1. 1 Rodel D. Lasco University of the Philippines INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY IN WATERSHED AREAS AND COMMUNITIES IN SE ASIA (AS21) Rodel D. Lasco University of the Philippines

2. 2 Introduction Philippines: > 70% of the total land area lies within watersheds 421 principal river basins Irrigate > 1.5 M ha of agricultural lands Hydropower major energy source 18-20M people living in uplands Indonesia: most of watersheds in Java are already at critical stage

3. 3 Landuse change in watersheds

4. 4 Project objectives Assess the impacts of climate change to water resources, forest ecosystems, and social systems Conduct integrated vulnerability assessment of natural and social systems Develop adaptation strategies Promote stakeholder participation Contribute to peer reviewed literature Help build capacity of local scientists

5. 5 Research Team Philippines: University of the Philippines at Los Baños (UPLB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) Prof. Dr. Rodel D. Lasco Prof. Dr. Rex Victor O. Cruz Dr. Juan M. Pulhin DENR representative Indonesia: Institute Pertanian Bogor Dr. Rizaldi Boer Dr. Ekawati S. Wahyuni Ir

6. 6 Key Partners Dr. Meine van Noordwijk International Center for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF), Bogor, Indonesia Dr. Josep Canadell GCTE, Australia Scientists from Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia National government agencies, NGOs and people’s organizations

7. 7 Methods study will focus on a watershed each in the Philippines (Pantabangan watershed) and Indonesia (Tulang Bawang Watershed). Stakeholders will be involved at various steps of the research process

8. 8 The Pantabangan Watershed

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19. 19 Research Framework Climate change scenario Biophysical factors THE WATERSHED SYSTEM Forest/carbon budget Water Budget Land use and land cover change Socio-economic political factors Local communities

20. 20 Climate scenario: MAGICC-SCENGEN

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22. 22 Table 1. Precipitation anomalies of DJF and JJA in 2080 using SRESA2 and SRESB2 scenarios for nine General Circulation Models in one part of Citarum Watershed Sce nari o Mont hs CG CM2 CSIR O-mk2 CS M- 1.3 ECHa m4 GFD L- R15bMRI2 CCS R/NIE S2 DOE -PCM Had CM3 A2DJF - 9.165.09 - 0.23-7.3 52.2 1 10.6 9 10.6 22.183.65 A2JJA - 8.2812.54 - 12.6 3 - 44.92 - 23.835.61-5.08 10.0 4 - 27.38 B2DJF - 6.52-2.82 - 7.564.02 - 2.057.44-0.25-2.8 10.7 2 B2JJA - 15.7 212.68 - 10.0 1 - 13.82 - 41.687.85 - 15.74 19.0 5 - 14.51 Source: Provided by Xian Fu (2002).

23. 23 Land Use/Cover Change: The CLUE Model (Verlag, 2002)

24. 24 Forest ecosystems: carbon

25. 25 The CO2-Fix Model

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27. 27 Water Resources: OVER-ALL VIC Model (Link with AS07 Snidvongs et al.) Liang et al. (1994)

28. 28 River Network in Dynamic Routing Model Lohmann et al. (1996)

29. 29 DATA For Model Data for VIC Model  Forcing Data  Precipitation  Maximum Temperature  Minimum Temperature  Wind speed  Template Data  Soil property  Land cover  Elevation Data for Routing Model  Elevation  Stream Network  Discharge Data

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31. 31 Human dimension Impacts and adaptation of local communities Primary and secondary data Field reconnaissance and establishment of rapport Participatory vulnerability and adaptation assessment Present vulnerability and adaptation of local communities to climate variability and extremes

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33. 33 Human dimension (cont) combination of participatory techniques such as stakeholder analysis, time line and community mapping These techniques will be complemented by interviews of households future impacts of climate change will be assessed based on the local people’s experiences and responses to past climate variability and extremes

34. 34 Capacity Building The training/workshop on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability November 25 to December 8, 2002 6 participants from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam Small research grants provided

35. 35 Discussion with agriculture extension workers and farmers at Bandung District, Indonesia STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT

36. 36 NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan, Philippines

37. 37 DENR Briefing, Philippines

38. 38 CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines

39. 39 Thank you!