2. Objectives Learn – Understand the strategic planning process – The pilot’s perspective of weather Understand – Controlling the National Air Space – Direct Weather Support of FAA Centers Improve – Supporting our customers – Science - improving the bottom line

3. Thanks Ross Dickman John Guiney Bill Scura Staff of ERH and WFO NYC and CWSU ZNY

4. Logistics Tours – 4:30 PM CWSU Tour See Brandon at Break Dinner – Long Island Grill ~ 6:45 PM 200 Portion Road Lake Ronkonkoma, NY 11779 Sign up by 1 PM (head count)

5. Aviation Weather Brandon Smith Jeff Tongue a “quick” tour of our past and future

6. Some Background on me… Operational Meteorologist for over 18 years. 15 Years as US Navy Meteorologist (Active and Reserve) Civilian Ship Router National Weather Service Meteorologist for 4 years –WFO Salt Lake City –WFO NYC

7. Some Background on me… Operational Meteorologist for over 25 years. 24 Years as USAF Meteorologist National Weather Service Meteorologist for 17 years –Space Shuttle Meteorologist – NASA JSC –NYC Science and Operations Officer

8. In the beginning…. On the evening of December 16, there was an ominous black line of clouds on the horizon. This front advanced quickly. The rain abated by morning, leaving puddles of ice between the sand dunes. The wind, however, continued to blow in from the ocean, gusting to 30 miles an hour and creating a chill of 4 degrees.

9. December 17, 1903 About 10:35, Orville loosed the restraining wire, and the machine began to move down the rail into a bitter wind that was now gusting to 27 miles per hour. Wilbur ran along side. Two thirds of the way down the rail, the Flyer lifted into the air and the crew cheered.

10. World War I Bergen School of Meteorology – Jacob Bjerknes Jacob Bjerknes – Halvor Solberg Halvor Solberg – Tor Bergeron Tor Bergeron – Carl-Gustaf Rossby Carl-Gustaf Rossby – Sverre Petterssen Sverre Petterssen – Erik Palmén Erik Palmén – Erik Björkdal Erik Björkdal – Svein Rosseland Svein Rosseland – Carl Ludvig Godske Carl Ludvig Godske – Johan Sandström Johan Sandström

11. Air Mail United States Post Office Department on May 15, 1918, with the inauguration of the Washington-Philadelphia-New York route United States Post Office Department

12. Early Aviation Support… 1914 – the US Weather Bureau establishes its Aerological Program to provide general aviation products. 1918 – first aviation bulletins for military and postal flights. TAFs are written. 1918 – first route forecast (TWEB?) for a mail route from NYC to DC.

13. Early Aviation Support… 1926 - Air Commerce Act…which the Weather Bureau to "furnish weather reports, forecasts, warnings... to promote the safety and efficiency of air navigation in the United States." 1931- Daily 5 a.m. aircraft observations were taken at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, and Omaha at altitudes up to 16,000 ft. 1933 – Weather Balloons replace aircraft.

14. Early Aviation Support… 1926 - Air Commerce Act…which the Weather Bureau to "furnish weather reports, forecasts, warnings... to promote the safety and efficiency of air navigation in the United States." 1931- Daily 5 a.m. aircraft observations were taken at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, and Omaha at altitudes up to 16,000 ft. 1933 – Weather Balloons replace aircraft.

15. Early Aviation Support… 1926 - Air Commerce Act…which the Weather Bureau to "furnish weather reports, forecasts, warnings... to promote the safety and efficiency of air navigation in the United States." 1931- Daily 5 a.m. aircraft observations were taken at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, and Omaha at altitudes up to 16,000 ft. 1933 – Weather Balloons replace aircraft.

16. Early Aviation Support… 1942 - The US Navy gives the Weather Bureau 25 aircraft radars to be modified for ground meteorological use, marking the start of a weather radar system in the U.S. 1942 - The Navy begins producing aviation-specific forecasts…which are vital to the success of key WWII battles. 1944 – The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is developed.

17. Early Aviation Support… 1942 - The US Navy gives the Weather Bureau 25 aircraft radars to be modified for ground meteorological use, marking the start of a weather radar system in the U.S. 1942 - The Navy begins producing aviation-specific forecasts…which are vital to the success of key WWII battles. 1944 – The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is developed.

18. Early Aviation Support… 1942 - The US Navy gives the Weather Bureau 25 aircraft radars to be modified for ground meteorological use, marking the start of a weather radar system in the U.S. 1942 - The Navy begins producing aviation-specific forecasts…which are vital to the success of key WWII battles. 1944 – The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is developed.

19. Early Aviation Support… 1968 – Meteorological Aviation Report (METAR) format was introduced internationally (although the US used the SAO code until 1996) 1977 - New Hope, GA airline accident spurred the establishment of Center Weather Service Units to provide more timely weather support to controllers.

20. Early Aviation Support… 1968 – Meteorological Aviation Report (METAR) format was introduced internationally (although the US used the SAO code until 1996) 1977 - New Hope, GA airline accident spurred the establishment of Center Weather Service Units to provide more timely weather support to controllers.

21. CWSU’s formed as a results of… April 4, 1977 Southern Airlines – New Hope, GA Probable Cause: Captain's decision to penetrate rather than avoid an area of severe weather, the failure to obtain all the available weather information despite having knowledge of the severity of the storm system, and the reliance upon airborne weather radar for penetration rather than avoidance of the storm system.

22. Today … $6 BILLION $6 BILLION –What is lost annually in economic efficiencies as a result of air traffic delays 70% 70% –The percentage of air traffic delays attributed to weather

23. The National Weather Service Provides all facets of aviation weather in the U.S. / International Waters Aviation Weather Center –Kansas City 122 Weather Forecast Offices 21 Center Weather Service Units

24. AWC aviationweather.gov –AIRMETS SIGMETS –ADDS AviationDigitalDataService

25. Weather Forecast Offices TAF’sAirport Weather Weather Advisories AdvisoriesDiscussions

26. Pilot Training

27. Today

28. The Future?? New Graphical Communication ?? – Deterministic – Stochastic New Terminal Forecast ??

31. Terminal Forecast

32. Future TAF KJFK 151221Z 1512/1618 13010KT 3SM -RA BR SCT001 OVC003 TEMPO 1512/1514 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN001 FM151400 13012KT 1SM RA BR VCTS OVC004CB WS020/18060KT FM151600 18016G24KT 4SM -RA BR OVC004 WS020/18060KT FM152000 19021G29KT 4SM -RA BR OVC007 WS020/19055KT FM160100 19014G23KT 2SM +RA BR OVC009CB WS020/19060KT TEMPO 1601/1605 VRB25G40KT OVC005CB FM160500 19014KT 4SM -RA BR BKN015 OVC060 FM160800 23013KT P6SM SCT025 BKN070 FM161300 27020G30KT P6SM BKN120=