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October 17, CMAS 2006 conference

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Presentation on theme: "October 17, CMAS 2006 conference"— Presentation transcript:

1 October 17, 2006 CMAS 2006 conference
Future projection of surface ozone in East Asia with CMAQ and REAS inventory Toshimasa Ohara, Jun-ichi Kurokawa, Hiroshi Tanimoto (National Institute for Environmental Studies) Kazuyo Yamaji, Hajime Akimoto (Frontier Research Center for Global Change) Itsushi Uno (RIAM, Kyushu University) Nobuhiro Horii (Institute of Developing Economies)

2 Background & Key Questions
O3 in Japanese sites Surface ozone in Japanese sites are increasing. Asian emissions are rapidly growing and will increase in future. What is influence of increasing emissions on evolution of O3 ? What is the impact of changing emissions on O3 in future ?

3 Objectives & Approach Future projection of surface ozone over East Asia. To do so, Ozone simulation between 1980 and 2003 with CMAQ and emission inventory (REAS). Validation of modeled seasonal and long-term variations by ground-based observations. Future projection of O3 based on emission scenarios for 2010 and 2020. O3 meas. at multiple sites Regional CTM (CMAQ) - validation improvement Emission inventory (REAS) - historical, current, and future emissions

4 Outline (1) Emission inventory (REAS) & future projection
(2) Ozone simulation from 1980 to 2003 (3) Future changes of surface ozone (4) Summary and conclusions

5 Outline (1) Emission inventory (REAS) & future projection
(2) Ozone simulation from 1980 to 2003 (3) Future changes of surface ozone (4) Summary and conclusions

6 Regional Emission inventory of Asia (REAS)
●Base year 1995,2000 =>1980～2003 ●Region South, south-east and east Asia Completed

7 Fuel Consumption Matrix [species, region, fuel, sector]
Flow chart of estimation for emission Fuel combustion Process & agricultural emission China Others Energy （IEA、China) Emission factor Energy （IEA、UN) Activity Fuel Consumption Matrix [region, fuel, sector] Emission Factor Emission control Emission Matrix [species, region, fuel, sector] Population Road NW 0.5o×0.5°gridded emission

8 Trend of NOx emissions in Asia
10.7 Mt/year (1.0) Mt/year (1.5) Mt/year (2.3)

9 Future prediction of air pollution
●Projected year:　2010, ( ← base year 2000) ●Scenario: China (Reference, Policy fail, Policy Succeed) Others (Reference) Emission scenarios in China Scenario Concept Energy demand Environmental Policy Reference Sustainable Middle Positive Policy Succeed Environment Low Highly positive Policy Failed Current High

10 Change of NOx emissions in future
Asian NOx emissions Chinese NOx emissions up to 2020 1.0　　 　 Recent growth exceeds “Policy failed” case ! China Japan Other East Asia Southeast Asia India Other South Asia ・Asian NOx emissions will be growing in future in any scenario. ・Chinese NOx, which dominate Asian growth, depends strongly on scenario. ・Recent growth in China exceeds “the worst case”.

11 Change of NMVOC emissions in future
Asian NMVOC emissions China Japan Other East Asia Southeast Asia India Other South Asia NMVOC/NOx in Chinese emissions NMVOC/NOx 2000 7.0 2020PSC 12.3 2020REF 11.4 2020PFC 8.4 1.0　　 　 (mol/mol) ・Asian NMVOC emissions will be growing in future in any scenario. ・Dependence of NMVOC emissions on scenario is lower than of NOx. ・However, NMVOC/NOx depends strongly on scenario.

12 Outline (2) Ozone simulation from 1980 to 2003
(1) Emission inventory (REAS) & future projection (2) Ozone simulation from 1980 to 2003 (3) Future changes of surface ozone (4) Summary and conclusions

13 Outline of CMAQ simulation
Base-model ・ CMAQ ver.4.4 Emission inventory (EI) ・ REAS ・ TRACE-P biomass burning Meteorology ・ RAMS with NCEP Global analysis Chemistry ・ SAPRC99 scheme Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions ・ CHASER (Global CTM; Sudo et al., 2002) Validation ・ extensive surface observations Multi-year simulations with year- dependent EI and meteorology. Future simulations with future EI and fixed meteorology for 2000. RIS TAP SAD RYO OKI HAP TSM ONW OGS YON Ozone station Domain: 6400km×5600km (78×68 grids) Horizontal： 80km×80km Vertical： 14layer（RAMS=23 layer）up to 23km

14 Ozone stations by EANET & WMO
Validation of simulated temporal variations ① R=0.3 ② R=0.5 ③ R=0.6 ④ R=0.6 ⑤ R=0.7 ⑥ R=0.7 Ozone stations by EANET & WMO ⑦ R=0.9 ⑧ R=0.8 CMAQ Obs. ⑨ R=0.7 R=0.9 Yamaji et al. (2006)

15 Impacts of ozone from Asian continent (June)
Monthly ozone concentration Ozone from Asian continent > 60 ppb 5~15 ppb Contribution of Asian continent = 1/10 ~ 1/5 Japanese O3 is strongly influenced by that produced from Asian continent. Tanimoto et al. (2005)

16 Long-term variations of surface ozone over Japan & Chinese emissions
Observed O3 over Japan (average of 350 monitoring stations) d(O3) = (O3)year– (O3) (ppb) Modeled O3 over Japan d (Emis.) = Eyear – E Mt yr-1 NOx & NMVOC emissions in China Year ・ CMAQ can reproduce the long-term trend of surface O3 over Japan. ・ O3 trend in Japan is correlated with that of Chinese emissions.

17 Outline (3) Future changes of surface ozone
(1) Emission inventory (REAS) & future projection (2) Ozone simulation from 1980 to 2003 (3) Future changes of surface ozone (4) Summary and conclusions

18 Future change of surface ozone
2000 2020PFC ppm 2020PFC Quite rapid increase in Central and south China !!! ppm

19 Changes of surface ozone under three scenarios
NOx JUN JUN JUN 2020年の各シナリオケースは、オゾン濃度の伸び( )を採用。 緯度平均図は、105E-145E、20N-45Nの囲まれた範囲。 NMVOC YEAR YEAR YEAR Zonal mean of O3 growth Zonal mean of emission growth ・Asian O3 in future depends on emission scenario. ・In REF and PFC scenarios, O3 evolutions in East Asia are predicted.

20 Trends and future changes of surface ozone over Japan and Chinese emissions
NOx VOC Past Future High sensitive to NOx Low sensitive to VOC d(Emis.)/E % ・O3 growth seems to be more sensitive to Chinese emissions for NOx than for NMVOC. Modeled O3 over Japan PFC REF PSC d(O3) = (O3)year– (O3) (ppb) d(Emis.) = Eyear – E Mt yr-1 NOx & NMVOC emissions in China Year ・In future, surface O3 over Japan is proportional with Chinese emissions.

21 Frequency of hours with O3 exceeding standard
Percentage of hours exceeding O3 standard (60 ppb) Figure7 60ppbを超える確率。(100％→年間を通して60ppb超え。各々の季節のMAXは25％) BJ SH HK KT KS ・In future, number of hours exceeding O3 standard will increase over East Asia. 　　　　　　 However, its percentage depends on emission scenario.

22 Summary and conclusions
● Increases of Asian emissions are continuing at present. (e.g.) NOx increased 3 times from 1980 to 2003. ● Asian emissions will increase in future, but it depends on the scenarios. ● REAS/RAMS/CMAQ can catch the feature of seasonal and long-term variations of O3 observation. ● Model with an emission scenario predicts that future O3 may be an important environmental issue in Asia. ● Grow of Chinese emissions influences the evolution of O3 over Japan. This will be going in future.

23

24 Chinese energy consumption in three scenarios
PJ/yr 1.0　　　　 ・Chinese energy consumption will be growing in future in any scenario. ・Increasing rate strongly depends on scenario.

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