1. 1 Sustainable Agricultural Economic benefits of reservoir scale expansion in Balkh Basin, Afghanistan Abdelaziz A. Gohar & Frank A. Ward New Mexico State University, USA South Valley University, Qena, Egypt July 25, 2012 With support from Dr. Saud Amer, US Geological Survey

2. Road Map  Background  Balkh irrigation system  Balkh agricultural system  Historical water and land use  Research problem  Objectives  Methods (Approach)  Data  Analysis  Results  Conclusions  Path forward 2

3. 1. Background : Irrigation System  Balkh River: important source of irrigation water in northern Afghanistan.  Policy and distribution control by local authority (Mirab)  Little cooperation among neighboring mirabs  Watershed regions  Upper  Middle  Lower  80 % of population is rural  Irrigated Crops: wheat, tomato, potato,melon, rice, cotton, alfalfa, pulses 3

4. Schematic of Balkh River Canal System, Afghanistan Balkh Mushtag Siagard Abdulah Dawlatabad Chemtal Faizabad Murdian Charbulak Mingajik Nahr_Shahi Aman_Sahib Khanaqah Aqcha G4 G5 G6 G8 G7 G3 G2 G1 G12 G11 G10 G9 Reservoir Lower basin Middle Basin Upper Basin Use node gauge G13 Lower Region Middle R. Upper R

5. Background: Water use Table 1: Total water used and total land by region, Balkh river, Afghanistan Region Irrigated landWater used ha%MCM% Upper Region 82,14018211.4314 Middle Region 155,67734419.1129 Lower Region 223,18348834.1157 Total461,0001001,464.65100 5

6. Background: Land use Table 2: Total assumed irrigated Land by region and crops in Hectares Crop/RegionUpperMiddleLowerTotal Wheat8,0008,3005,20621,506 Tomato9,3522,39812,90624,656 Potato2,0082,35011,12615,484 Melon17,49847,06033,92498,482 Rice2,0082,66134,32838,997 Cotton20,11231,68338,16989,964 Alfalfa4,4005,1005,80015,300 Pulses18,76256,12581,724156,611 Total82,140155,677223,183461,000 6

7. Background: Water use Table 3: Total water in use by region (MCM) Crops / Region Upper Region Middle Region Lower Region Total Wheat15.4617.1511.6344.23 Tomato20.005.4931.9357.42 Potato4.996.2431.9643.20 Melon43.47125.0497.46265.97 Rice15.4522.08310.84348.37 Cotton57.3696.63125.88279.87 Alfalfa14.5718.0622.2154.85 Pulses40.13128.41202.19370.73 Total211.43419.11834.111,464.65 7

8. Research Problems  No water storage capacity  agricultural system suffers in droughts  Lower region users get no water  no benefit can be stored in wet period  Inadequate water institutions  Low water distribution efficiency  High water losses 8

9. Objectives 9 Assemble historical data on water supply, water use, crop yields, land in production, crop mix, crop costs and crop prices that characterize the economics of irrigated agriculture in the Balkh River Basin, Afghanistan. Integrate data into a framework that explains profitability, crop production, and crop land and water use so that Afghan ministry personnel, mirabs and farmers can understand what influences profitability and food-security effects of irrigated agriculture. Examine how profitability and food security at both the farm and basin levels are affected by additional reservoir storage capacity development in the Basin.

10. Approach 10

11. Overview  Characterize the basin’s river-canal network.  Use the canal network to predict the spatial distribution of water use and crop production patterns under stochastic future water supplies  Examine several reservoir capacities for adapting to future water supply variability  Base conditions: No reservoir capacity  Small reservoir : 50 % of average annual inflow  Medium reservoir: 100% of average annual inflow  Large reservoir: 200 % of average annual inflow 11

12. Data Sources  Torrel and Ward (2010).  Carver and Lee, 2009. consulting report  Farm budget data: USAID report, 2009  Water supply data: USAID, 2003  Food subsistence: FAOSTAT balance sheet 12

13. Methods: Details  Integrated Basin Framework Approach We developed an integrated basin scale framework to identify the potential agricultural economic benefits from constructing different reservoir capacities in Balkh River. This framework is :-  Dynamic optimization of economic benefits  Includes hydrology  Includes Land use  Economic: farm budget  Stochastic water inflow  20 years policy analysis 13

14. Xvt = Total river flows at any given v-th gauge in t-th period Xht = Flows at upstream headwater gauge Xvt = flows at upstream river gauge Xdt = diversions at upstream agricultural node Xrt = Return flow from upstream agricultural node Xmt = Unmeasured flows upstream gauge XLt = Reservoir releases at L-th upstream gauge B’s fixed coefficients 14 Hydrologic Balance

15. Objective Function NPV = Basin’s discounted agricultural economic benefits Xb ut = Total agricultural economic benefits at u-th node in t-th period r = Discount rate 15

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17. Policy Evaluation : Storage capacities  Base situation  No water storage capacities  No increase in available land  Produce historical land in production for first year  Small reservoir  Reservoir holds 50 % of average annual inflow  No increase in irrigated land  Produce no more 2 times historical land for each crops and node 17

18. Policy Evaluation : Storage capacities  Medium reservoir  Reservoir holds 100% of average annual inflow  No increase in available land  No more 2 time of historical irrigated land  large Reservoir  Reservoir can hold 200% of annual inflow  No increase in irrigated land  No more than 2 time of historical irrigated land 18

19. Results 19

20. Results : Basin Farm Income Table 4: Average Annual Net Farm Income by Reservoir Capacity, Million US $ Reservoir Capacity Net Annual Income Change in Income % Base 1390100.00 Small 16526.39119.05 Medium 17712.11127.79 Large 1847.02132.86 20

21. Results: Basin Farm Income 21

22. Results: Basin Farm Income 22

23. Results: Basin Farm Income Table 5: Total Basin Farm Income by Crop and Storage Capacity (Million US $) CropsBaseSmallMediumLarge Wheat20.55 Tomato15.5219.76 Potato0.02 Melon69.2686.9491.60 Rice17.0614.0412.5312.56 Cotton12.1511.1618.7321.57 Alfalfa0.15 Pulses3.8012.2813.6617.82 Total138.52164.91177.02184.03 23

24. Results: Irrigated Land Table 6: Average total irrigated land by region and reservoir capacity, Balkh River Basin, Afghanistan Region/ Capacity BaseSmallMediumLarge Hectares%% Upper88,387113949 Middle132,956303651 Lower96,3032731 Total317,646233644 24

25. Results: Irrigated Land Table 7: Average total irrigated land by crops and reservoir capacity, Balkh river, Afghanistan. Crops/ Capacity BaseSmallMediumLarge Hectares % change Wheat41,937000 Tomato37,75427 Potato774000 Melon145,2062632 Rice32,582-18-26 Cotton42,479-85376 Alfalfa765000 Pulses16,149224260370 Total317,646233644 25

26. Results: Irrigated Land 26

27. Results : Storage volume 27

28. Conclusions  Water is an important resource for farm income in Balkh River Basin, Afghanistan  Storage capacity could raise farm income in Basin by greater capacity to trap, hold, and release flood flows in drought periods.  Gross farm benefits increase by reservoir size.  Benefits increase at decreasing rate by reservoir size  Largest benefits for Middle region users  Benefits increase by the reservoir size for Middle and Upper  Little increase for Lower region beyond medium reservoir size. This could change with alternative water right systems.  Cultivators of rice will negatively effected by small and medium capacity  Cotton cultivators will negatively effected by small capacity 28

29. Path forward  Cost of reservoir development to compare to benefits  Hydrology benefits  Evaporation estimation  Environmental impact  Institution policies  Alternative water rights systems  Water trading  Irrigation technology  Improved crop varieties  Others 29

30. 30 Thanks Comments Welcome