1. Magnus Matisons Brussels 4 June Setting the scene- The forest-based sector contribution to growth of the bio based economy

2. more use of renewable energy in the transport sector. Increased use of renewable energy and products based on forest biomass Our vision is to change the society in long- term process towards

3. BioFuel Region – where? 225 464 km 2 (Holland 41 500 km 2 ) 97% Forest land

4. Efficient forest biomass supply chain for biorefineries 20120101-20140630 - Budget 2.5 M € Results: www.biofuelregion,sewww.biofuelregion,se

5.  Misleading conclusion 1: Carbon debt  They assume that first you burn the tree and then you grow it  It is not possible to burn a tree that has not already grown !  If an analysis of the carbon cycle of a forest is limited to a short time period or a single stand the interaction over time and space might be overlooked, and misleading conclusions are the consequence.  Too narrow boundaries of an analyses lead to misleadeing results

6. Substitution 470 kg CO 2 /m 3 s This analysis ignores that mature slower growing trees occupy the space that could otherwise be utilized by young faster growing trees. Old trees will after some time no longer be a carbon sink but a slow carbon emitter. Misleading conclusion 2: Leave the trees in the forest as a carbon sink

7. The capacity of forests to store carbon is used up by the present generation, The fossil fuel resources are depleted, Climate change will be accelerated as soon as the forests don’t absorb additional carbon  Misleading results of a too-narrow analysis about the role of forests in the carbon cycle might cause decision makers to post-pone the transformation of the energy systems to the next generation Sustainability cannot be reduced to a concept of a few decades defined by political targets  The transformation of productive growing forests to unproductive mature forests and using fossil fuels instead is in several respects not sustainable :

8. Sustainability Criteria, Traceability, ILUC - OK But what about fossil fuels ! ILUC-FACTOR cereals and other starch rich crops 12 g CO2/MJ Suger crops 13 g CO2/MJ Oil crops 55 g CO2/MJ 8 Fossil oil 87g CO2/MJ Rapeseed oil – 95 g CO2/MJ Palm oil – 105 g CO2/MJ Soya been oil – 103 g CO2/MJ

9. EROEI, Carbon footprint and Environmental impact for fossil fuels are increasing ! Biofuels shoud be compared with Unconventional > 100g CO2/MJ Not Conventional 87g CO2/MJ

10. The oil industry’s global investment 2007-2011 Source : SIMON MUI, PH.D.SCIENTIST CLEAN VEHICLES AND FUELS April 2013 BP decided to abandon all investments in wind power and focus on oil and gas TREND

11. 11 The way forward We have the raw material, the sustainable forest management, the infrastructure, the tradition and the know how but;

12. 12 “....but we need the stable long-term investment conditions......” 2000201020202030 LOW 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 10 20 30 ~ crude Diesel/gasoline Today’s cost for advanced biofuels In Europe € / MWh 100 €/MWh = ~4.4 USD/g.g.e. Long term stable legislation is required to cope with the difference With permission from Ingvar Landälv

13. Natures Carbon Capture and Storage - We can use more of it! If the present Swedish forest use strategy is continued, the long-term climate change mitigation benefit will correspond to more than 60 million tonnes of avoided or reduced emissions of carbon dioxide annually, compared to a scenario with similar consumption patterns in society but where non-renewable products are used instead of forest-based products. On average about 470 kg of carbon dioxide emissions are avoided for each cubic meter of biomass harvested, after accounting for carbon stock changes, substitution effects and all emissions related to forest management and industrial processes. Source: Potential Roles of Swedish Forestry in the Context of Climate Change Mitigation Tomas Lundmark et al Thank You!