1. 1 C REATING LONGITUDINAL ANALYSES USING LINKED EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE DATA 26th Annual MIS Conference February 14, 2013 Carol Jenner Washington Education Research & Data Center

2. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Why connect education and workforce information? What questions can be answered? Workforce data sources How to get workforce data Using the data Putting it all together – P-20W examples O VERVIEW 2

3. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 W HY C ONNECT E DUCATION AND W ORKFORCE I NFORMATION ? 3

4. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Between 2010 and 2020, the share of jobs requiring postsecondary education or training will increase Success in employment is a critical element in evaluating the effectiveness of education and training programs Awareness of employment outcomes of specific programs can help guide education and career decisions, as demonstrated in Washington’s Career Bridge website at careerbridge.wa.gov.careerbridge.wa.gov E MPLOYMENT IS A KEY OUTCOME 4 "Employment and Wages Online Annual Averages, 2010," Bureau of Labor Statistics.

5. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 W HAT Q UESTIONS CAN BE A NSWERED ? 5

6. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 To examine employment as an outcome Do graduates enter the workforce immediately after graduation or receipt of degree? How many grads stay in your state to work? What are the workforce outcomes for completers of a particular program? (CTE in high school, student major in postsecondary) How do employment and postsecondary enrollment relate to employment patterns established during high school? W HAT QUESTIONS ? 6

7. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 To examine employment status of students while enrolled How many students are employed during the school year? How much do they earn? In what industries are they employed? How does workforce participation relate to o Course completion and grades? o Postsecondary enrollment? Persistence in enrollment? o Application for and receipt of financial aid? W HAT QUESTIONS ? 7

8. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 What is the effect of the current recession on employment patterns during and after enrollment? How long does is take for a graduate to find stable employment? What is the return on investment for various postsecondary programs? What college majors and training programs are associated with the highest earnings five years after graduation? Q UESTIONS THE E CONOMISTS M IGHT A SK 8

9. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 From single-state UI wage data, we do not know: Employment outside the state Occupation Distribution of wages within a quarter Different jobs for a single employer Specific employee locations for multi-site employers Employment not covered by UI program BLS publishes industry-specific occupational employment estimates W HAT C AN ’ T B E A NSWERED 9 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates, May 2011. www.bls.gov/oes/2011/may/oessrci.htm

10. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 W ORKFORCE D ATA S OURCES 10

11. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 About the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Program A federal-state program financed by payroll taxes paid by employers (and in a few states by employee) U.S. Department of Labor sets broad criteria for eligibility and coverage. States determine specifics. Nearly all employers who pay wages to employees participate by o Registering with the state o Submitting quarterly reports o Paying UI taxes or reimbursing for benefits paid T HE U NEMPLOYMENT I NSURANCE P ROGRAM 11

12. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Bottom line: Approximately 97% of the employees on nonfarm payrolls nationally are included in these files. A small percentage of workers are not covered by the state UI program, including: –Small farm operators –Some employees performing domestic services with total wages less than $1,000 in all quarters –Non-profit preschool staff, if fewer than four staff; church employees –Business owners, sole proprietors, self-employed workers –Federal employees (civilian and military), U.S. Postal Service employees, railroad employees –Work-study students, as long as the employer is a non-profit, state government or local government –Licensed insurance agents, real estate agents, brokers, and investment company agents W HO IS COVERED BY THE UI PROGRAM ? 12

13. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Wage Data Year and quarter of earnings Employer account number Employee identifier (usually SSN) Wages paid (earnings) Hours worked (in some states) Name W HAT ’ S IN A UI QUARTERLY RECORD ? 13

14. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Employer Characteristics North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code – a hierarchical coding scheme Ownership (Federal, State, Local, International, Private) Number of employees Geographic location within state W HAT ’ S IN A UI QUARTERLY RECORD ? 14

15. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 North American Industry Classification System Hierarchical, up to 6 levels The over 20 different 2-digit codes are sometimes combined into “supersectors” NAICS ( PRONOUNCED “NAKES”) 15 22 Utilities 221 Utilities 2211 Electric Power Generation, Transmission & Distribution 22111 Electric Power Generation 221113 Nuclear Electric Power Generation “Introduction to NAICS,” U.S. Census Bureau. www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Supersectors: www.bls.gov/ces/cessuper.htm

16. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 W HAT ’ S IN A UI W AGE R ECORD 16 2013112345678078051120SimpsonHomer52005202211131245001400 2013212345678078051120SimpsonHomer52005202211131245001400 2013312345678078051120SimpsonHomer52005202211131245001400 2013412345678078051120SimpsonHomer52005202211131245001400 2013112345678078002346SimpsonBart20802602211131245001400 2013212345678078002346SimpsonBart20802602211131245001400 2013312345678078002346SimpsonBart20802602211131245001400 2013412345678078002346SimpsonBart20802602211131245001400 YearQuarterEmployer AccountSSNNameHoursWagesIndustryEmployeesOwnershipLocation UI Wage RecordEmployer Characteristics Note: These examples are presented for illustrative purposes and do not represent actual UI wage data.

17. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 W HEN DOES WAGE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE ? 17

18. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 O THER SOURCES OF UI WAGE DATA 18  Federal Employment Data Exchange System (FEDES) – contains federal civilian employees, U.S. Postal Service employees, and Department of Defense active duty personnel. Operated by the Jacob France Institute at the University of Baltimore. www.ubalt.edu/jfi/fedeswww.ubalt.edu/jfi/fedes  Wage Record Interchange System (WRIS/WRIS2) – a multistate collaborative that facilitates the exchange of wage data among participating states. www.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS.cfm and www.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS2.cfmwww.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS.cfm www.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS2.cfm  Local Employment Dynamics (LED) program – a partnership between states and the U.S. Census Bureau that provides summary information on employment and earnings at local level. lehd.did.census.gov/led/led/led.html lehd.did.census.gov/led/led/led.html

19. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Workers becoming unemployed are eligible for UI benefits if: The individual worked 680 hours of covered employment in a base year The unemployment is due to circumstances beyond the control of the worker, such as lack of work or business closure Individual is physically able to work, available to work, and actively seeking work UI CLAIMANT DATA 19

20. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 P-20W questions How are spells of unemployment related to industry of employment (and college major field of study)? How does the pattern of unemployment insurance claims (duration and number of spells) vary for the cohort of secondary career-technical education graduates entering the workforce immediately after high school graduation? UI CLAIMANT DATA 20

21. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 H OW TO GET W ORKFORCE D ATA 21

22. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Identify the workforce data custodian in your state Get acquainted with your state’s labor market information (LMI) office o In many cases the state LMI shop is in the same agency as the state Unemployment Insurance program o LMI staff should have familiarity with the data and the processes necessary to move to the next step o Check the directory on the website lmiontheweb.org/ to find your state’s LMI directorlmiontheweb.org/ Discuss your needs with LMI specialists G ET TO KNOW YOUR STATE LMI SHOP 22

23. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Goals of P-20W Data Governance Protect student and employer privacy consistent with applicable laws o Both FERPA* and U.S. Department of Labor** regulations are in play Promote responsible data use o ERDC distributes link to PTAC Technical Brief #3***: Statistical Methods for Protecting Personally Identifiable Information in Aggregate Reporting G ET FAMILIAR WITH PRIVACY ISSUES 23 *FERPA reference: www2.ed.gov/ptacwww2.ed.gov/ptac **US DOL reference: Electronic code of Federal Regulations, Part 603Electronic code of Federal Regulations, Part 603 ***PTAC Technical Brief link: nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2011603nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2011603

24. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Establish a data-sharing agreement Be prepared to provide or discuss o Any legislation that authorizes you to access this data o The role of UI wage data in the proposed research o Data items needed to conduct the research Additional components include o Limitations on access and use and re-disclosure o Physical safeguards, data transfer protocol Notice of Non-disclosure to be signed by all with access to UI data E STABLISH DATA - SHARING PROTOCOLS 24

25. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 U SING THE D ATA 25

26. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 SSN is the nearly universal linking field between education and workforce data Can come from a variety of sources within a centralized P-20W data system Can be used with name fields to confirm link Use auxiliary data sources to establish or confirm link o Within-sector name change information o Driver license records (may contain SSN) o Marriage-divorce and court records for name change SSN – T HE KEY LINKING IDENTIFIER 26

27. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 SSN data quality varies by P-20 sector. Parent SSN sometimes entered in K-12 student records. Work history should not start before student reaches working age. In our experience, SSNs from higher ed sector are usually valid. Should be only one SSN per employer account per quarter Name fields can be used to eliminate records with data entry errors in SSN The more tools applied, the cleaner the data. C LEANSING THE DATA 27

28. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Important when using data spanning more than one quarter Consumer Price Index o Day-to-day living expenses for urban consumers based on fixed “market basket” of goods and services Implicit Price Deflator for Personal Consumption o Assumes that the consumer has made allowances for changes in relative prices The index is the ratio of the cost in a particular time period to the base cost. A DJUSTING FOR INFLATION 28

29. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 P UTTING IT ALL T OGETHER : P-20 E XAMPLES 29

30. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Indicator 5S1 – Secondary Placement Denominator (the cohort): Number of CTE concentrators who left secondary education during the reporting year Numerator: Number in the cohort who were “placed” in postsecondary education or training, or in employment in a specific post-exit quarter Washington uses P-20W data (Washington public postsecondary enrollment, National Student Clearinghouse, and UI wage data) to develop this indicator C AREER -T ECHNICAL E DUCATION F OLLOW - UP 30

31. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 W ORKFORCE P ARTICIPATION, H.S. G RADS 31 Count Percent of total Total regular high school graduates, Spring-Summer 200961,685 Total evaluated for workforce participation (73% of grads)45,077100% Total with earnings in Washington34,07176% Total with earnings during last 2 years of HS*28,15962% Earnings during school year25,63857% Earnings during summer 2008 only2,5216% Earnings post-high school*25,50557% *These two categories are not mutually exclusive, so totals add to more than 100%. Workforce Participation, Washington State High School Graduates, 2008-09, April 2011. www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/201102.pdf

32. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 E MPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP 32 Washington High School Graduates, Spring-Summer 2009, with earnings in last two years of high school Industry SupersectorTotal During school year Summer only Natural resources and mining3%2%11% Construction2% 5% Manufacturing2% 3% Trade, transportation, and utilities (includes retail)29%30%17% Information2% Financial activities2% Professional and business services4% 6% Education and health services10% 12% Leisure and hospitality (includes restaurants)38%39%30% Other services and public administration7%6%12%

33. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 A NSWERS LEAD TO MORE QUESTIONS … 33 Median earnings by quarter by post-high school enrollment status Note the difference in earnings between CTC and 4-year students

34. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 H IGHER E D A PPLICATION 34 200620072008200920102011Date of Award 123412341234123412341234 TermYear * Summer 2007 2007-08 * Fall 2007 * Winter 2008 * Spring 2008 * Date of award (calendar quarter) Reference years: 0 1 2 3 Goal: Express workforce outcomes relative to the timing of an event – receipt of degree

35. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Employer Account  Employer Research ID SSN  Student Research ID Industry Code  Reduced to 2- or 3-digit Number of Employees  Size classes Unchanged: Wages, hours, year, quarter Additions include: o Inflation-adjusted wages (plus values of index used) o Imputation details (basis for imputation, imputed hours) o Reference year and quarter (relative to date of award) P REPARATION OF D E -I DENTIFIED D ATA 35

36. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Student ID  Student Research ID Specific CIP codes for major may be aggregated Other characteristics (age, race/ethnicity, geographic origin) may be grouped into broader categories Groupings done in consultation with IR shops and will not necessarily be the same across all institutions Possible additions o Survey results o Enrollment status (Washington public institutions plus National Student Clearinghouse data) by quarter P REPARATION OF S TUDENT C OMPLETIONS D ATA 36

37. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 Wage Detail File – One record for each year-quarter- employer-employee where year-quarter falls within study range Original data (de-identified) as described plus additional elements Wage Summary File – One record for each graduate Annual (by reference year): primary employer, industry of primary employer, number of employers, total wages Student File – De-identified student and degree information T HREE FILES TO R ESEARCHERS ( ALL DE - IDENTIFIED ) 37

38. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 E XAMPLE FROM B ACCALAUREATE F OLLOW - UP 38 “Connecting Unemployment Insurance (UI) Wage and Baccalaureate Data,” presented at Association for Institutional Research Annual Forum, June 5, 2012. www.erdc.wa.gov/presentations/pdf/20120605_air.pdf Analysis of 2005-06 bachelor’s degree recipients from a Washington higher education institution. Inflation-adjusted.

39. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 A DDITIONAL R ESOURCES AND C ONTACTS 39

40. 2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 For more information on education-workforce connections, see: Employment Data Handbook: A Guide for Incorporating Employment Information from a State Unemployment Insurance (UI) Program into a P­20 Longitudinal Data System www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/EmploymentDataHandbook_v1.pdf www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/EmploymentDataHandbook_v1.pdf Contact information: Carol Jenner: carol.jenner@ofm.wa.govcarol.jenner@ofm.wa.gov Tim Norris: tim.norris@ofm.wa.govtim.norris@ofm.wa.gov A DDITIONAL R ESOURCES AND C ONTACTS 40