1. Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York March 12, 2003

2. 2 Coincident Economic Indicators New York State New York City Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. New Jersey

3. 3 NYS Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted Claims Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Claims

4. 4 NYC Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted Claims Source: New York State Department of Labor

5. 5 Growth in Service Jobs % change from December 2001 - December 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY Calculations.

6. 6 Growth in Service Jobs December 2001 - December 2002

7. 7 Business and Consumer Services Employment Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. New York City New York State United States

8. 8 Employment in the Securities Industry Percent change from 12 months earlier New York City Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics New York State United States Percent

9. 9 Health and Social Services Employment Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. New York City New York State

10. 10 April 1989 - Mar. 1994 Jan. 2001 - Dec. 2002 Oct. 1981 - Feb. 1983 Nov. 1973 - Jan. 1977 Percent New York Recession Patterns Decline from Employment Peak to Trough Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Nov. 1969 - Feb. 1972

11. 11 April 1989 - Sep. 1993 Dec. 2000 - Dec. 2002 July. 1969 - Mar. 1977 New York City Recession Patterns Decline from Employment Peak to Trough Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Percent

12. 12 Second District Unemployment Rates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

13. 13 Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans with Installments 90 Days Past Due Percent Source: Mortgage Bankers Association New York Connecticut United States New Jersey

14. 14 Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Started During the Quarter Percent Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Connecticut New York United States New Jersey

15. 15 Office Vacancy Rates Quarterly Percent Source: Coldwell Banker. United States- Metropolitan NYC-Metropolitan NYC-Downtown Northern New Jersey

16. 16 Consumer Price Index Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. United States New York and Northeastern New Jersey

17. 17 Consumer Price Index Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. United States - Durable Goods United States - Services United States

18. 18 The Conference Board Index of Consumer Attitudes 1985= 100 Sources: The Conference Board. Note: Shading denotes NBER recessions Consumer confidence Current situation Consumer expectations Index

19. 19 Sales Tax Revenue Collections 2002 Sales Tax Revenue Collections 2001 New York State Tax Revenue Collections Year to Date Mil $ Source: Office of the New York State Comptroller

20. 20 Sales Tax Revenue Collections 2002 Sales Tax Revenue Collections 2001 New York City Tax Revenue Collections Year to Date Mil $ Source: New York City Department of Finance

21. 21 Income Tax Revenue Collections 2002 Income Tax Revenue Collections 2001 New York State Tax Revenue Collections Year to Date Mil $ Source: Office of the New York State Comptroller

22. 22 Income Tax Revenue Collections 2002 Income Tax Revenue Collections 2001 New York City Tax Revenue Collections Year to Date Mil $ Source: New York City Department of Finance

23. 23 Personal Income Percent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent United States New York Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

24. 24 Percent United States New York Percent Wages and Salaries Percent change from 4 quarters earlier Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

25. 25