1. IMPROVING RISK COMMUNICATION BETTY HEARN MORROW MAY 19, 2010 MARRIOTT CITY CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH SOCIAL APPLICATIONS FOR ENHANCED READINESS (SAFER) PROGRAM – WESTERN REGION CONFERENCE

2. What makes people decide to respond to a warning message? Believe it is real Believe it is real Fear for personal safety Fear for personal safety Fear for safety of loved ones Fear for safety of loved ones Knowledge about how to respond Knowledge about how to respond Resources to respond Resources to respond 05/19/10 2 LEVEL OF RISK IS UNACCEPTABLE AND THEY CAN DO SOMETHING TO REDUCE IT

3. What makes people not respond to a warning message? Didn’t hear it Didn’t hear it Didn’t believe it Didn’t believe it Didn’t understand it Didn’t understand it Didn’t think it pertained to them Didn’t think it pertained to them Didn’t know what to do Didn’t know what to do Weren’t able to do it Weren’t able to do it 05/19/10 3

4. 4 238 Deaths

5. Did they understand the forecast? 05/19/10 5 COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

6. Why? Surge forecast not emphasized enough? Surge forecast not emphasized enough? Too much emphasis on wind? Too much emphasis on wind? Lack of understanding of surge potential? Lack of understanding of surge potential? Disbelief? Disbelief? Lack of experience? Lack of experience? False experience? False experience? Didn’t think it applied to them? Didn’t think it applied to them? ? 05/19/10 6

7. Katrina Surge Message Lost

8. How can the level of risk be communicated to promote appropriate action? 05/19/10 8 Prepare? Shelter in Place? Evacuate?

9. NOAA Coastal Services Center RISK COMMUNICATION PROJECT Literature Review Literature Review Best Practices Interviews Best Practices Interviews 05/19/10 9

10. Complex concept Complex concept difficult to communicate in ways that are convincing and lead to good decisions and lead to good decisions 05/19/10 10 RISK: Hurricane Ike and Galveston Hurricane Floyd

11. Concept of Risk: Social Construction Arises out of social interactions involving: Values Values Emotions Emotions Experiences Experiences 05/19/10 11

12. Knowledge is important, but we weigh evidence from experience more from experience more 05/19/10 12 Perceived Risk ≠ Hazard x Exposure x Probability Hazard x Exposure x Probability

13. Fear often does not reflect object reality as defined by experts 05/19/10 13 “the risks that kill you are not necessarily the risks that anger and frighten you” Peter Sandman Peter Sandman Risk = Hazards + Outrage

14. Perception is everything! Perceived risk is the same as real risk 05/19/10 14

15. Several theories attempt to explain how risk perceptions are developed: Psychometric Models Psychometric Models Cultural Risk Theory Cultural Risk Theory Social Amplification Social Amplification Mental Models Mental Models 05/19/10 15

16. Coping with a Complex World… Try to Find Patterns “What do I know that will help me understand this?” 05/19/10 16

17. Coping with a Complex World… 05/19/10 17 Note: Even forecasters use heuristics - Doswell III, Charles A. (2004) Weather Forecasting by Humans – Heuristics and Decision Making. Weather and Forecasting 19:1115-1126 Use Heuristics (short cuts) such as: Optimism Bias “Won’t happen to me” Availability “Hasn’t happened to me” “Hasn’t happened to me”

18. Weighing the chances… Decisions made about risk are largely insensitive to changes in probability 05/19/10 18 Emotions play a major role Emotions play a major role

19. What Are the Myths? What incorrect messages are out there? What incorrect messages are out there? 05/19/10 19 Keep a window open during hurricanes, tornadoes.. Highway underpasses offer good refuge from tornadoes Tornadoes don’t cross rivers Lightning never strikes the same place twice Others? New York doesn’t get hurricanes If the water starts rising, I’ll just leave

20. First Acknowledge Their Current Viewpoint “When talking to people who are misinformed, there’s a two-step process for reeducating them. Step 1 is to validate that it’s reasonable to think that. And then on step 2, take them on a journey from their current opinion to the one you want them to hold.” Peter Sandman 05/19/10 20

21. Just Because It CAN Happen, Doesn’t Mean it WILL … USUALLY a False Alarm Creates Complacency 05/19/10 21 In Fact, It Usually Doesn’t!

22. 05/19/10 22

23. What Message Did That Give? 05/19/10 23

24. What Factors Tend to Make Risk Unacceptable? RARE or Unfamiliar RARE or Unfamiliar EVENT vs. diffused over time EVENT vs. diffused over time IMPOSED vs. voluntary IMPOSED vs. voluntary Not under individual’s control Not under individual’s control 05/19/10 24

25. What Makes Risk Unacceptable? Unfairly distributed Unfairly distributed Affects children Affects children Man-made hazard vs. natural hazard Man-made hazard vs. natural hazard 05/19/10 25

26. RISK COMMUNICATION MODEL ABILITY TO UNDERSTAND CAPACITY TO ACT ABILITY TO UNDERSTAND CAPACITY TO ACT INVOLVEMENT DESIRE FOR INVOLVEMENT DESIRE FOR OR INTEREST INFORMATION OR INTEREST INFORMATION RELEVANCE TO STAKEHOLDER INTENTION TO ACT RELEVANCE TO STAKEHOLDER INTENTION TO ACT 05/19/10 26 MESSAGE EVALUATION FACTORS MESSAGE EFFECTS MESSAGE EFFECTSFACTORS Adapted from Earle, T.C. and G. Cvetkovich. 1990. “The effects of involvement, relevance and ability on risk communication effectiveness. Pp. 271-89 in Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North Holland: Elsevier Science.

27. Effective risk communication requires in-depth knowledge about the audience Values Values Needs Needs Interests Interests Experiences Experiences Barriers Barriers Social Norms Social Norms 05/19/10 27

28. NEED TO UNDERSTAND CONTEXT Conditions Under Which Decisions Are Made How They Vary Among Groups Weather-Related Risk May Be Least of Their Worries 05/19/10 28 Community Involvement Quantitative surveys Qualitative focus groups Observations

29. 05/19/10 29 Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Tool County Snapshots

30. 05/19/10 30 Coastal Inundation Toolkit CanVis Visualization Software NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource www.csc.noaa.gov/inundation

31. 05/19/10 31 Personalize The Message

32. Many Messages Targeted To Specific Groups “To reach and influence audiences effectively, campaigns must be targeted on the basis of audiences’ interests, values, and current behavioral patterns.” Edward Maibach 05/19/10 32 Homeowners Renters Elderly Families with children Cultural groups Youth

33. Multiple Messages Multiple Channels 05/19/10 33 Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. www.orau.org/university- partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdfwww.orau.org/university- partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf Use of Technologies Survey Charleston, SC (2008) 70% have cell phones 70% have cell phones 67% over age 65 have cell phones 67% over age 65 have cell phones 60% said they would use cell phone to contact family in emergency 60% said they would use cell phone to contact family in emergency 56% under age 29 use texting 56% under age 29 use texting 6% over 65 used texting 6% over 65 used texting

34. Multiple Messages Multiple Channels 05/19/10 34 Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. www.orau.org/university- partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdfwww.orau.org/university- partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf Use of Technologies Survey Charleston, SC (2008) 60% have computers in home (NSD related to age) 60% have computers in home (NSD related to age) 64% whites have computers in home 64% whites have computers in home 52% blacks have computers in home 52% blacks have computers in home 31% with income less than $20,000 know how to use a computer 31% with income less than $20,000 know how to use a computer 23% have NOAA weather radio 23% have NOAA weather radio

35. RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES 05/19/10 35 Level of Outrage High Low High Source: Peter Sandman Outrage Management Crisis Communication Precaution Advocacy Level of Hazard

36. Know your audience Know your audience Personalize the message Personalize the message 05/19/10 36 NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources: Mapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census Data Mapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census Data Introduction to Conducting Focus Groups Introduction to Conducting Focus Groups Introduction to Survey Design & Delivery Introduction to Survey Design & Delivery

37. Appeal to their values, needs, social norms Appeal to their values, needs, social norms Appeal to emotions, including fear Appeal to emotions, including fear Have clear, concise, short message Have clear, concise, short message Use concrete examples Use concrete examples Use trusted messengers Use trusted messengers Provide an action they can do Provide an action they can do 05/19/10 37

38. Some People Are Risk Takers Gamblers Gamblers Thrill Seekers Thrill Seekers Youth Youth Men! Men! 05/19/10 38

39. Morrow, Betty Hearn. 2009. Improving Coastal Risk Communication: Guidance from the Literature. Report prepared for NOAA’s Coastal Service Center, Charleston, SC. Available at: www.csc.noaa.gov/Risk_Behavior_&_Communication_Report.pdf. Other NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources: Mapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census Data Introduction to Conducting Focus Groups Introduction to Survey Design & Delivery Introduction to Stakeholder Participation Stakeholder Engagement Strategies for Participatory Mapping CanVis Visualization Software, NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource. Available at: www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/inundation. McKenzie-Mohr, Doug. Fostering Sustainable Behavior : Community-Based Social Marketing. Available at: www.cbsm.com Earle, T.C. and G. Cvetkovich. 1990. “The Effects Of Involvement, Relevance And Ability On Risk Communication Effectiveness.” Pp. 271-89 in Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North Holland: Elsevier Science. Sandman, Peter. Risk = Hazard + Outrage. www.psandman.com/index.htm Mailbach, Edward C. and Roxanne Louiselle Parrott (eds). 1995. Designing Health Messages: Approaches from Communication Theory and Public Health Practice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Downloadable at: www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf. RISK COMMUNICATION RESOURCES Betty Morrow betty@bmorrow.com