Balancing Energy≈ 70% wind power + 30% solar power Balancing Power ≈ >70% wind power+ <30% solar power

8. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk 2012.06.28 8 A Fully Renewable Europe Analysed Scenario 27 European Countries Annual Renewable Production = Annual Consumption Existing links as of winter 2011-2012 Optimal mix installed in all countries ≈ 70% Wind, 30% Solar What are the benefits of transmission for a fully renewable Europe? What is a sufficiently large transmission system?

9. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Unconstrained Power Transmission 2012.06.28 9 Quantifying the benefit of transmission is done through the total need for balancing B n =(Δ n -(KF) n ) - Which is a result of Net Exports Mismatch

10. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Unconstrained Power Transmission 2012.06.28 10 We identify sufficiently large quantiles on transmission limitations.

11. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Constrained Power Transmission Copper Plate transmission roughly 10x actual installed capacity. 99% Quantiles roughly 5x actual installed capacity. Several ways to interpolate – Linear Increase of current limits – Linear Reduction of 99% Quantile limits – Implementation of intermediate Quantiles These constraints implemented as limits on flow capacity 2012.06.28 11

12. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Constrained Problem Statement 2012.06.28 12 Constraint implementation effects the following changes in the problem statement.

13. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Constrained Power Transmission 2012.06.28 13

14. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Constrained Power Transmission Availability of export to neighbours 2012.06.28 14

15. Rolando A. Rodriguez, rar@imf.au.dk Renewable Energy Research Group Aarhus University 2012.06.28 15 Thank you for your attention! Martin Greiner (professor) Morten G. Rasmussen (postdoc) Gorm B. Andresen (postdoc) Dominik Heide (former ph.d/postdoc) Rolando A. Rodriguez (ph.d. student) Sarah Becker (ph.d. student)