1. Advertising and magazines Adam Smith Head of knowledge management ZenithOptimedia 26 th April 2005

2. ZenithOptimedia One of the leading global media services agencies 4,000 employees 162 offices in 59 countries Owned 100% by Publicis Groupe SA

3. How we forecast ad expenditure Historic base of actual spend from 1980 Four year forecast from local offices ‘Top-down’ analysis in London

4. Forecast headlines Stable global economic growth Corresponding growth in adspend Direct and interactive spend rising fastest

5. Stable growing world economy Gross Domestic Product: year-on-year % change in current prices Source: ZenithOptimedia

6. Major media* adspend growing Source: ZenithOptimedia * TV, Print, Radio, Cinema, Outdoor, Internet Adspend: year-on-year % change in current prices

7. Global adspend v GDP yr-on-yr % change (at current prices) Source: ZenithOptimedia

8. TV and internet gaining share $bn TV Newspapers Magazines Radio Outdoor 8% 36% 13% 6% 38% 9% 30% 14% 5% 38% 29% 13% 8% 5% 36% Source: ZenithOptimedia Internet 3% 5% $217bn $355bn $417bn Global adspend by media type

9. Magazine and newspaper share: world Source: ZenithOptimedia Newspapers Magazines

10. Magazine and newspaper share: Asia- Pacific Source: ZenithOptimedia Newspapers Magazines

11. Internet users 2000-2008 22 developed markets and 14 emerging Source: ZenithOptimedia Developed Emerging Combined

12. Internet: no ceiling in sight Source: ZenithOptimedia Europe N. America Asia-PacWorld

13. Media adspend – declining share of marketing Spend 2004 v 2001 % change (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France) Source: Marketing Expenditure Trends Report, London Business School

14. Achieving ROI Ninah Consulting Econometric modelling Touchpoints Consumer contact audit The ROI Blueprint Practice manual

15. Retail Point of Sale Face-to-Face Customer Service Outdoor Mail Event/ Sponsorships Magazines Radio Newsprint Delivery Fulfillment Television Telemarketing Fax Placement/ Product Sampling Branded Games Banner Ads Full-page Banners Branded Mobile Phone Sites iTV Elevator Advertising Household PDAs Branded ScreensViral Mail Mobile Mkt. PDAs PVRs Telematics Screens on Exercise Bikes Image Content Scanner Bar Code ScannerBranded CDs Branded Web Content Brand to consumer

16. Media consumption % share of time % share of the average person’s media time Source: ZenithOptimedia

17. Media reach atomising High reach Low reach Personal Communication Mass Communication Analogue TV Radio Cinema Posters Print Digital TV PC Internet Mobile internet E-mail 2004 2014 Source: ZenithOptimedia

18. Creatingawareness Mass media Integrated marketing Generatingresponse Direct Media Enhancingexperience Interactive Media Aim here

20. Honey – conventional media TV (lots of satellite) Press (7-19 year-olds) Radio

21. Honey – EMAP media partnership Dance competitions with local DJs On-screen ‘Bug’ on Kiss TV; advertorial in magazines Microsite linked to EMAP websites

22. Conclusion Traditional media good for cash, harder for growth New media good for growth but harder to manage Brand more vital in age of excess choice Brand defined by users not producers