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Financial Executives Institute Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Canadian Environmental Policy This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual.

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Presentation on theme: "Financial Executives Institute Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Canadian Environmental Policy This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual."— Presentation transcript:

1 Financial Executives Institute Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Canadian Environmental Policy This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. P. A. Smith Imperial Oil Limited Senior Vice President Finance and Administration January 8, 2008

2 World is Not Short of Hydrocarbons Source: ExxonMobil TBOE Hydrocarbon resource ~12 TBOE Produced 3 TBOE Produced Remaining Recoverable Resources

3 GDP Trillion 2005$ 3.0% Global Economics and Energy Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 20301980 – 2005 2.9% Energy Intensity BOE/2005$K GDP -1.6%-1.0% Energy Demand MBDOE 1.3%1.8%

4 By Fuel MBDOE Gas Oil 1.2% 0.9% Coal Other 1.7% By Sector - 2030 Power Generation Res / Comm Transportation Heavy Manufacturing Chemicals Other Industry World Energy Demand 1.3% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 ~ 324 MBDOE

5 Electricity Demand Linked to GDP 1000 kW hours per capita GDP per capita (2005$) OECD Non-OECD China 0 South Korea U.S. 1980 to 2005

6 Power Generation Demand OECD MBDOE 0.9% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 - 2030 Gas Coal Nuclear Oil Renewables -2.8% -0.4% 1.5% 2.2% 1.9% Non-OECD MBDOE 2.2% 0.0% 2.3% 1.8% 4.2% 3.5%

7 Light Duty Vehicle Penetration Linked to GDP Vehicles per 1000 people GDP per capita (2005$) OECD Non-OECD China South Korea U.S. 1990 to 2005

8 Global Transportation Demand OECD MBDOE 0.6% 1.7% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 - 2030 Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Vehicles -0.5% Non-OECD MBDOE 3.1% 2.8% 3.4% 3.6% Other Transport 1.2%

9 Global Industrial Demand OECD MBDOE 0.0% 0.4% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 - 2030 Heavy Manufacturing Chemicals -0.4% Non-OECD MBDOE 1.9% 3.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% Other

10 Global Residential / Commercial Demand OECD MBDOE 0.1% 0.4% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 - 2030 Residential Commercial 0.0% Non-OECD MBDOE 1.0% 1.8% 0.9%

11 World Energy Demand – Primary Energy Supplies Primary Energy 1.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear MBDOE Average Growth / Yr. 2005 - 2030 Wind, Solar & Biofuels 8.7% 10.5% 7.6% Wind Biofuels MBDOE 9.9%Solar Renewables 2.0% Renewables 1.5% 2.0% Hydro/Geo MBDOE Wind, Solar & Biofuels 8.7% 0.7% Biomass/Other

12 Oil Gas Coal Other Demand by Fuel MBDOE OECDNon-OECD Billion Tonnes CO 2 Energy Related CO 2 Emissions World Energy & CO 2 Emissions 0.5%2.0% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 Oil Gas Coal Other 1.9%0.1% 1.9% Oil Gas Coal Oil Gas Coal

13 Global CO 2 Emissions Sensitivities Billion Tonnes 0.5% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 Double biofuels growth through cellulosic ethanol Double rate of improvement of new car efficiency Replace ½ of coal growth with nuclear / CCS Retire coal plants at 40 years and replace with nuclear / CCS Energy Related CO 2 Emissions

14 Greenhouse Gas Policy – Implications for Canada Any meaningful action must be a global action A risk based approach is required given potential costs and uncertainty Meaningful change requires breakthrough technology Policy should ensure any cost of carbon is uniform across the economy and predictable

15 Alberta’s Enacted GHG Legislation A challenging GHG regime on industry by world standards Immediate 12 % reduction in emissions intensity from 2003-05 levels is not likely for many to achieve physically However, use of intensity targets is the right approach – allows economic growth The Alberta technology fund, with contributions fixed at $15 a tonne provides cost certainty AND support to technology development – the only realistic long term solution

16 Canadian Federal proposed GHG regulation Even more stringent than Alberta’s: 18% intensity reduction required in 4 years and 2% each subsequent year Restricted technology fund that phases out quickly Intensity based targets, like Alberta’s, remain the right approach Restricted technology fund provides no “safety valve” on the price of CO2 credits or needed market liquidity; open-ended access for industry to provincial funds needed for effective compliance

17 A more effective approach to climate change risk What would an effective climate change policy do? Long term objective: reduce risks of serious impacts at reasonable costs to society Near term: Promote energy efficiency Promote deployment of existing low-GHG technologies Support R&D of new low-GHG technologies What are we doing in Imperial? Energy efficiency: 16% improvement in refinery energy efficiency since 1994; associated gas flaring reduced 42% since 2002 Technology development: Helping support Stanford University $250 M GCEP Program $10 M to U of Alberta Imperial Oil Centre for oil sands Innovation


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