1. Jobs Study of the Institute for Postal Studies Spring 2004 Robert Reisner Transformation Strategy

2. How Did We Get Here Today? Institute for Postal Studies (ISP) investment in postal reform research Request by Congressional Staff in March 2004 for Analysis of Jobs Impact Transformation Strategy and SLS Consulting USPS Senior Management wanted to share this application of the Mailing Industry Task Force (MITF) and ISP Work

3. Implications of Gridlock Nine Years of Debate over Postal Reform Debate over Retirement/CSRS What will impact on prices and competition be? Volume decline? Mailers Treasury Congress USPS If volume declines, how far behind will job loss follow?

4. President’s Commission View: The Stakes First Class Decline/Standard Growth 2002 2007 2012 2017 Billions pcs

5. The Commission’s Forecast Appears Outdated 6 Months Later Continuous Decline The High Point If you lose mail is it gone forever?

6. The Purpose of the Study Concern with Future Volume Where are the jobs? Impact on Jobs USPS Costs are Increased Prices Increases Will Cut Volume Without Reform & CSRS

7. MITF’s 9 Million Jobs 6Postal/Package Stakeholders 4.6Mailing Services.8USPS.6Competitors 2.2Mail Intensive Customer Segments.3Mail Order.9Publishing 1.Printing.7Associated Stakeh. – Adv. Non- DM 8.9Total

8. Specifying Where the Jobs Are Understand the Impact of Volume Decline MITF Estimate Update and Build Database Jobs Elasticities Data from USPS MITF, DMA Census Data, Update to 108 th Cong. Some industries Will be more sensitive than others To potential future volume declines

9. Jobs Impacts & USPS Reform Impacts will not be 1 to 1. But a 20% decline will affect 1.5 million jobs Impacts vary widely District to District – Even replacement of jobs creates winners and losers Over time technology may realign the economy Impacts will cause economic dislocation, especial if they are rapid 9 times as many jobs are in the private sector