1. REGIONAL FREIGHT PERSPECTIVES: QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF VOLUMES Bill Anderson (bander@uwindsor.ca) Ontario Research Chair in Cross-Border Transportation Policy, University of Windsor, www.uwindsor.ca/crossborder/ Transportation Border Working Group Dearborn, MI, April 24, 2013

2. Background  Ontario has a trade dependent economy  80% of trade with the US  US trade greater than interprovincial trade  75% by truck  90% of trucks at four crossings  Google: The Border and the Ontario Economy

3. Highway distance (km) from Toronto

4. Traffic projections for new bridge (million vehicles per year) year Wilbur Smith (MDOT) Halcrow (Amb. Bridge) carstruckscarstrucks 20152.921.89 20163.072.74 20254.423.922.462.16 20356.004.872.472.35

5. Some key question on the future of freight volumes  Will the downward trend in non-oil Canada-US trade continue?  Will the average value of truckloads increase?  Will cross-border automotive supply chains expand or contract?  Will global trade across Ontario-US borders increase?

6. Canadian exports to the US: Total and Oil and Gas

7. Value per truckload  If value per increases, truck movements won’t keep pace with trade trends  Limited evidence of increase  Factors  Industry mix  Value of goods within industries (shift to high value goods with global competition)

8. Cross-border automotive supply chains  Automotive industry is in a post-recession growth cycle  Canada’s share of North American automotive investment is down (Globe and Mail, April 12)  “New domestics” more likely to source locally than across the border.

9. Global trade  Almost 30% of Canada’s marine/rail imports destined to US  Asia-Pacific Gateway project  Expansion potential in Halifax and Montreal  Halifax can handle large draft  Potential for intermodal expansion in Detroit