1. 1 Co-benefits of options for cleaner energy use in China Wellcome Trust Meeting, London, May 27, 2008 Kristin Aunan, CICERO China – an important country for future global warming Top-down and bottom up assessment of co- benefits of climate policies

2. 2 Why co-benefits? Climate-change and air-pollution links Source link: CO 2 and the main air pollutants to a large extent have the same sources Air pollutants, especially tropospheric ozone and particles, play an important role in the climate system Chemistry: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs (e.g. increased CO may increase the lifetime of CH 4 )

3. 3 Coal use in China is rocketing 4.5% growth in global coal consumption last year 72% of the global increase due to China Source: BP Amoco 2007

4. 4 Probably large emissions in the pipe line

5. 5 Urban air pollution - Chinese cities among the worst

6. 6 Air pollution standards exceeded x times 340 mill. people in cities where PM 10 > 100 g/m 3 (58% of urban population Class III and above) 70 mill. people in cities where PM 10 > 150 g/m 3 In addition: Indoor air pollution in rural areas is severe 00 Source: World Bank/SEPA, 2007

7. 7 2a) Bottom-up study: Energy saving and clean coal technologies in Shanxi province. CO 2 reductions and health co-benefits 1. Top-down approach: Assessment of a CO 2 tax in China using macroeconomic model (CGE), accounting for health and agricultural co-benefits Estimating short-term benefits from GHG reducing projects and policies – three examples

8. 8 3. Bottom-up studies: Health benefits from reducing exposure to indoor air pollution from solid fuel burning in peoples homes 2b) Bottom-up study: ‘Cleaner Production’ projects in Taiyuan. CO 2 reductions and health co-benefits

9. 9 Implementing a CO 2 tax in China: Welfare analysis for 2010 including health benefits 1.

10. 10 Welfare analysis including health benefits and avoided crop loss due to reduced surface ozone (NOx- ozone –crop link) ’No regrets’ CO 2 abatement: 15% - 20%

11. 11 Impacts of two levels of a CO 2 tax, 2010 (percentage change relative to baseline)

12. 12 Bottom-up studies in Taiyuan: Clean coal and energy efficiency projects Detailed analysis of projects In Taiyuan: Energy efficiency improvements at Taiyuan Iron and Steel Company; District boiler house; Coal briquetting factory Shanxi province: Co-generation; Industrial boilers; Coal washing; Briquetting 2.

13. 13 Health co-benefits of CO 2 reductions often higher than costs

14. 14

15. 15 Co-benefits from targeting rural energy Nearly 3/4 of the Chinese population use biomass and coal for cooking and heating WHO: 420 000 premature deaths annually due to indoor air pollution from solid fuel use in China 3. Mill people

16. 16 Very large reductions in exposure to PM 10 can be obtained from targeted interventions in the household sector ΔPWE (μg/m 3 PM 10 ) for three abatement scenarios in mainland China: 1) Clean fuels in urban residences, 2) partial fuel switch in rural residences, and 3) IAQ standard (150 μg/m 3 ) met in all households

17. 17 Most likely very large health benefits from interventions Current methodologies for health impact assessment not adequate Research needed!

18. 18 Solid fuel burning affects global and regional climate Global integrated radiative forcing for a 1 y pulse of emissions from Asian households in 2000 (100 y time horizon) From Aunan et al., in progress

19. 19 ’Cutting the curve’ – avoiding the coal rung on the energy ladder good for the climate But: As income increases in rural areas people tend to switch to coal Source: NRCSTD and Fafo A/S, 2006, "Life in Western China: Tabulation Report of Monitoring Social and Economic Development in Western China", Beijing: China Statistics Press (Figure: Kristin Dalen (Fafo))

20. 20 A positive trend in reverse: 11% increase in residential coal consumption 2000-2005 China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2006

21. 21 Current emission – integrated radiative forcing (100 y time horizon)

22. 22 30% of biomass is replaced by coal, no sulfur removal in coal

23. 23 30% of biomass is replaced by coal, full sulfur removal in coal

24. 24 Barrow, Alaska, 71°N Contribution to BC in snow, Barrow, April 15, 2005 BC may also enhance melting of snow and ice in the Arctic

25. 25 Summary Clean coal technologies and energy efficiency improvements are cost-efficient options for co- control of air pollution and CO 2 emissions Policies promoting clean household fuels in China may substantially reduce population exposure to particulate air pollution and may also be beneficial for regional and global climate

26. 26 Research needs Clean biomass technologies probably part of the solution. What are the viable options and what are their benefits for public health, climate, and development? Impacts of air pollutants on crops in Asia may be large – little knowledge (ozone, regional haze) Excellent research communities exist. Strong tradition for using these as policy advisors among Chinese policy makers Associate Professor Shuxiao Wang at Tsinghua University