1. "Through the animal and vegetable kingdoms, nature has scattered the seeds of life abroad with the most profuse and liberal hand. She has been comparatively sparing in the room, and the nourishment necessary to rear them. The race of plants, and race of animals shrink under this great restrictive law. And the race of man cannot, by any efforts of reason, escape from it.” “Population increases in a geometric ratio, while the means of subsistence increases in an arithmetic ratio.” An Essay on the Principle of Population, Thomas Malthus, 1798

2. World Population and Industrialization

3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Laboratory, Mauna Loa, Hawaii Laboratory, Mauna Loa, Hawaii

4. C.D. Keeling (1928-2005) Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide are increasing from human activity

5. Contributions to the energy budget: 1). Solar Input 2). Atmospheric Absorption 3). Reflection of Light Energy a). surface albedo, clouds, aerosols, particles b). atmospheric reflection from particles/aerosols return reflected light or IR 4). Infrared (IR) Irradiation (long wavelength, heat loss) Global Energy Budget and the Greenhouse Effect: a a a a X Four b 4

6. What are the Greenhouse Gases? Carbon Dioxide most prominent greenhouse gas in atmosphere emitted by respiration, burning fossil fuels, and deforestation humans annually add > 30 billion tons of CO 2 to atmosphere In 1996, carbon dioxide world emissions increased by 2.8%. –US: increase of 3.3% in CO 2 emissions. US continues to emit more than any other country in the world, accounting for 25% of all emissions. –European Union: increase of 2.2%, much larger than increase of 1.1% in 1995. –Eastern Europe had a decreasing rate of -2.4%. –China's increase in 1996 was 4.7%. http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/greenhouse.htm

7. Greenhouse Gases: Not Just CO 2 ! Methane (CH 4 ): 350-500 million tons added annually livestock, coal mining, drilling for oil and natural gas, rice cultivation, and garbage sitting in landfills. Atmospheric retention is 10 years, but traps 20 times more heat than CO 2. http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/greenhouse.htm Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O): 7-13 million tons, nitrogen fertilizers, human and animal waste in sewage treatment plants, automobile exhaust; atmospheric retention of N 2 O is 100 years Fluorocarbons: Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)- used in aerosol cans, refrigeration break down the ozone layer, use significantly decreased, banned in US Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's)- substitute for CFCs in refrigeration do not harm ozone layer, but are a greenhouse gas reduce emissions: recycle coolant, fix leaks, recover the coolant prior to disposal

8. C.D. Keeling (1928-2005) Greenhouse Gases from Human Activity CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O

9. IPCC, 2007 Sea level rise is mostly from thermal expansion of water, NOT from glacier or polar ice cap melt Changes in snow cover causes changes in heat absorption in a positive feedback loop Changes in Temperature, Sea Level, and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

10. IPCC, 2007 Most Aggressive Energy Management Polices Least Aggressive Energy Management Polices Projection of Earth Surface Temperatures

11. Use of Glacial Ice Cores to Determine Planetary Temperature: Oxygen Isotope Analysis in the Vostok (Antarctica) Ice Core Vostok research station has operated for over 37 years, now cooperatively operated by Russian, U.S., and French scientists. Lowest temperature ever recorded −128.6 °F. Ice core drilling gives climate information down to 3310 meters or 414,000 years before present. Ice Core Vostok Glacier Site

12. Water with 18 O is heavier than 16 O, and “heavy water” tends to remain in liquid phase during evaporation, and precipitate first during condensation. This effect causes depletion of heavy water with increasing cooler climates in increasing latitudes. Thus, precipitation formed at cooler temperatures is depleted in 18 O relative to 16 O, and can be used as a measure of the temperature of condensation.  18 O is the ratio of stable isotopes of oxygen, 18 O: 16 O. It is commonly used as a measure of the temperature of precipitation. Oxygen Isotope Ratios Reflect the Temperature of Precipitation

13. Petit J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I., Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis J. Delaygue G., Delmotte M. Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov, V.M., Lorius C., Pépin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M., Nature, 3 June 1999. Climate & Atmospheric History of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core

14. Larsen B Ice shelf Antarctica January 31, 2002 MODIS data Courtesy NSIDC

15. February 17

16. February 23

17. March 5

18. 1928 2000 The South Cascade glacier retreated dramatically in the 20th century Courtesy of the USGS glacier group South Cascade glacier in 1928 and 2000 The glacier has retreated and thinned substantially, leaving a glacial lake in its place.

19. A positive feedback loop is a self-reinforcing system, and amplifies the effect. In contrast, a negative feedback loop is self- correcting. Positive feedback occurs when a change in one component of the climate occurs, leading to other changes that eventually 'feeds back' to amplify the change. Positive feedbacks are a great concern in climate change because small changes may cause large, unexpected changes. Decreasing Reflection (Albedo) from Loss of Ice Cover Creates a “Positive Feedback Loop” Resulting in Additional Solar Heat Absorption

20. Is Global Warming a Hoax? Milankovitch Cycles: invoked to explain changes in temperature as “natural” and independent of human activity. Milankovitch described changes in the Earth’s movements. 1). Orbital Ellipicity (100,000 Yr cycle) 2). Axial Tilt (or Obliquity) (41,000 Yr cycle) 3). Precession (23,000 Yr cycle) http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/milankov.htm

21. ‘… Milankovitch's theory was largely ignored. In 1976, deep-sea sediment cores found that Milankovitch's theory did predict periods of climate change. Temperature change over 450,000 years established that major variations in climate were closely associated with changes in the geometry (eccentricity, obliquity, and precession) of Earth's orbit. Indeed, ice ages had occurred when the Earth was going through different stages of orbital variation.’ (edited for brevity) Milankovitch Cycles in Paleoclimates http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/Giants/Milankovitch/milankovitch_2.html

22. Is Global Warming a Hoax? Current CO 2 levels are unprecedented. Milankovitch cycles do coincide with Ice Ages, are appear to be responsible for these climate changes, but current CO 2 levels exceed the highest levels over the last 400,000 years by nearly 30%! Historical maximum CO 2 bearly exceeded 300 ppm, we are now nearly 390 ppm!

23. What are the options? Carbon Capture and Sequestration? Biofuel Alternatives?Solar?Nuclear?

24. Types of Biofuels Vegetable Oil Biodiesel Bioalcohols Bioalcohols (methanol, ethanol, propanol, butanol) First Generation Biofuels Biohydrogen Biohydrogen- for H fuel cells from Methanol Syngas Syngas- CO + H 2 from Biomass (or Coal) Dimethylfuran Dimethylfuran (DMF)- from glucose, fructose Second Generation Biofuels

25. Biodiesel diesel-equivalent processed fuel consists of hydrocarbon chains with methyl or ethyl esters made by transesterification of vegetable oils or animal fats can be used alone or blended with conventional diesel fuel in unmodified diesel-engine vehicles

26. Biodiesel Production Input: plant or animal triglyceride (oil), alcohol, base Base-catalyzed transesterification process Any vegetable oil works! Biodiesel production: economical, requires low temperature/pressure, high conversion http://www.inorganics.basf.com/p02/CAPortal/en_GB/portal/Biodiesel_layout_b/content/Produktgruppen/Biodiesel/Biodiesel/Chemie

27. Ethanol Basic steps for ethanol production are: fermentation of sugars (yeast), distillation, dehydration. Some sourses require hydrolysis of carbohydrates to sugars: Conversion cellulose to glucose (acid or enzyme hydrolysis) Conversion starch into sugar (enzymes). sugarcane8 units of energy for each unit expended ! Production of ethanol from sugarcane returns 8 units of energy for each unit expended ! maize1.3 units of fuel energy for each unit of energy expended! Contrast: maize returns only 1.3 units of fuel energy for each unit of energy expended!

28. Ethics of Ethanol Production from Maize Current US fuel EtOH production based on starch from maize: Impact on world food pricesImpact on world food prices Conversion of high quality food into fuel Maize agriculture requires intense use of energy & chemicals Use of premium agricultural land to produce maizeUse of premium agricultural land to produce maize

29. Ethics of Ethanol Production from Maize FDA: daily caloric intake 2400 Kcal for 130 lb student. Combustion of 300 g of ethanol produces about 2400 Kcal, one day of calories for a college student How far would a car travel on 300g EtOH? 300g EtOH = approx 0.08 gal (~300 ml) Assume 30 mpg (gas) Decrease mileage by 1/3 (lower energy density of EtOH) A car would travel about 1.6 miles with the amount of maize that would feed a college student for one day! You could feed an African family or drive a car! Disclaimer: Prof. Mulligan made this estimate without consulting an expert!

30. A Better Solution: Cellulosic Bioethanol Ethanol from Waste Biomass Cellulose- a structural material that comprises much of plant biomass examples: corn stalks, leaves, switchgrass, woodchips, available as agricultural by-products or produced on marginal land with limited resource input Current limitation is conversion of cellulose to glucose for ethanol fermentation. Cellulosic ethanol would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 85% over gasoline. Starch ethanol reduces greenhouse gas by ~20% over gasoline.

31. Conclusions: Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of biodiesel and ethanol biofuels Biofuel should provide net energy gain, environmental benefits, economically competitive, be producible in large quantities without reducing food supplies. Greenhouse gas emissions are reduced 20% by (starch) ethanol and 41% by biodiesel over fossil fuels. Neither biofuel can replace much petroleum without impacting food supplies. Dedicating 100% US corn & soybean production meets 12% gasoline, 6% diesel demand.

32. Conclusions: Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of biodiesel and ethanol biofuels Biodiesel provides sufficient environmental advantages to merit subsidy. Cellulosic ethanol produced from low-input biomass grown on agriculturally marginal land could provide much greater supplies and environmental benefits than food-based biofuels.