1. Seminar on Curbing Food Waste European Parliament, Brussels Saving Water from Field to Fork October 28, 2010 Jan Lundqvist, professor Chair, Scientific Programme Committee World Water Week in Stockholm www.siwi.org

2. Issues Issues Food production historically high Food production historically high So is undernourishment & overeating So is undernourishment & overeating Water for our daily bread & butter Water for our daily bread & butter Producing more or wasting less? Producing more or wasting less? Who cares? Who cares?

3. Changes in Food Supply, 1961 – 2005 Between 2007 – 2008, world food supply increased by 5% (a new record) Parallel with this, the number of undernourished increased by 150 million Energy intake requirement: 1,800 – 2,200 kcal/pers, day

4. Dramatic Jump in Undernourishment while Production increased

5. Demographic and GDP Trends Population Urban GDP (billion) (billion) ($ billion; 2005 ppp) 1800: (T. R. Malthus) < 1 913 (1820) 1900: 1.65 1950: just after WW2 2.5 7,006 2000: 6 3 56,593 (2005) 2050: ~ 9 ~ 6.5 193,318*) *) trend projection Increase: 2000 – 2050 50% 125% 400% Source: GDP trend projection: Hillebrand, E., 2009.

6. Socio-economic Trends and Food and Water in China Source: Junguo Liu & Hub Savenije Water footprint Food supply in China, 1961 - 2005

7. Another 2-3 billion in a generation - with dreams - want/demand/right to sense development

8. Climate change may reduce potential yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030 (Lobell et al. 2008 in Science) Perspectives on the Future ” One Country’s Table Scraps, Another Country’s Meal ”, NYT, May 18, 2008 112 pounds of food wastage per month for a family of four Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century (Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009) Food production to increase by 70% by 2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009. Similar message in World Bank (2008), Norman Borlaug (2002), etc. Alternative/complementary Option Sanctioned discourse Better care of agr. produce; storage, transport & marketing - Curb food losses Attention to use & food intake - Reduce food waste

9. Food Security … …exists when all people, at all times, have physical and ” …exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life for an active and healthy life” Rome Declaration (FAO, 1996) - How much is ”sufficient”? 1,800 – 2,200 kcal/person, day on average - What to do when preferences deviate from ”sufficient”?

10. Undernourishment Undernourishment & overeating 1,400 million overweight, 400 million obese 400 million obese – numbers increasing 1,000 million undernourished - numbers increasing? (Source: Economist, Dec. 13, 2003; S. Brichieri-Colombi, WWW 2006)

11. Food production: The amount in the field Food supply: The amount available on the market; production minus losses before market, conversion Food demand: The amount bought/procured by households, public institutions and other social entities Food consumption: the intake of food, i.e. the amount of food eaten Food absorption: the uptake of energy & nutrients in human body Considerable losses, conversions and wastage along the food chain What Food for What Food/Nutrition Security?

12. Much Food does not reach Market

13. Losses & Waste at a high Cost Monetary US – estimated US $100 billion annually UK – calculated £12 + billion annually of household waste (retail value) Water - all food produced consumes water; food waste = misuse of water, energy, etc. Green house gas emission – from production throughout the supply chain, incl disposal Income and security

14. Given: - Scarcity and competition for natural resources - High energy input agriculture is not replicable - Environmental implications of food production - Overeating >>undernourishment What is a sensible strategy for food security? and Who cares and who pushes the new agenda?

15. Water bubbles are the real thing: “… we have enjoyed a series of water ‘bubbles’ to support economic growth over the past 50 years or so….. We are now on the verge of water bankruptcy in many places with no way of paying the debt back”. World Economic Forum, January 2009

16. Source: JeanMarc Faures, FAO Climate: Significant Uncertainty and Risk Variability of rainfall – Beira, 1908 to 2009 The 7 lean and the 7 fat years – Zimbabwe, 1910 - 2000

17. “ We know exactly what needs to be done, but we do not know how to be re-elected once we have done what needs to be done” EU politician Jean Claude Juncker Political will & political skill adequate? What about social acceptance?

18. Another Perception and Policy a Generation or two ago WRAP study (UK): HHs throw away about 25% of the food they have bought, 60% of which is ”perfectly fit for consumption” Swedish school children throw away more of the food they like

19. Where is the road ahead? Water productivity improvements? Reduce post-harvest losses? Better seeds, fertilizers? Biotechnologies? Trade? Contract farming? Diet “adjustments”? Resource prudent lifestyle? Photo: J. Lundqvist