1. 2013-14 Efficiency Savings and Performance Incentive (ESPI) Mechanism Uncertain Measure List Katie Wu Integrated Demand Side Analysis, Energy Division October 31, 2013 1

2. 2013-14 Incentive Mechanism 2 1 Incentive Mechanism Background 2 Draft 2013 Uncertain List 3 P4 Analysis Overview 4 2013 and 2014 Uncertain List 5 Next Steps

3. Meeting Objectives Discuss if/how the current ESPI Uncertain List should be modified Inform stakeholders of the data sources and relevant outputs Provide background and overview of the ESPI Uncertain List process 3

4. Incentive Mechanism Background Energy savings awards only: 2006-07: Ex post awards 2008-09: Ex ante awards No energy savings awards: 5% Management Fee 1% Ex ante review performance bonus Multiple components including: Management fees Ex ante review performance award Ex ante and ex post energy savings award 4 2006-092010-12 2013 and beyond

5. Ex Ante and Ex Post Savings Calculation 5 Ex Ante Used for measures with a high level of confidence in the savings parameters Currently represents ~70% of savings Ex Post Used for custom projects/measures and measures that are considered “uncertain” Currently represents ~30% of savings “Uncertain” measures are those where the net lifetime savings of the current estimate may be as much as 50% or more under- or over-estimated.

6. Draft 2013 Uncertain List Lighting LED Lamps, Fixtures, and Night Lights Screw-in CFLs Occupancy Sensor Lighting Controls T5 Fluorescent lamps and fixtures replacing metal halides Delamping of T12 lamps in existing fixtures Water/Energy Measures Water Savings Kits/Items Sprinklers – low pressure nozzles and micro conversions 6 HVAC Quality Maintenance Activities Mini-Split Systems Comprehensive Residential Energy Upgrade California Home Energy Reports and Surveys Other EE Measures Computer network and workstation power mgmt software Variable Speed Pool Pumps Pipe Insulation

7. Create single table of portfolio measures and parameter values Assign measure groups Solicit stakeholder opinions on relative uncertainty and high priority parameters Perform Sensitivity Analysis to determine contribution to variance in portfolio savings Report programs and measures where EM&V activities should be prioritized 7 P4 Uncertainty Analysis

8. P4 Analysis Measure Groups 8 Lighting Linear fluor repl. MH Other linear fluor Screw-in CFLs LED lamps and fixtures Occupancy sensors Appliances Commercial Refrigeration Appliance Recycling Residential Energy Upgrade California Home Energy Reports HVAC Quality Maintenance Activities Package and Split Systems Mini-split systems Other EE Measures Pipe Insulation VFD Pool Pumps Water/Energy Measures Domestic Hot Water Savers Water heater controls Sprinklers

9. Parameter Contribution to Variance - kWh 9

10. Parameter Contribution to Variance - therms 10

11. Comparing the Draft 2013 List and P4 Results 11 Lighting LED Lamps Screw-in CFLs Occupancy Sensor Lighting Controls T5 Fluorescent lamps and fixtures replacing metal halides HVAC Quality Maintenance Mini-Split Systems Energy Management Software Computer network and workstation power management software

12. Comparing the Draft 2013 List and P4 Results 12 HVAC Packaged and Split Systems Other measures that are not QI/QM or Upstream Whole Building Commercial Commercial Whole Building (non-res onsite audits) Other EE Measures Laundry Service Hot Water Service Hot Water – Controls Sprinklers Lighting LED Fixtures and Other De-lamping of T12 lamps in existing fixtures LED Night Lights Water/Energy Measures Variable Speed Pool Pump Pipe Insulation – Steam and Hot Water Water Savings Kits/Items – Shower and Faucets Whole Building Residential Energy Upgrade California Home Energy Reports

13. 2013 and 2014 Uncertain List 13 Lighting LED Lamps, Fixtures, and Night Lights Screw-in CFLs Occupancy Sensor Lighting Controls T5 Fluorescent lamps and fixtures replacing metal halides Delamping of T12 lamps in existing fixtures Water/Energy Measures Water Savings Kits/Items Sprinklers – low pressure nozzles and micro conversions HVAC Quality Maintenance Activities Mini-Split Systems Comprehensive Residential Energy Upgrade California Home Energy Reports and Surveys Other EE Measures Computer network and workstation power mgmt software Variable Speed Pool Pumps Pipe Insulation

14. Considerations for Modifications to the ESPI List 14 EM&V Priority Expectation to Scale Up Stakeholder Interest for EM&V Research Capacity to Evaluate

15. Discussion Questions 15 Are there measures on the list where ex post study will not lead to better savings estimates than what we currently have? Are there measures on the list that will be overly burdensome or expensive to study? Are there measures that are not currently on the ESPI list that should be awarded on an ex post basis?

16. Next Steps 16 1 Feedback on 2013 and 2014 lists is due to Katie Wu by Thursday, November 21 2 Once a final list is available, it will be announced on the ESPI service list and posted to the Public Documents Area and CPUC websites 3 Commission staff will continue to coordinate with EM&V consultants to study ESPI Uncertain Measures