1. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Short range ensemble forecasting at Météo-France status and plans J. Nicolau, Météo-France

2. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Outline Operational configuration Post-processing LAMEPS experiment Combination of different SVs sets (Hungary) Forecasting Extreme Water Levels in Estuaries Forecasting uncertainty on wind power Future plans

3. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Ensemble based on Météo-France operational global model ARPEGE (variable mesh)  PEACE (Prévision d’Ensemble A Courte Échéance) T358c2.4 version (operational ARPEGE resolution  ~20km over France) Initial state uncertainties with SVs 11 members (ARPEGE operational + 10 perturbed members) 1 run/day (18H) Up to 60h Operational configuration

4. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Singular Vectors computation Targeting over Atlantic Ocean and Western Europe Optimization time window : 0-12h Total Energy norm (initial and final time) Selection of the 16 first SVs Linear combination according to the statistical errors of analysis No physics (except diffusion) Low resolution : T L 95 regular truncation

5. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Svs targetting area

6. SRNWP workshop - Bologne

9. Post-processing : statistical adaptation Multi-linear regression (Pseudo-PP) 2m Temperature, 10m Wind speed Training (3 years) on the control run Coefficients computed over the first 24h forecast Then applied to the corresponding steps (ie coeffs 6h applied at 30h and 54h)  + more spread  - less unbiaised ~500 sites over France

10. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Calibration Talagrand diagrams Dynamical (last 40 days) and global (over all of the sites) training –+ sample size –- no local effects ~500 sites over France 2m temperatures, 10m Wind speed, 24hTP

11. SRNWP workshop - Bologne PEACE coupled with ALADIN 48H forecasts 10km mesh grid 20 cases of heavy precipitations Compared to observations data (~1100 rain gauges) LAMEPS experiment (1)

12. SRNWP workshop - Bologne HR LAMEPS experiment (2)

13. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Observations Probabilities from PEACE/ALADIN Probabilities from PEACE Probabilities for 12hRR > 5,10 and 20mm - Step 24h 24 Sept. 1999 LAMEPS experiment (3)

14. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Combination of SVs –Collaboration MF/HMS (E.Hägel) –Experiments on different targetting areas –Computation of a set of SVs on Central Europe –Selection of independent SVs from the first set and combination –Then integration with the global ARPEGE based ensemble system for a ten day period

15. SRNWP workshop - Bologne MSLP T850z500 WS10 Average standard deviation over Hungary for the period 10/07/2004-19/07/2004 for MSLP, ws10, T850, z500 for different experiments with the model ARPEGE results with combination of SVs results with the former PEACE target domain

16. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Combination of SVs The improvement we achieved is comperable with the case when we changed only the target domain It would also be possible to use different target times for computing the two sets of SVs, maybe further improvement could be achieved Possibility to implement this new computation in the operational PEACE configuration. See Edit’s poster for further informations !

17. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Uncertainty on wind power Project with : –EDF (wind power production data) –EMP (wind power production model) –MF (wind forecast distributions from PEACE) Evaluation over 18 months Selection of wind power sites over France

18. SRNWP workshop - Bologne

19. Over level Observed level Astronomic tide Under level Nuclear power plant cooling Forecasting Extreme Water Levels (1) Storm surges

20. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Storm Surges Model Initial State Bathymetry Storm surges Atmospheric Forcing (WS, WD, MSLP) Forecasting Extreme Water Levels (2)

21. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Wind speed MSLP Wind direction Forecasting Extreme Water Levels (3)

22. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Future plans Work on SVs (stretched, physics, area, time, combination) Model perturbation Evolved perturbation Downscaling –Coupling with the limited area model ALADIN  heavy precipitations predictions Post-processing

23. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Great scale forecast : –deterministic model –multi-model approach –different lagged forecast –Ensemble : stamps, spread –Multi-analysis ensemble (initial state sensitivity) Sensitive weather –Probabilistic forecat –Multi-ensemble approach

24. SRNWP workshop - Bologne Discussion How to deal with different models/ensembles ? How to rely uncertainty from ensembles to the deterministic forecast from high resolution models (eg epsgrams vs det. Atmograms) ? How to rely different distributions (eg « mixed epsgrams ») ?