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March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed.

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Presentation on theme: "March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed."— Presentation transcript:

1 March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed without the expressed consent of Baseball Info Solutions. © 2012 Baseball Info Solutions Does the Ted Williams Shift Work?

2 Tampa Bay Rays Best Defensive Team of 2011 TeamDefensive Runs Saved Tampa Bay Rays85 Arizona Diamondbacks54 San Diego Padres46 Cincinnati Reds44 Colorado Rockies34

3 Top Shifting Teams Rays also most aggressive with shifts TeamShifts Tampa Bay Rays216 Milwaukee Brewers170 Cleveland Indians148 Toronto Blue Jays117 Three Teams Tied75

4 Rays Shifts Against top 10 shifted hitters 110 Shifts 66 Ted Williams Shifts Against other hitters 106 shifts

5 Is it a coincidence?

6 Brewers Infield- 2011 Prince Fielder -17 Runs Saved in 2010 (35 th of 35 1B) Rickie Weeks -16 Runs Saved in 2010 (34 th of 35 2B) Yuniesky Betancourt -27 Runs Saved in 2010 (35 th of 35 SS) Casey McGehee -14 Runs Saved in 2010 (T-31 st of 35 3B)

7 Ron Roenicke & The Shift Against top 10 shifted hitters 45 Shifts 25 Ted Williams Shifts Against other hitters 125 shifts Only 22 shifts in all of 2010, least in MLB

8 Brewers' Improvement Four infielders improved 56 runs Player2010 Runs Saved2011 Runs Saved Prince Fielder-17-9 Rickie Weeks-16-5 Yuniesky Betancourt-27-7 Casey McGehee-143 Total-74-18

9 Is it a coincidence?

10 Origin of the Ted Williams Shift

11 All Shifts vs. “The Shift” The Ted Williams Shift Other Shifts

12 Top Ten Shifted Hitters HitterAll Shifts (2010-11) David Ortiz486 Ryan Howard461 Carlos Pena314 Adam Dunn305 Prince Fielder253 Jim Thome223 Adrian Gonzalez205 Mark Teixeira180 Brian McCann118 Jack Cust115

13 Pena and McCann vs. The Shift Hitter Ted Williams Shift On No Ted Williams Shift Shift Bunt Hits Carlos Pena.243.19111 Brian McCann.321.2504 Weighted Average.266.208 Batting Average On Grounders, Short Liners & Bunts

14 Remaining Eight Hitters Ted Williams Shift On No Ted Williams Shift Difference Weighted Average.194.24551 points Batting Average On Grounders, Short Liners & Bunts

15 Bases Empty/Runners On Ted Williams Shift On No Ted Williams Shift Difference Bases Empty.194.23238 points Runners On.208.25143 points Batting Average On Grounders, Short Liners & Bunts

16 Ryan Howard in BIS-D Last 120 grounders and short liners Shift Candidate (89% right of 2B) 0 bunt attempts in last 464 plate appearances

17 Alex Gordon in BIS-D Last 120 grounders and short liners Shift Candidate (84% right of 2B) 0 bunt attempts in last 415 plate appearances

18 Dan Uggla in BIS-D Last 120 grounders and short liners Shift Candidate (91% left of 2B) 0 bunt attempts in last 314 plate appearances

19 The Shift 48 LHB recommended for the shift by BIS-D 56 RHB recommended for the shift by BIS-D (including 16 who pull over 90 percent of grounders and short liners) MLB Teams Should Shift More Often

20 Beyond Ted Williams Less dramatic positioning for every hitter

21 Beyond Ted Williams Consider Pitch Type, Count, and Pitch Location Are there situations where average hitters exhibit extreme groundball pull tendencies? Are there situations where heavy pull hitters should NOT be shifted?

22 Pull Pct By Pitch Type Average RHB pulls under 68% of cutters and 72% of fastballs Pulls over 83% of curves, splitters, and changeups

23 Pull Pct By Count Average RHB pulls 58% of GB in 0-2 counts vs. RHP Pulls over 80% when ahead 3-0 or 3-1

24 Pull Pct By Pitch Location

25

26 Shift Candidates

27

28 Conclusions Average hitter pulls off-speed pitches, ahead in the count, and/or down and in LHB Shift Candidates pull almost everything except when behind in the count 0-2 and 1-2

29 March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed without the expressed consent of Baseball Info Solutions. © 2012 Baseball Info Solutions Does the Ted Williams Shift Work?


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