1. Dr. Max Loewenstein ESD/ARC Dr. Laura Iraci ESD/ARC, Dr. Cristina Milesi CSUMB/ARC With Contributions from Katie Pitts, Ariana Gonzales, and Matthew Little (NASA Develop), Nicole Burroughs (NASA USRP) 18-19 July 2011 Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) Workshop II Climate Change Adaptation Research At NASA Ames Research Center

2. Center Overview Background and Mission 2 ARC @ Mt. View CA, Southern SF Bay, N Silicon Valley 2800 employed Roles: Astrobiology, Supercomputing, Aeronautics, Nanotechnology NASA mission support: National airspace safety, Thermal protection (shuttle, Mars missions), Search for habitable planets, EOS & OCO Satellite validation Assets: Simulators, Wind Tunnels, 20G Centrifuge, Pleiades Supercomputer And: Earth science, Extreme environments=Mars analogs ESPO supports airborne science/Icebridge (Icesat fill-in)

3. 3 Mediterranean climate, dry season, rainy season Climate Hazards: SL Rise: loose half of the runway w. 40 cm SLR and levees failure, affect plume of soil contaminants Center Overview Climate Hazards and Vulnerabilities

4. Source: IPCC, NOAA, USGS SRES A1B Projection Golden Gate gauge Local vs Global Sea Level Rise 40cm by 2050

5. 5 Mediterranean climate, dry season, rainy season Climate Hazards: SL Rise: loose half of the runway w. 40 cm SLR and levees failure, affect plume of soil contaminants Increased storm/precipitation intensities: Center flooding (Feb 1998 flooded the Center; was an El Nino year) Earlier snowmelt =>increase in power and water costs Vulnerabilities: Levees of inadequate height Wildlife, wetland conservation (mandated by US Fish & Wildlife) Air permits Center Overview Climate Hazards and Vulnerabilities

6. Research: Historical and Projected Temperatures and Cooling Degree Days Moffett Field, CA Days with T > 90F San Jose, CA

7. Research: Historical and Projected Precipitation No historical trend, but occasional extremes precip in El Niño years Modeled 1997/8 streamflow Projected streamflow with precipitation increased 15% Sandbagging during 1997/8 flood

8. Research: Coupling Climate and Land Use Change Projected Impervious Surface under SRES A1B 2010 to 2100 Bierwagen et al. (PNAS) 2010

9. SRES A1 vs A2 over US urban areas (kg C) (km 2 ) (mm) 2100 Runoff 2100 Vegetation Productivity +54% +110% +60% +90% -40% -25% Impervious Area GPP Runoff 2100 Tmax 2100 Precip Coupling Climate and Land Use Change Research: Coupling Climate and Land Use Change TOPS outputs based on GFDL 1950-2100 1km downscaled Tmax, Tmin, Precip, VPD, veg productivity (GPP), ET, runoff

10. Coupled Climate-LUC impact on Ecosystem Services Coupling Climate and Land Use Change Research: Coupling Climate and Land Use Change Climate Impacts on Ecosystem Services at NASA ARC

11. Research: Climate Change impact on ARC Water Source Ecosystem

12. Center Inventory Datasets and GIS layersWhite PapersReportsWebsites Full Details on Central Desktop

13. Climate-Related Interactions with ARC Managers 13 Chief of the ARC Environmental Management Division (EMD) is a collaborator on our climate adaptation proposal Green Ames Monthly Meetings with EMD and Facilities personnel Periodic updates with ARC Master Planner Organizing AGU session with ARC Sustainability Lead (reports to Center Deputy Director Zornetzer) Adaptation measures already implemented in response to Executive Order (GHG emissions reduction w. electric vehicles, water reclamation on golf course, LEED Platinum Sustainability Building)

14. 14 Posters Presented at AGU 2010 Bay Area stakeholders attended ARC Adaptation Workshop (SFPUC, CEC, USACE, SF Bay Conservation & Development Commission, neighboring towns) Presentation with Ann Clarke at Association of Women for Energy and Environment Interest from Palo Alto City Council Greenhouse Gas Strategies in a Changing Climate Panel at Air & Waste Management Association Conference (Nov 2011, San Francisco) Organizing session at AGU 2011 PA11. Climate Change Science for Communities and Institutions Climate-Related Interactions Outside Community

15. To the Center: - Needs resources to enable audits and implement adaptation measures (meters, valves, timers) - Incorporate cost-benefit analysis under CC - Close the loop of the CASI efforts through more effective communication with decision makers (participation in Facilities Utilization Review Board?) - Collect more data (wind, soil moisture,..) To other NASA Centers, Nation/Globe: - We are sharing data resources on NEX - Preliminary TOPS outputs are available for continental US: coupled climate/LUC analysis can be repeated for other NASA Centers, watersheds, cities - Workflow capturing allows rapid implementation of runs/analysis to other regions of the globe Extending CASI Benefits

16. 40cm SLR overlaid on SF Bay map

17. 17 Sustainability Base: Platinum LEED

18. Precip trends Coyote Upper Tuolumne