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1 Fuel Cells By, David Sell Energy Sector
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2 Industry Definition –Fuel Cells Hydrogenics Corporation (NASDAQ: HYGS) Quantum Fuel Systems (NASDAQ: QTWW) FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ: FCEL) Ballard Power Systems (NASDAQ: BLDP) Firms in this industry manufacture and develop solid oxide or molten carbonate fuel cells, which are used as commercial energy utility sources. These goods are used as an alternative energy source. Often they are used by firms for distributed generation or backup power, helping diminish their reliance on a centralized facility or grid, causing lower environmental impact.
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3 Energy Fuel Cell Sector Breakdown Industry Breakdown By Market Cap ($BLN) Stationary Fuel Cells $356.61 M (.027%) Fuel Cells $510.43 M (.038%) Alternative Energy $2.01 Trillion (14.9%) Energy Sector $13.41 Trillion (100%) X$ 18.626 B WOR$ 2.443 B
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4 2011 Revenue Breakdown Fuel Cells Contracts Material Products
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5 Grid Parity Locations by 2015 Grid Parity
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6 Fuel Cell Revenue Generation DesignManufactureSell Install and Service (20.1%) of Revenue(103.9%) of Revenue93.9% of Revenue(13.3%) of Revenue Customer uses Fuel Cell for Distributed Generation or Backup Power Manufacturing outsourcing expected to increase Design / R&D continues to decrease as Rev % Manufacturing outsourcing expected to increase Design / R&D continues to decrease as Rev %
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7 Trends Fuel Cell costs Lower Grid Power costs Higher Distributed Generation / Going Green Transition to Commercial Industry
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8 Fuel Cells affordable in more Areas Low natural gas prices = lower fuel cell price Grid parity in cities increases every year Electricity prices have decreased once in 11 years Fuel cell technology continues to lower costs Projections Elec CAGR = 3.62% Gas CAGR = 6.02%
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9 Distributed Generation Increasing Rapidly Japan, South Korea, and Germany main locations Fuel Cell growth could expand quicker w/ more manufacturers Most manufacturers are subsidies Green is a trend including minimizing grid power Projections FC CAGR = 78.9% NFC CAGR = 58.9% FC CAGR = 78.9% NFC CAGR = 58.9%
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10 Corporation Buyouts Show Transition Sign of transition from R&D to Commercial Industry New Synergies emerging showing profitability Companies buyout others for vertical integration Others from strategic partnerships for future profits Ex. BIC buyout of Angstrom Energy -Google and Ebay hold major equity positions in FC comps -All companies discussed have min 2 strategic partnerships Ex. BIC buyout of Angstrom Energy -Google and Ebay hold major equity positions in FC comps -All companies discussed have min 2 strategic partnerships
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11 Key Financials Symbol Market Cap (M) % of 52 high Closing PriceP/EEPS EV/EBIT DA Debt/Equ ity Debt/EBIT DA R&D/EBIT DA FCEL172.9147.20.98-4.08-0.24-25.343.22-10.96-1.33 BLDP84.4457.11-2.86-0.35-6.150.79-3.27-1.14 HYGS46.8289.26.2-4.56-1.36-6.461.88-1.17-0.32 QTWW42.825.10.9-0.57-1.59-2.752.04-2.990.00 High172.9189.26.2-0.57-0.24-2.753.22-1.170.00 Low42.825.10.9-4.56-1.59-25.340.79-10.96-1.33 Mean86.742554.652.27-3.02-0.89-10.171.98-4.60-0.70 Median65.6352.150.99-3.47-0.86-6.301.96-3.13-0.73
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12 Stationary Fuel Cell Manufacturing Recommendation: Positive Operates with trends Signifying: 1.Costs are decreasing and competition prices increasing 2.Long-time R&D industry transitioning to commercial base Must Combat key risks of: 1.Solar or Wind becoming more widely used 2.Smart-grid may get cheaper eliminating grid- parity
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