1. USING & INTERPRETING THE DSF Presenter: Hugh Cross MDBC

2. PART 1: Use of DSF Analyses within the BDP and Rules Development Processes

3. Analytical Framework for Impact Assessment in the LMB Analytical Framework for Impact Assessment in the LMB

4. Key water related sectors: Key water related sectors:  irrigated agriculture;  navigation;  watershed management;  tourism;  fisheries and bio-diversity;  domestic and industrial water supply;  hydropower;  flood management.

5. Planning stepsRemarks Planning preparatory work ADevelopment goalsPlanners define the development aims and objectives that their plans or assessments are expected to achieve BAssessment framework Planners define the high-level development indicators that effectively demonstrate whether the development goals are being achieved CDevelopment opportunities Planners define the different development opportunities that may exist to achieve the development goals DDevelopment Scenario Planners define the development scenarios that need to be investigated

6. Scenario definition and reporting E.1Scenario Objective For each planning issue, planners define a scenario objective that states what is to be tested against which potential sectoral interests E.2Scenario Components Agreement is reached between the DSF modelling team and planners on the scenario’s components, i.e. hydrological conditions, prevailing demands and interventions in place E.3Relevant trans- boundary issues by Sector The DSF modelling team agrees with the planners which relevant issues are to be investigated when running the scenario E.4Indicators relevant to trans-boundary issues The DSF modelling team agrees with the planners which indicators are to be tested for each selected trans-boundary issue E.5Tools for testing changes in indicators The DSF modelling team selects the tools required to test the selected indicators E.6Reporting The DSF modelling team agrees with the planners how information on each indicator is to be reported

7. End-user scenario post-assessment FMulti-criteria analysis format The end-user defines a procedure for multi- criteria assessment of alternative scenarios, linking the high-level development indicators to the indicators used for analysis of trans-boundary issues GMulti-criteria assessment Each scenario is assessed using MCA to find out the one that best meets the development goals with the most acceptable mix of development indicators

8. Planning Step E2: Setting DSF Scenario Components Climate Conditions Assuming the future is represented by conditions in: Assuming the future is represented by conditions in: 1985-2000 1985-2000 Any selected period within 1985-2000 Any selected period within 1985-2000 Representative years (wet, dry, typical) Representative years (wet, dry, typical) New time-series of predicted conditions based on climate change forecasts New time-series of predicted conditions based on climate change forecasts Or any of the above with factored changes in: Or any of the above with factored changes in: Rainfall, temperature etc Rainfall, temperature etc Sea level change Sea level change Changes in tidal range Changes in tidal range

9. System Demands Assuming the future is represented by changed conditions in: Assuming the future is represented by changed conditions in: Urban and rural water supply dependent on river abstractions Urban and rural water supply dependent on river abstractions Industrial water supply dependent on river abstractions Industrial water supply dependent on river abstractions Changes in existing irrigation areas Changes in existing irrigation areas New irrigation areas New irrigation areas Changes in crop mixes Changes in crop mixes Changes in irrigation efficiencies Changes in irrigation efficiencies Changes in drainage/return flow Changes in drainage/return flow Freshwater aquaculture Freshwater aquaculture

10. Proposed Interventions Land management practices: Land management practices: Change in catchment runoff factors Change in catchment runoff factors Reservoirs (including hydropower): Reservoirs (including hydropower): New reservoirs in China New reservoirs in China New reservoirs in LMB New reservoirs in LMB Changes in operation of existing reservoirs Changes in operation of existing reservoirs Flood protection (d/s Kratie): Flood protection (d/s Kratie): New embankments and roads New embankments and roads Raised embankments and roads Raised embankments and roads Channel improvements (d/s Kratie): Channel improvements (d/s Kratie): Dredging and re-profiling Dredging and re-profiling Cross-regulation Cross-regulation Salinity intrusion barriers Salinity intrusion barriers

11. Scenario Analysis Task E.3: Relevant trans-boundary issues by Sector Sector: Navigation SalinityControl Wetlands Fisheries Ecosystems Estuaries Water Supply Water Quality AgricultureIrrigation & Drainage Rural Populations Issue: Highly relevant Moderately relevant MRC Agreement Article 6 'Rules' 1 Water Quality Deterioration & Sedimentation 2 Fisheries Productivity & Ecosystem Functioning 3 River Bank Erosion 4 Obstruction to Navigation 5 Inadequate Dry Season Flows 6Flooding

12. Sub-issues:

13. WQ sub-issues:

14. Scenario Planning Step E.4: Indicators relevant to trans-boundary issues by Sector Suggested Indicator DSF Tool Code Source Data Available ISSUE Refer to indicator - tool table for tool reference numbers MRC Agreement Article 6 'Rules' Art 6a"Acceptable" minimum low flows for each month of the dry season Daily flow: duration of low flow events, duration of stable low flows, minimum flows 101F, 102F, 144F, 153F DSF simulated Art 6b"Acceptable" natural reverse flow of the Tonle Sap in the wet season Daily flow (at Kratie): mean peak wet season flow 112F DSF simulated Daily flow (at Prek Kdam): date of flow reversal, peak reverse flow 162F DSF simulated Art 6cAverage daily peak flows < average natural flood season conditions Daily flow: mean & highest wet season flows 112F, 111F DSF simulated

15. Time-Series Tools: Scenario Planning Step E5: DSF Tools for testing changes in indicators

16. Spatial Tools:

17. Example of indicators & reports – demonstration scenarios: Test Issue Analysis IndicatorsIndicator ReportsLocation 1. “Acceptable ” Minimum flows in the dry season 1.1  Mean daily dry season flows for each month of the dry-season  Extreme annual minimum daily flow  Difference in mean daily discharge (cumecs) for each dry season month between the Baseline & development scenarios’ greater than one standard deviation.  Comparison table of development scenario value verses baseline scenario Representative mainstream primary reporting sites 1.2  Dry season flow duration curves (cumulative probability of exceedance)  Flow duration curve graphs (daily flows) for the dry season only, using both the ‘Annual Distribution – Monthly’ for whole year & Daily FDC for 1 Dec to 31 May Representative mainstream primary reporting sites 1.3  Low Flow variability  Start, duration & end of the dry season  Low flow variability – median duration without a relative change in flow greater than 1/10 the median flow for at least 30 days Representative mainstream primary reporting sites 1.4  Visual comparison of time-series data  Time-series plots of low flows by date and overlaid with the Baseline. Zoom plot to only lower flows and period 1998 – 2000. Representative mainstream primary reporting sites

18. PART 2: USING THE DSF 1. Your team and other little helpers 2. Where to find the DSF 3. Mother’s shopping list 4. Conversations with an monk 5. Other things that you will need 6. Oh, so someone has been here before? 7. But now we are real explorers… 8. Shhhh, its thinking…. 9. Santa Clause and gods bearing gifts…

19. 1. Your team and other little helpers Planning team: Planning team: Planners Planners Sector programs Sector programs National agencies National agencies Specialist modellers Specialist modellers

20. 2. Where to find the DSF Coming to a store near you soon: Coming to a store near you soon: In the MRC secretariat mobile office In the MRC secretariat mobile office In each of the 4 NMC offices In each of the 4 NMC offices At each location: At each location: Accessible by any authorised user on a PC linked to the office LAN Accessible by any authorised user on a PC linked to the office LAN Regular updates to each office to ensure data consistency Regular updates to each office to ensure data consistency

21. 3. Mother’s shopping list The DSF organises future basin conditions within ‘scenarios’ The DSF organises future basin conditions within ‘scenarios’ Each scenario requires: Each scenario requires: An objective An objective Specification of future conditions Specification of future conditions Future conditions are organised by: Future conditions are organised by: Climate parameters Climate parameters Demands (water requirements) Demands (water requirements) Interventions (physical) Interventions (physical) Mother’s National Plan Shopping list for Cambodia… Economic objectives Poverty alleviation Infrastructure development Subsistence fisheries objectives Power generation Agricultural development … …and various other national goals & objectives

22. 4. Conversations with an monk Basin Planning using a DSF requires many types of monks: Basin Planning using a DSF requires many types of monks: Planning monks – mostly you guys, including; Planning monks – mostly you guys, including; River basin planners, e.g. for water resource development River basin planners, e.g. for water resource development Economists Economists Social specialists Social specialists Sector monks (MRCS, NMCs, National agencies); Sector monks (MRCS, NMCs, National agencies); Fisheries Fisheries Navigation Navigation Environment Environment Agriculture Agriculture Aquaculture Aquaculture etc etc Modelling monks – i.e. the DSF ‘monks’ Modelling monks – i.e. the DSF ‘monks’

23. 5. Other things that you will need To run a new scenario the DSF monks need advice on: To run a new scenario the DSF monks need advice on: Input parameters: Input parameters: Climate Climate Demands / management Demands / management Physical interventions Physical interventions Output parameters: Output parameters: Which locations & frequencies (hourly, daily, weekly…) for each time-series parameter Which locations & frequencies (hourly, daily, weekly…) for each time-series parameter Which time periods (whole year or a season or month) Which time periods (whole year or a season or month) What parameters to use for maps of floods and saline intrusion What parameters to use for maps of floods and saline intrusion

24. Modelled water levels at Ben Luc 1998 Modelled water levels at Ben Luc 1998 Mean ? Daily maximum ? Lowest ? Daily minimum? Highest ? 10 days

25. 6. Oh, so someone has been here before? The results of previous scenarios can be saved to the DSF for others to use: The results of previous scenarios can be saved to the DSF for others to use: All models have default output settings – parameters, times & locations All models have default output settings – parameters, times & locations Scenario models are saved – so if you want additional parameters, times & locations just ask the modeller monks to re-run the models with your preferences Scenario models are saved – so if you want additional parameters, times & locations just ask the modeller monks to re-run the models with your preferences Impact analysis results may have been saved to the DSF Impact analysis results may have been saved to the DSF Caution! – be sure to check all assumptions, scenario configurations, indicator settings before using – ask your friendly modeller monk to assist checking the model parameters Caution! – be sure to check all assumptions, scenario configurations, indicator settings before using – ask your friendly modeller monk to assist checking the model parameters

26. 7. But now we are real explorers… Scenario set up time & difficulty depends on the nature of the future conditions to be simulated Scenario set up time & difficulty depends on the nature of the future conditions to be simulated Also… Also… All new scenarios are based on an existing scenario All new scenarios are based on an existing scenario The choice of the ‘parent’ scenario is up to the user The choice of the ‘parent’ scenario is up to the user The most common ‘parent’ is likely to be the Baseline Conditions scenario – as it the one to which others are to be compared The most common ‘parent’ is likely to be the Baseline Conditions scenario – as it the one to which others are to be compared New scenarios don’t always require all 3 models to be re-run New scenarios don’t always require all 3 models to be re-run The 3 models can only be changed by the expert modeller monks The 3 models can only be changed by the expert modeller monks

27. Hydrologic model – Hydrologic model – Can factor rainfall & temperature easily Can factor rainfall & temperature easily Can introduce completely new climate data if available – e.g. for climate change scenarios Can introduce completely new climate data if available – e.g. for climate change scenarios Soil, landcover, land management practices take more time – please have a coffee Soil, landcover, land management practices take more time – please have a coffee Caution is need in modelling landuse change given the limited data available for calibration Caution is need in modelling landuse change given the limited data available for calibration

28. Location of SWAT sub-basins relative to potential dams Location of SWAT sub-basins relative to potential dams

29. River Simulation model – can change: River Simulation model – can change: Crop areas for both dry and wet seasons- moderately easy Crop areas for both dry and wet seasons- moderately easy Crop water demands- moderately easy Crop water demands- moderately easy Return flows (to the river) - easy Return flows (to the river) - easy New operational rules for existing dams- easy if rules are clear New operational rules for existing dams- easy if rules are clear New storages- moderately easy if all information available New storages- moderately easy if all information available Non-irrigation demands – e.g. higher urban demands - easy Non-irrigation demands – e.g. higher urban demands - easy Temperature and rainfall are changed through input files common to both the Hydrologic and Simulation models Temperature and rainfall are changed through input files common to both the Hydrologic and Simulation models

30. River simulation model data needs: ( = capacity to change these parameters ) Minimum data Catchment Catchment Rainfall Rainfall Streamflow Streamflow Evaporation Evaporation Storages Storages Diversion locations Diversion locations Design water use Design water use Desirable additional where available/appropriate Actual water use Licensing Crop types and areas Actual pump capacities User decisions Existing operating rules

31. Location of irrigation demand nodes in Isan Province Location of irrigation demand nodes in Isan Province

32. Hydrodynamic model – can change; Hydrodynamic model – can change; Physical topographic features Physical topographic features Channels Channels Levees Levees Roads Roads River channel location, width, depth River channel location, width, depth River flow River flow By changes to flows at Kratie & Tonle Sap tributaries By changes to flows at Kratie & Tonle Sap tributaries By alterations to water demands – irrigation & others By alterations to water demands – irrigation & others Sea level changes Sea level changes

33. Area covered by the hydrodynamic model Area covered by the hydrodynamic model Kratie Phnom Penh

34. Beginning the Hydrodynamic schematisation… Beginning the Hydrodynamic schematisation…

35. Hydrodynamic model node structure Hydrodynamic model node structure

36. Detail of hydrodynamic model Detail of hydrodynamic model

37. 8. Shhhh, its thinking…. Running the DSF simulations: Running the DSF simulations: Time for a cup of coffee – let the modellers get on the mysterious Time for a cup of coffee – let the modellers get on the mysterious “I’ll be back!” modellers often come back wanting changes – (more) compromises needed in schematising the scenario “I’ll be back!” modellers often come back wanting changes – (more) compromises needed in schematising the scenario Each type of model takes different lengths of time to run – the Hydrodynamic model takes the longest – about 40 minutes Each type of model takes different lengths of time to run – the Hydrodynamic model takes the longest – about 40 minutes Saving the results to the DSF takes additional time – perhaps as long as it takes to run the models Saving the results to the DSF takes additional time – perhaps as long as it takes to run the models The more you ask for (locations, short time-steps) the longer they take to run and to save to the DSF The more you ask for (locations, short time-steps) the longer they take to run and to save to the DSF The volumes of data are large – the DSF models & results for 8 scenarios currently use 5 GB The volumes of data are large – the DSF models & results for 8 scenarios currently use 5 GB

38. 9. Santa Clause and gods bearing gifts… Checking & using the results: Checking & using the results: Users should have a pre-conception of what “should” result from a scenario – Users should have a pre-conception of what “should” result from a scenario – Check against this pre-conception Check against this pre-conception Explore differences relative to the baseline or other ‘reference’ scenario Explore differences relative to the baseline or other ‘reference’ scenario Conduct ‘sensitivity’ tests by changing input parameter values & re-running the models Conduct ‘sensitivity’ tests by changing input parameter values & re-running the models Use the impact analysis tools to; Use the impact analysis tools to; Conduct the above checks Conduct the above checks Explore the usefulness of particular indicators for analysing the changes of interest Explore the usefulness of particular indicators for analysing the changes of interest Conduct the comparative analysis with the selected indicators Conduct the comparative analysis with the selected indicators

39. PART 3: USING THE IMPACT ANALYSIS TOOLS

40. Time-Series Tools Use the results of the 3 simulation models Use the results of the 3 simulation models Simulated data accessed through the main DSF interface Simulated data accessed through the main DSF interface Tools

41. All simulated data are stored by scenario, so… All simulated data are stored by scenario, so… First open a scenario First open a scenario

42. By choosing from the drop-down menu… By choosing from the drop-down menu…

43. Choose the data sets: Choose the data sets: By site and/or by parameter… By site and/or by parameter…

47. Stung Treng Phnom Penh

48. Choose options prior to running the tool Choose options prior to running the tool

50. Scenarios can be compared using statistical parameters…

51. …or using visual analysis of graphs Residual of Baseline to High Irrigation Growth scenario

52. Monthly volumes: Monthly volumes: Daily flows: Daily flows: Comparisons using Cumulative Exceedance tool: Comparisons using Cumulative Exceedance tool:

53. Comparisons using Event Analysis tool: Comparisons using Event Analysis tool:

54. Event Analysis tool Event Analysis tool

55. Right click to get more options…

57. Results of flood event analysis: Results of flood event analysis:

58. Results of flood event analysis if use 60 days minimum event length: Results of flood event analysis if use 60 days minimum event length:

59. Additional analysis by exporting tabular data:

60. Time-Series analysis tools: So… So… The analysis tools provide flexibility The analysis tools provide flexibility Filter and input values are important Filter and input values are important Choosing filter values and settings depend on analysis objectives Choosing filter values and settings depend on analysis objectives Results need to be checked against expected outcomes and analysis objectives Results need to be checked against expected outcomes and analysis objectives

61. Spatial Tools: Use spatial outputs from the hydrodynamic model Use spatial outputs from the hydrodynamic model Flood depth maps Flood depth maps Flood depth-duration maps Flood depth-duration maps Salinity intrusion maps Salinity intrusion maps Salinity intrusion-duration maps Salinity intrusion-duration maps Compare these with many different layers in the Knowledge Base Compare these with many different layers in the Knowledge Base Specialist GIS expertise is required to generate original maps Specialist GIS expertise is required to generate original maps

62. Raw output from Delta Mapper Raw output from Delta Mapper

63. Imported DeltaMapper flood depth layer: Imported DeltaMapper flood depth layer:

64. Imported DeltaMapper flood duration layer: Imported DeltaMapper flood duration layer:

65. Imported DeltaMapper max. salinity intrusion layer: Imported DeltaMapper max. salinity intrusion layer:

68. Spatial analysis tools: So… So… The spatial analysis tools provide flexibility The spatial analysis tools provide flexibility Specialist assistance is needed Specialist assistance is needed Choosing thresholds depend on analysis objectives Choosing thresholds depend on analysis objectives Results need to be checked against expected outcomes and analysis objectives Results need to be checked against expected outcomes and analysis objectives