1. Bringing stand level fire risk to the landscape level: Fire risk assessment using FFE-FVS with the Landscape Management System. Kevin Ceder And James McCarter Western Mensurationists Meeting 22 June 2004

2. Overview Landscape organization –Stands and larger scale considerations Overview of the Landscape Management System Examples of fire risk analysis using LMS with FFE-FVS and LMS-FFE Add On

3. Stands: The typical analysis unit A unit to create a unique area with relatively uniform characteristics –Vegetation type –Disturbance history Data collected at a stand level Tools developed to use stand level data –Growth models –Fire behavior and effects models

4. Landscape: Ecological and Ownership Level An assemblage of stands Planning and management on ownerships occur at a multi-stand or landscape scale Wildlife often ignore stand boundaries and will use a multi-stand area Disturbances can operate at a multi-stand level –Wind: ’21 Blow on Olympic Peninsula –Fire: Biscuit fire

5. Fires can work at landscape level

6. Scaling from Stand to Landscape Need to assess at larger than stand scale, but we know the most about inventory at the stand level The Landscape Management System (LMS) brings together stand level growth models and stand level tree lists and aggregates them into a landscape for growth, treatment, and analysis with a user-friendly interface.

7. The Landscape Management System A platform that bring together numerous programs –Growth models –Stand and landscape visualization –Stand treatment programs –Analysis tables

8. LMS Components LMS Interface Analysis Tables Over 50 analysis tables Visualization SVS EnVision Treatment and Disturbance Simulation LMS Portfolio: Data Files Tree List Inventories Site and Topographic data Spatial Data (optional) Growth Simulation FVS ORGANON Other Models

9. LMS Data Requirements Stand level information –Site quality variables, age, area Tree inventory information –“tree list” (individual tree data with expansion factors), Need Species, Diameter, and TPA, better to also have Height and Crown ratio Spatial information (for landscape analysis and visualization) –Need elevation model (USGS DEM, SDTS, ESRI ASCII Grid – converted to PC-Plans DTM format), map of stand boundaries (ERSI shapefile or MOSS file), can add other spatial features (roads, streams, trails, etc)

10. Alternative Strategies for Design, Layout, and Administration of Fuel Removal Projects

11. Fremont National Forest 502 plots 928,499 forested acres Okanogan National Forest 413 plots 763,885 forested acres

12. Thinning prescriptions 1)Remove 9” and below 2)Remove 50% Basal Area (BA) from below 3)Leave 45 ft 2 /acre BA from below 4)Remove 12” and greater 5)Wildfire Simulation 6)No Action

13. Forest Condition 2000 20102035 Below 50% BA Below 45 ft^2 BA Below 9”

14. Forest Condition 2000 20102035 Above 12” Wildfire No action

16. Risk reduction performance of Half BA and BA 45 treatments may result from the addition of 10-12” DBH trees to what otherwise is the 9”& Under treatment. Stands where 9”&Under is effective can be identified. Simulations with regeneration demonstrate the need for future controlled burns or thinnings. Okanogan high risk with regen

17. LMS-FFE Add On: Linking fire tools into LMS All variants of the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) for the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model The LMS-FFE Configuration Tool LMS tables linked to FFE-FVS outputs The Fire Scoping Tool –The Fire Scoping Report spreadsheet –Risk Mapper ESRI ArcView project file The LMS-FFE Add-on is not installed with the main LMS install and must be installed separately after downloading from the LMS website: http://lms.cfr.washington.edu/ or from the LMS CD. http://lms.cfr.washington.edu/

18. Enabling FFE-FVS in LMS

19. LMS - Fire Scoping Interface Used to View FFE Variable Distributions Select potential fire weather conditions Select risk classification variable and thresholds Create graphical and tabular or map output

20. Example of Using LMS with FFE ColvilleExam portfolio –Section of South Deep watershed on Colville NF –Portfolio is installed with LMS Treat all stands removing all trees <9” DBH in 2005 Simulate prescribed fire in 2010 Examine fire risk and risk change with Fire Scoping Tool –Risk Scoping Report –Risk Mapper

21. Location of Colville Exam NE Washington 4344 ac 125 stands 3039 – 4789 feet Mixed conifer QMD 1 – 9” 55 stands with SDI >=350

22. Steps Set up simulations –Scenario file for LMS –Set prescribed fire year and conditions Run simulations Initial conditions and risk classification variable examination Select risk variable and limits Fire scoping to assess risk

23. Risk Classification: Which Variable? Fire Scoping Tool allows use of 5 FFE output variables –Crowning Index –Torching Index –Fire Type –Flame Length –% BA Mortality Limits for risk class can be set for local conditions FFE Variable Distribution report lets user examine distributions to choose appropriate variable and class limits

24. Choosing Risk Classification: FFE Variable Distributions

25. Initial Risk Conditions Crowning Index: High: <25 Moderate: 25 - 50 Low: >50 BA Mortality: High: >50% Moderate: 15 – 50% Low: <15%

26. Initial Risk Conditions Set variable and limits in Fire Scoping Tool Run Scoping with output to Spreadsheet Fire Risk graphs and tables created in Fire Scoping spreadsheet

27. Fire Risk Graphs and Tables Fire conditions Fire risk distributions Stand attribute distributions segmented by risk class: –Elevation –QMD –TPA –BA –SDI –Dominant species –Stand structure FFE variable distributions segmented by risk class –Crowning index –Torching index –% BA mortality –Flame length –Fire type –Canopy fuel base height –Canopy bulk density

28. Fire Risk Graphs

29. Did the Risk Change?

30. Why Did the Risk Change

31. Moved to Low risk: Pre-treatment: CI=20 Post-treatment: CI=75 Still High Risk: Pre-treatment: CI=18 Post-treatment: CI=21

32. Where is the risk? Risk Mapping Custom ESRI ArcView project designed to make maps from data from LMS Python programs classify FFE output data and creates input file for mapping

33. Risk Mapping Avenue ScriptArcView Map FFE OutputPython Program ESRI ArcView GIS Landscape Management System

35. Conclusions… LMS brings stand level data and tools together in a landscape context Stand level fire risk models are available and becoming more mature and usable Integration of tools provide enhanced analytical capability Stand level fire risk models don’t provide link between stands (contagion) Landscape level fire risk models also available, but need to be easier to use and access information Easy to use interfaces required for use and adoption of tools