1. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers 2004 - 2008 Mr. Stephen Connors Laboratory for Energy and the Environment Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA Dr. Bjorn H. Bakken Energy Systems SINTEF Energy Research Trondheim, Norway email: bjorn.h.bakken@sintef.no

2. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Scandinavia – an ideal region for analysis Limited geographical scope Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark Limited connections to neighbouring countries Transparency (data availability) All major energy resources/technologies present Hydro, nuclear, coal, oil, gas, biomass, wind, … Hydro dominated supply (stochastic resource availablity) Electricity dependent demand Open markets and competition Common liberalized power market (NordPool) Emerging European gas market Emerging “green certificate” markets New renewables have to compete in current markets Challenging region for experimenting with new planning models and methodologies!

3. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Energy products of Norway 2001

4. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Total energy consumption in Norway 1970 - 2001 50 100 150 200 250 1970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000 Natural and other gasses Oil products District heating Electricity Wood and waste Coal and coke TWh/year Electricity +2.6% p.a.

5. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Electricity Generation in Nordel 2002 (TWh) DENMARK SWEDEN FINLAND NORWAY Conv. thermal Nuclear Hydro Wind 65.6 66.0 11.2 0.6 0.8 129.7 39.8 21.4 10.6 32.3 4.9

6. SINTEF Energiforskning AS NOU 1998:11 Electricity demand scenarios 2002 ® ® 2003 2007 ®

7. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Range of wind power cost Nordel Elspot prices 1995 - 2004 Weekly average (USD/MWh) USD/MWh 100 50 25 75 125

8. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Annual increase in generation and consumption 1960 - 2000 1990-20001980-19901970-19801960-1970 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 TWh/year Average increase in generation Average increase in consumption

9. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Generation capacity vs. consumption 1976 - 2001 Average generation 2002 (119 TWh/year)

10. SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSES Objectives Enable governments, industries and communities to meet their future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment Outline and evaluate likely technology portfolios, deployment paths and policy options to meet future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment Create an international arena for dissemination of results, dialogue and exchange of ideas in order to gain a swifter transition to sustainable energy services Provide a toolbox of computational tools, methods and databases for analysis and decision support under uncertainty PhD education and long-term scientific cooperation between the institutions involved

11. SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSES Sponsors Project idea created by Norsk Hydro, The Industry’s Innovation Fund at NTNU and Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU Total budget (2004-08): USD 4,300,000 Current sponsors: Norsk Hydro Norske Shell Statoil Statkraft (Norw. State Power Company) Statnett (Norw. Grid Company) Statsbygg (Directorate of Public Construction and Property) Enova (Agency for Energy efficiency and Renewable energy) The Research Council of Norway(?)...

12. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Scientific partners of TRANSES Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU Dept. of Electrical Power Engineering, NTNU Dept. of Architectural Design, History and Technology, NTNU SINTEF Energy Research The Laboratory For Energy and the Environment (LFEE) at MIT Dept. of Energy Technology, Chalmers SINTEF Materials and chemistry Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) BI (Norwegian School of Management) (?) Industrial Ecology Programme (IndEcol), NTNU (?) Chalmers MIT NTNU

13. SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSES PhD Studies A number of coordinated PhD studies and possibly PostDoc postitions will be initiated at the different participating institutions. Suggested themes are: Efficient energy use / Building technology (NTNU + MIT) The end users role and behaviour (NTNU + MIT) Hydrogen as future energy carrier (NTNU + IFE) MCDM / Decision support under uncertainty (NTNU + MIT) Emissions trading and green certificates (NTNU + Chalmers) CO2 capture technology (NTNU + Chalmers) Life Cycle Assessment (NTNU + MIT)

14. SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSES Analytical framework Supply scenarios (capacities, locations, technologies etc.) Supply scenarios (capacities, locations, technologies etc.) Demand scenarios (sectors, carriers, services etc.) Demand scenarios (sectors, carriers, services etc.) Assumptions (attributes, strategies, uncertainties etc.) Assumptions (attributes, strategies, uncertainties etc.) Presentation of results (trade-off plots etc.) Presentation of results (trade-off plots etc.) Stakeholder interaction ”Typical” scenario study TRANSES dialog process Energy system simulator(s) Energy system simulator(s) MCDM (extraction of results, trade-off analysis) MCDM (extraction of results, trade-off analysis) Economy/ Investm. Economy/ Investm. ”Analytical engine” Data input (resources, technologies, costs, efficiencies, demand etc.) Data input (resources, technologies, costs, efficiencies, demand etc.) Policy framework (emission control, taxes, incentives, etc.) Policy framework (emission control, taxes, incentives, etc.)

15. SINTEF Energiforskning AS WP.07 Generation Infrastr. WorkPackage orginization WP.04 Building Sector WP.06 Hydrogen WP.05 MARKAL WP.10 Evaluation WP.11 PhD PostDoc WP.08 Energy Scenarios WP.09 MIT Scenarios WP.03 Stakeholder Workshops WP.03 Stakeholder Workshops WP.01 Project ManagementWP.02 Networking

16. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers 2004 - 2008 Mr. Stephen Connors Laboratory for Energy and the Environment Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA Dr. Bjorn H. Bakken Energy Systems SINTEF Energy Research Trondheim, Norway email: bjorn.h.bakken@sintef.no

17. SINTEF Energiforskning AS

18. TRANSES Project plan - Overview

19. SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSES – current activities (first year) Identify adequate analytical tools Preliminary studies with EMPS model and MIT Trade-off New or existing models and methodologies Input data and assumptions Current system, new resources, technological alternatives, macroeconomic trends etc. Establishing efficient ways of cooperation between participating institutions Core activities in Trondheim, Norway Employing PhD students Establish stakeholder group Initial stakeholder meetings Extend the funding for the project

20. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Multi-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis (1) TRANSES: Not just another scenario study! Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Trade-off Analysis Scenario planning approach developed to facilitate dialogue and learning among multi-stakeholder audiences Graphical presentation of trade-offs Large Number of Technological Options Multi-Option Strategies Large Number of Uncertainties Multiple Futures (fuel prices, demand etc.) Large Number of Goal States/Attributes Multiple Stakeholders, Conflicting Goals MIT has extensive experience in applying Multi-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis New England, Switzerland, Shandong (China), ….

21. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Multi-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis (2) Source: SR Connors, MIT

22. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Multi-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis (3) Features Helps facilitate stakeholder dialogues Identifies “Good” and “Bad” strategies Identifies competing/complementary sets of options Recognizes different “Deployment Schedules” of different options Identifies “Robust/Flexible” versus “Optimal” strategies Supported by Simulation and optimisation tools E.g. EMPS model, Markal, Prosym, others “Analytical package” still to be determined Stakeholder workshops Emphasize stakeholder interaction and dialogue Challenges Market aspect Decentralised planning, multiple decision makers Consistent representation of investments Market driven, high risk

23. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Demand uncertainties Driving forces for growth in electricity demand Substitution of oil to electricity Increased comfort (kWh/m 2 ) Increased activities (m 2 and NOK) Domestic changes (m 2 per capita) Uncertainties in demand Development of district heating Development of natural gas Development of hydrogen etc.

24. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Residential electricity consumption in Norway (%) Space heating41 Hot water24 Lighting11 Cooling8 Cooking4 Washing3 Drying2 Other equipment7

25. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Peak demand records 1990 - 2002 Available generation capacity in winter (23 – 24.5 GW)

26. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Exisiting demand scenarios SINTEF 1996 Energy +1% p.a. Peak power +1.2% p.a. NOU 1998:11 ‘Green Brainpower’ +0.8% p.a. ‘Climate Road’ +0.2-0.7% p.a. ‘Steady Course’ +1.3% p.a. ‘Long Journey Up’ +1.5% p.a. Nordel area: +8% from 2000 to 2010

27. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Supply options (1) Hydro power Politically and environmentally controversial International electricity exchange European markets? Emissions trading and certificate markets? Conventional gas power Politically and environmentally controversial Gas power with CO 2 removal High investments and reduced efficiency Direct use of gas Expensive infrastructure Environmentally controversial

28. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Supply options (2) Wind power High potential, but not without problems District heating with renewable energy sources Expensive infrastructure Biomass and waste Currently only heat generation Waste is paid fuel! Hydrogen Promising technology Expensive Not an energy source!!

29. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Demand side options (1) Local energy studies Demand forecasts Resource mapping Supply and infrastructure Local generation Utilize electricity and heat Heat pumps Alternative for heating, but increases dependence on electricity Passive (thermal) solar systems End-user flexibility / Demand side bidding

30. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Demand side options (2) Power intensive industries 30-35 TWh Selling power “back” to the market Increased efficiency (kWh/NOK) Transport sector Main source of CO 2 in Norway Building locations New building codes and techniques Less effect than expected Slow turnover of buildings

31. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Climate issues Global, regional (Europe) and national level Kyoto protocol GHG emissions related to 1990 level Joint international implementation possible EU directives Pre-Kyoto GHG permit trading system limited to large thermal power plants National directives and incentives Pre-Kyoto GHG permit trading system under development Swedish green certificate market established May 2003 Possible development to common Nordic market

32. SINTEF Energiforskning AS Range of wind power cost 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00 13579111315171921232527293133353739414345474951 Week NOK/MWh 1995 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 Nordel Elspot prices 1995 - 2003 Weekly average (EURO/MWh)