1. Ozone plume formation and impact of environmental measures in the ESCOMPTE area I. Coll, F. Lasry, S. Fayet, M. Samaali and J.L. Ponche

2. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling Modelling site : The Berre – Fos – Marseille area on the Mediterranean French coast Site description CO emissions VOC emissions Production/distribution energy Industry waste Résidential Road traffic Non-road traffic Agric/natural sources Fos-Berre Marseille Site of the large ESCOMPTE 3D campaign in summer 2001

3. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling - Regional domain 140*140 km2 - Horizontal resolution : 4km - Vertical resolution: sigma-P levels - 15 levels from the ground to 3km Boundary conditions provided by the continental version of CHIMERE MM5 * version 3.6 - Boundary layer scheme: MRF PBL or Hong-Pan PBL - Microphysic: Schultz, 1995 - Radiativ Scheme: Rapid Radiativ Transfer Model - Surface scheme: NOAH Land Surface Model Two way-nudging  = 6 heures * www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5 O3P+O3->nothing O3P+NO2->NO O1D+M->O3P+M O3+NO->NO2 O3+NO2->NO3 NO+NO3->2*NO2 NO2+NO3->NO+NO2 HO+HONO- >NO2 HO+NO3->HO2+NO2. HO+CO->HO2+CO2. HO+CO+M->HO2+CO2+M HO+O3->HO2 HO2+NO->HO+NO2 HNO4+HO->NO2 HO2+O3->HO HO2+HO2->H2O2 HO2+HO2+M->H2O2+M. NO3+HO2->0.8*HO+0.8*NO2+0.2*HNO3. SAPRC99 * - 80 species, 33 emitted - 240 reactions - Detailed radical chemistry - Detailed speciation of VOC * Documentation of the SAPRC-99 chemical mechanism for VOC reactivity assessement, Carter Dedicated emission inventory (PRIMEQUAL 2 – PREDIT Project - MEDD) AIRMARAIX, LPCA Resolution: 1 and 4 km 95 species 15 activity sectors EMISSIONSDYNAMIC BOUNDARY CONDITIONS CHEMISTRY PRIMEQUALMM5 CHIMERE continental Simulations Scenarios SAPRC99 EMISSIONSDYNAMIC BOUNDARY CONDITIONS CHEMISTRY DEDICATED.MM5 CHIMERE continental Simulations Scenarios SAPRC99Approach CHIMERE model to study the pollutant evolution CHIMERE model to study the pollutant evolution Simulation of numerous episodes : 24 days (ESCOMPTE IOPs and 2003 heat wave) - Model validation Simulation of numerous episodes : 24 days (ESCOMPTE IOPs and 2003 heat wave) - Model validation Oxidant-precursor relationship Oxidant-precursor relationship Prospective scenario aproach Prospective scenario aproach

4. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling Model validation Statistical interpretation by zone Statistical interpretation by zone Correlation, bias Correlation, bias (un)paired peak accuracy (un)paired peak accuracy Predicted and missed exceedances, fake alerts Predicted and missed exceedances, fake alerts

5. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling Evaluate ozone production Characterization of ozone production rates Characterization of ozone production rates 0708091011121314 15 16 17 18 19 20 Ozone production is locally fast : up to 40-50 ppbv/h No more significant ozone production at 14:00 UT O3PO3

6. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling Evaluate ozone production Characterization of ozone production rates Characterization of ozone production rates COV bio COV anthrop P(O3)+wind COV/NOx

7. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling Determine the importance of coastal specificities Dynamical impact : nighttime breezes Dynamical impact : nighttime breezes Significant ozone production at sea Further transport of the plume towards the coast 00 010203 04 05 06 07 080910 11 12 1314 O3PO3

8. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling O3 - emission temporal dependance Emissions involved in ozone production : consequences for emission scenarios Emissions involved in ozone production : consequences for emission scenarios … 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time (UT) Anthropogenic emission tracers transport Tracer 12 Tracer 14Ozone CoincidenceNO Coincidence From 14:00 TU : Emissions not included in the ozone plume LOCAL TIME 16:00 UT

9. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling Ozone dependance upon precurors (1) Sensitivity Conditions Conditions NOx_40 COV_40 COV_40: Local impact NOx_40: Effect at a larger scale

10. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling (2) Identification of VOC participation in PO3 Precursors involved in ozone production Precursors involved in ozone production IR =∂[O 3 ]/∂[COV i ] Isoprène A-pinène AROMATIC2 Ethène CO Sources ponctuelles Sources surfaciques COV22.451.9 CO218.4210.2

11. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling (3) Exploration of VOC oxidation pathways Tracer approach : release of inert species in the chemical scheme in order to follow VOC degradation within the model Bring information on the participation of a compound to O3 production Not a “destructive approach” Quantification of ozone production from primary VOC and CO 2D view of areas impacted by VOC and CO oxidation Comparison of ozone yield from various VOCs

12. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling Ozone production rate NOT CONCERNED BY EMISSION REDUCTION PO 3 from each species ALKA ALKE AROM BIO CO HCHO => 3 ppbv/h How much does each compound participate in ozone production rates ?

13. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling Ozone yield NOT CONCERNED BY EMISSION REDUCTION ALKA ALKE AROM BIO CO HCHO O 3 produced from each species How much does each compound participate in ozone concentrations ?

14. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling CO ALKENES ALKANES C2H4 BIOGENICS AROMATICS HCHO Plume transect study Plot of the quantity of O3 formed from each VOC family along the track for different hours of the day Total simulated O3 concentration WIND DIRECTION

15. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling (4) Emission scenarios 2010 (Année cible réglementaire) Tendanciel 1999 (Base ESCOMPTE) Pollution de fond Pointes de pollution (Plan de Protection de l’Atmosphère Arrêtés Interpréfectoraux) Mesures d’urgences en vigueur 2001 (POI Escompte) 2003 (Episode photochimique Août) Réaliste National NEC (respect directive) Réaliste Régional Mesures d’urgences complémentaires VolontaristesAnticipées Sc0 Sc 1, 2 et 3 Sc BSc A Sc 4 Sc 5

16. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling 2010 emission scenarios Map of impact (scenario - base case) on O3 Map of impact (scenario - base case) on O3 Most possible scenario NEC scenario

17. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling Regional vs background control Map of impact (scenario - base case) on O3 (ppbv) Map of impact (scenario - base case) on O3 (ppbv) Gradient of impacts REGIONAL CONTROL OF EMISSIONS CONTINENTAL CONTROL OF EMISSIONS

18. ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop - Paris, France, 11-13 October 2006 - 19th workshop on tropospheric chemical transport modelling To go further : emergency measures Map of impact (scenario - base case) on O3 (ppbv) Map of impact (scenario - base case) on O3 (ppbv) Scenarios = light (reduce car speed) to severe (industrial and traffic control) existing emergency measures Tests of extended emergency measures Not necessary to maintain the EM after 14:00 UT