1. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 EU demographics: living more and reproducing less Jitka Rychtaříková Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science Department of Demography and Geodemography Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha 2, Czech Republic tel.: 420 221 951 420 e-mail: rychta@natur.cuni.cz

2. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 José Manuel Barroso: Demographic change is one of the three major forces now remodeling Europe, alongside globalization and technological change.

3. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Reproducing less, living longer, and will age fast

4. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Structure Recent fertility change and current fertility patterns Recent fertility change and current fertility patterns New phenomena: low fertility, postponement, extramarital fertility New phenomena: low fertility, postponement, extramarital fertility Country classification based on current fertility patterns Country classification based on current fertility patterns Mortality change Mortality change Population ageing as the outcome of fertility change Population ageing as the outcome of fertility change Future fertility prospects Future fertility prospects

5. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Shift toward rare and late chilbearing Profound fertility decline has occurred in Northern and Western European societies since the mid 1960s, was over by the end of the 1980s in Southern Europe, and has emerged since the beginning of the 1990s in Eastern Europe. Profound fertility decline has occurred in Northern and Western European societies since the mid 1960s, was over by the end of the 1980s in Southern Europe, and has emerged since the beginning of the 1990s in Eastern Europe. Late fertility starts being a common widely accepted pattern. Late fertility starts being a common widely accepted pattern.

6. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Variations in TFR over time in 30 European countries simple reproduction low fertility lowest low fertility

7. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Two country groups in 2006: just below replacement level and very low fertility

8. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Low fertility trap: two critical tresholds  Low fertility: TFR less than 1,5  Lowest low fertility: TFR less than 1,3  P. McDonald (2005): it is much more difficult for a country to raise fertility when the total fertility rate has fallen below the critical level of 1,5 children per woman.  The situation becomes even more desperate when the lowest low fertility (below 1,3) is reached.

9. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Fertility postponement a part of a postponement transition Longer education Longer education Building a professional career Building a professional career Reliable contraception Reliable contraception ART treatment „solving“ also problems of postponed parenthood ART treatment „solving“ also problems of postponed parenthood Factors behind

10. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Younger age does not more mean a higher fertility

11. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Late parenthood (motherhood): Late parenthood (motherhood): miscellaneous impact on fertility levels North and West of Europe: a higher age at the first childbearing does not imply low fertility levels. East and South of Europe show a „negative correlation“ between an increasing age of mothers and final low fertility levels, thus confirming a classical theory as regards the relationship between age at first childbirth and final fertility rate.

12. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 2006: Cumulative age-specific fertility rates; (country order according to TFR)

13. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Another new phenomenon Increase in extra-marital births Increase in extra-marital births Accelerating in last decades Accelerating in last decades Reflecting cultural settings Reflecting cultural settings

14. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Extra-marital births per 100 births: uneven increase over time

15. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Variations in share of extramarital births over time in 30 European countries

16. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 An increase of extra-marital births does not mean a rising cohabitation as an alternative to family legalized by marriage but more often means a lone motherhood Countries with low nonmarital fertility ratios (Italy, Spain, Belgium) tend to have also low overall childhood exposure to single parenting. Parental cohabitation accounts for much nonmarital fertility in Northern Europe. P.Heuveline, J.T. Timberlake, F.F.Furstenberg: Shifting childrearing to single mothers: Results from 17 Western countries, Population and Development Review, 29, 2003, 1

17. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 A country classification according to current levels of TFR, mean age at first chilbearing, and the percentage of extramarital births. Three country groups and one outlier can be delimited. Three most imortant recent changes: fertility decline, increase in mean age at first childbirth, increase in the share of extra-marital births

18. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008

19. Cluster characteristics show puzzled fertility patterns 1.Group shows the lowest low fertility level, the youngest age at first childbearing, and medium frequency of extramarital births. 1.Group (Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) shows the lowest low fertility level, the youngest age at first childbearing, and medium frequency of extramarital births. 2.Group low fertility, the oldest age at first childbearing, and low proportion of extramarital births. 2.Group (Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, Switzerland) displays low fertility, the oldest age at first childbearing, and low proportion of extramarital births. 3.Group the highest fertility, high age at first childbirth, and a high share of nonmarital births. 3.Group (Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom), experiences the highest fertility, high age at first childbirth, and a high share of nonmarital births. Might this group represent forerunners of a suitable/sustainable fertility? Traditional demographic correlations are violated: young age and low frequency of extra-marital births do no more correlate with high fertility levels!

20. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Cohort fertility of women born in 1980: Possible future prospects? Fertility rates for older ages estimated by using the rates observed for previous generations

21. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Mortality change and its impact Decrease at older age in all countries Decrease at older age in all countries Population 65+: pension system Population 65+: pension system Population 80+: health care system Population 80+: health care system

22. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Survival in EU27+(2): 2005

23. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Fertility is the key factor as regards the future population ageing Proportion of population aged 65 and over in 2050 is correlated with (based on EU27 countries) : Total fertility rate (2005)-0,591** Population 65+ (2005) 0,454* Male life expectancy at 65 (2004)-0,004 Female life expectancy at 65 (2004)-0,043 ** Correlation is significant at the 0,01 level (2- tailed) * Correlation is significant at the 0,05 level (2-tailed)

24. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Very low fertility levels if maintained will lead to rapid population loss and an extreme form of population ageing in individual countries. Between 2005 and 2050 the percentage of people aged 65+ will increase from 11,6% (Slovakia) to 33,5% (Bulgaria) in the new member states, while in the original EU15 it will increase from 11,2% (Ireland) to 35,6% (Spain). The fastest growing age group will be that of oldest-old, people aged 80 and more; while the proportion of 65+ will double, that of 80+ will triple. The highest figures of 80+ are expected in Italy, Germany, and Spain; the new member states with shorter life expectancies at the age of 80 are lagging behind in this trend.

25. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 The percentage of persons aged 65 and older is expected to almost double by 2050 in the EU27. Top six in 2005 Italy19,2 Germany18,6 Greece17,8 Sweden17,2 Belgium17,1 Bulgaria17,1 Top six in 2050 Spain35,6 Italy35,3 Bulgaria33,5 Greece32,5 Portugal31,9 Germany31,6

26. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Southern and Central Europe will experience the highest number of older persons (65+) per 100 working age persons (15-64)

27. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Old age dependency ratio: the number of persons aged 65+ per 100 of persons at 15-64 Currently (2005): 16,3 (Slovakia) and 29,3 (Italy) In the future (2050): 36,1 (Luxembourg) and 67,5 (Spain)

28. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Between 2005 and 2050, the largest declines in population size are expected to occur in the new member states of EU27 Percentage increase or decrease of total population between 2005 and 2050

29. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 EU Old and New Members: keep being divided The most substantial percentage decrease will be experienced by the populations  in the fresh newcomers (Bulgaria, Romania),  then Baltic States (Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania),  followed by Central Europe (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary)

30. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Can fertility be enhanced ? The role of family policy The role of family policy The role of ART The role of ART

31. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Two scenarios for the future numbers of children conceived with ART

32. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Proposal I Building a society for all ages Building a society for all ages Enabling to have family at any age Enabling to have family at any age Reconciliation of work/education and family Reconciliation of work/education and family Freedom of choice Freedom of choice One standard life pattern should be avoided education-career-children

33. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Proposal II Access to ART treatment for people in need and at any age Access to ART treatment for people in need and at any age Giving priority to policies slowing fertility ageing Giving priority to policies slowing fertility ageing

34. 9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008 Thank you