1. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds understanding population trends and processes ESRC RES-163-25-0012 for 2005-07 @ 40%

2. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Background There is a need for population counts by age, sex & other characteristics by geographic area: Monitoring social trends in which populations provide denominators; Investment of resources & statistical backing for funding bids; Assessment of demand for housing, schooling, employment, pensions + goods & services;

3. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Background Change in population composition: ageing, births, deaths & migration Change in aggregate characteristics: attribute change of non-migrants & balance of migrant characteristics Need To understand how population changed in the past Consistent, relevant information over time To respond to current situations

4. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Aim Quantify, map & analyse changes in population size and social characteristics occurring in UK’s small geographical areas between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses Population change Which demographic components account for change? Balance between natural change & migration change Is the population ageing evenly across space? Area characteristics change Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time? Health change Relationship to changes in deprivation & population

5. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Introduction Technical challenges Area typologies Results Demographic change Deprivation change Health change Small areas 7,958 wards in England, 881 wards in Wales 1,010 postal sectors in Scotland, 582 wards in Northern Ireland

6. Technical challenges: consistency across UK & over time 1991 & 2001 mid-year small area populations not comparable: Boundary changes Differences in 1991 & 2001 Census population definition To estimate a 1991 base population: Adjust populations to mid-year & a consistent geography Allow for changed view of 1991 Census undercount To calculate area deprivation: Create consistent variables by geography & definition Ensure 1991 & 2001 measures are comparable

7. 1991 & 2001 population resources Populations, 1991 & 2001 Sex and age disaggregated small area mid-year populations for 1991 & 2001 Vital Statistics, 1990 to 2002 Births & deaths counts for small areas Area characteristics, 1991 & 2001 Comparable deprivation indicators Categorisation of urban, suburban and rural areas based on persons per hectare N.B. These measures are comparable over time & across UK, unlike official schemes which are invariably time point, application & country specific

8. OPCS classification: districts London Metropolitan Cities Non-Metropolitan Cities Industrial Districts Districts with New Towns Resort, Port & Retirement Accessible & Remoter Urban Accessible & Remoter Rural Deprivation: wards Categorised into quintiles Stratifying results by GOR &

9. 1991-2001 population change Population change Natural change Net migration

10. 1991-2001 population change England

11. 1991-2001 population change WalesScotland Northern Ireland

12. 1991-2001 population change Change cf. natural change Change cf. net migration 1991 & 2001 Populations

13. 1991-2001 components of change England

14. 1991-2001 components of change WalesScotland Northern Ireland

15. Average age 1991 1991-2001 age % Elderly in 1991

16. 1991-2001 ageing Counts %s England

17. 1991-2001 ageing Wales Scotland Northern Ireland

18. Deprivation change Townsend Index: comparable across UK & time Input variables for: c. 10,400 small areas in both 1991 and 2001 Relative to 1991 & 2001 average National rates UnemploymentNo car Non-home owners Overcrowding 19918.7328.4131.252.04 20013.1322.9728.901.53 1991 & 2001 5.9325.6930.081.78

19. Deprivation change Townsend Index: comparable across UK & time

20. Deprivation change Townsend scores: easing overall How does health relate to deprivation change and to population change? England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland 1991 2001

21. Deprivation & mortality England

22. Deprivation & mortality WalesScotland Northern Ireland

23. Deprivation change & mortality SMRs 2001

24. Deprivation change & mortality SMRs 2001 UK

25. Population change & mortality SMRs 2001 UK

26. Migration change & mortality SMRs 2001 UK

27. Summary Population change 1991-2001: England In London, population gain in more deprived areas, due to natural change gain Metropolitan areas losing population, due to net migration loss Less deprived areas elsewhere growing, the least deprived areas a mix of natural and net migration gain, other areas a mix of components Across UK, differences in detail but similar patterns Biggest component of change is net migration

28. Ageing 1991-2001 In more urban areas biggest numbers of elderly in more urban areas. Elsewhere, biggest numbers in least deprived % elderly increases with decreasing deprivation % elderly increases most in Scotland. Northern Ireland has a relatively young population Deprivation change 1991-2001 Relative deprivation eased during the decade Mortality relates more strongly to deprivation than to larger area type with mortality improving over the decade Generally, areas have better health when becoming less deprived, with growing populations & net migration gain