1. A Nexus Approach for Sustainable Intensification Holger Hoff, Huiyi Chen, Guoyi Han Stockholm Environment Institute Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research CEWP Nexus Workshop WWW 3 September 2013

2. Outline: What is the nexus? Why do we need a nexus approach? How to implement it? Where to implement it – examples The Ningxia case

3. What is the nexus? previous examples of integrated approaches -ecosystem approaches (CBD) -integrated water resources management (GWP) -integrated pest management -multi-functional systems (IAASTD), e.g. crop-livestock systems -ecological sanitation The nexus refers to integrated or systemic approaches across sectors: generating co-benefits and increasing productivities across resources, mobilizing untapped potentials, e.g. via recycling, cascading use of resources, improved land configurations etc. BUT: these approaches have been sectoral, lessons have not been learned, upscaling and transfer is missing

4. Why do we need a nexus approach? a resource constrained and environmentally limited world: growing demand for biomass (food, feed, fibres, fuel….) & natural resources ecosystem degradation & climate change add pressure risk of transgressing critical thresholds, across scales from local sustainability boundaries to planetary boundaries sustainable intensification (not another „green revolution“) for economic development today, without compromising future food, water, and energy security, diversity and resilience -> do the Chinese Red Lines also pose critical thresholds?

5. How to implement a nexus approach? start from nexus assessments: resource availabilities & productivities today & future toolbox e.g. WEAP (water), LEAP (energy), AEZ (land) entry points for mainstreaming nexus principles into new (water, agricultural, energy, climate and other) strategies and plans nexus solutions, reducing losses & increasing synergies, win-wins e.g. ecosystems as natural infrastructure, conservation agriculture economic incentives for reducing negative externalities across resources, sectors and regions, e.g. payments for environmental services partnerships between sectors, strengthen bridging institutions

6. Where to implement a nexus approach? example upper Blue Nile: entry points: Ethiopia‘s Growth and Transformation Plan, Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy improved landscapes for local and export production for food and biofuel, higher productivity, income, local food and energy security (e.g. bioethanol for cooking) foreign direct investments for improved agricultural productivity reconciling downstream water demands and upstream land (and water) development

7. Where to implement a nexus approach? example MENA region: integrating climate adaptation and mitigation soil and water conservation for improved green water productivity and climate resilience renewable energy for seawater desalination guiding foreign direct investments (in Africa) for win-wins

8. Where to implement a nexus approach? example Mauritius sugarcane for ethanol / bioenergy production Howells et al. 2013

9. example Ningxia Where to implement a nexus approach? rapidly increasing demand for food, energy etc. natural resources, e.g. water, and ecosystems and their services are limited climate change may add pressure

10. A nexus approach in Ningxia forest irrigation grassland steppe forest/meadows

11. A nexus approach in Ningxia What does the red line on water quantity (total withdrawal) indicate? A sustainability boundary?

12. similar story for China as a whole What does the red line on water quantity (total withdrawal) indicate? A sustainability boundary? Liu et al. 2013

13. A nexus approach in Ningxia How has that red line been defined? From projected food demands and water availability? need for increasing water productivity, projected to accelerate according to red line irrigation efficiency coefficient

14. similar story for China as a whole Liu et al. 2013 How has that red line been defined? From projected food demands and water availability? need for increasing water productivity, projected to continue according to red line

15. A nexus approach in Ningxia assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning? how much land is required for biofuels? how much more land is required for meeting the irrigation target ? how much land is converted to forest (afforestation)?

16. A nexus approach in Ningxia assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning? how does this increase in land demand affect other ecosystems, e.g. grasslands, and their ecosystem goods & services (e.g. livestock, carbon, biodiversity)?

17. A nexus approach in Ningxia assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning? does the water red line account for aquatic ecosystems / environmental flows? is it consistent with the objectives of the grain-to-green program, anti-desertification programs and other land use changes? how do these cumulatively affect water, land and other resource productivities, carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services? how is the red line for land (see previous slide) defined? is there any sustainability boundary for land?

18. A nexus approach in Ningxia 16 large-scale coal power bases planned, predominantly in western areas of China assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning? is this development consistent with the coal cap?

19. A nexus approach in Ningxia coal mining0,153 coal fired power generation0,189 chemical production from coal0,044 Total0,386 provincial industrial water withdrawal in 2010 0,41 additional water demand from Ningdong coal base (on top of additional irrigation water demands) by 2015 in billion m 3 : Greenpeace assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning? 16 large-scale coal power bases planned, predominantly in western areas of China

20. A nexus approach in Ningxia how much more energy will the agricultural intensification require (e.g. pumping of water, fertilizer, machine use? year20042005200620072008200920102011 hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic (10000tons of SCE) 33,4463,6268,7464,9776,3677,8298,25111,32 -> need for integrated planning according to resources availabilities and productivities assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning? what about the hydropower target and additional bioenergy production (e.g. in response to the coal cap / energy red line), and their water and land requirements – are they accounted for in the red lines for water and land?

21. A nexus approach in Ningxia e.g. do regional red lines from Ningxia and other regions add up to the national red line? export production is not always taking place in the most resource productive regions: The upper Yellow River is a net export to RoC (rest of China) while having lower water productivity than RoC How does Ningxia contribute to th national strategies and goals? Feng et al 2012

22. A nexus approach in Ningxia The nexus approach can become a catalyst for cooperation across sectors Water Food Energy Water Ministry of Water Resources Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Environmental Protection Ministry of Land and Resources State Forest Administration Nexus approaches needs concerted efforts, because of they’re knowledge intensive and require innovations State Forest Administration National River Commisions WRB