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Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana Ashwin Mysore Gerald J. Friedman Fellow in Nutrition and Citizenship.

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Presentation on theme: "Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana Ashwin Mysore Gerald J. Friedman Fellow in Nutrition and Citizenship."— Presentation transcript:

1 Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana Ashwin Mysore Gerald J. Friedman Fellow in Nutrition and Citizenship

2 Transgenic crops, agricultural development & developing countries Relevance and potential of transgenic crops in developing countries… The debate continues… ISAAA, 2007.

3 "Will it take a miracle to solve the worlds hunger problems?" Campbell, 1998; FAO, 2007; Sprague, undated; South Dakota Dept of Agriculture, undated.

4 “ Golden Rice can reduce Vitamin A Deficiency burden in India by 8-59 %” Golden Rice Humanitarian Board; UN, 1998; Stein, Sachdev and Qaim, 2008.

5 How Much Hope and How Much Hype? Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana FAO, 2001; www.luventicus.org Ashwin Mysore & Kathleen Merrigan, AFE Program, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy Under Review, World Development

6 Drought tolerant transgenic crops in pipeline- Corn, Soy, Cotton, Canola, Tomato Corn: 2010-2015 MX variety : 10 % higher yield under drought conditions MY variety : 40 % higher yield Tomato: Advanced stage of development TX variety : 20 % higher yield TY variety : 38% higher yield Africa News Network; AVRDC, 2006; Various media reports and project documents of Monsanto, Evogene

7 Why Ghana? High food insecurity among food crop growing farmers Low access to irrigation Total cultivated area (2002-05) : 5.2 mha Total irrigation potential :1.9 mha Irrigated area (2000) : 0.31mha Drought episodes, erratic rainfall compounded by declining soil fertility Corn and tomato are important crops Aggrey Fynn et al., 2006; FAOSTAT; FAO, 2005a,b; Horna et al., 2006; IWMI.

8 Estimating potential benefits Average yield and producer prices (1991-2005) Reduction in yield and gross returns due to varying intensity of drought Gains in yield due to technology adoption Technology Fee Study variables: All calculations for Ghana and the US Outcome indicator of interest: gross returns ($ / ha) with technology adoption Sprague, undated; USDA, undated.

9 LowMediumSevere Ghana153450 USA103550 Based on existing trends – cost difference between traits & countries Campos et al., 2004; Farm Service Agency, 2007; FAO, 2005a; Heisey and Edmeades, 1998; IITA, undated; USDA Risk Management Agency, 2007. Technology fees US: $127/ha; Ghana: $ 71/ha. Yield loss (%) due to drought incidence

10 Returns ($) per $ investment on technology Technology adoption Drought intensity Normal agricultural season Low drought incidence Medium drought incidence Severe drought incidence Adoption of MX Corn Ghana- 0.6-0.66- 0.74- 0.8 US- 0.4-0.46- 0.61- 0.7 Adoption of MY Corn Ghana 0.590.35 0.05- 0.21 US 1.381.1 0.55 0.19 Adoption of TX Tomato Ghana 7.15.87 4.333.04 US 14.012.52 8.766.51 Adoption of TY Tomato Ghana14.3612.05 9.136.68 US27.5424.6917.513.27

11 Sensitivity analysis for maize by considering 3 levels of technology fees Contribution of drought tolerant corn towards household food security T1: $53.3; T2: $71.0; T3: $88.8 Household (4 members) cost of meeting minimum food and nutrition requirements- $305.2 % household food and nutrition requirements met by adopting MY variety Various levels of Technology Fee($ /ha) Drought intensity Normal agricultural season Low drought incidence Medium drought incidence Severe drought incidence T1 (53.3)23.416.78.31.2 T2 (71.0)16.49.71.3- T3 (88.8)9.42.7--

12 Study implications Potential for water conservation and management in tomato production First generation corn varieties unlikely to benefit farmers Gains to US farmers greatest Technology fee – key issue which will determine technology adoption and benefits

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