1. The Use and Value of Climate Information for Wind Power Planning Bret Harper August 9, 2005 SOARS® Program University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO

2. The Storyline The coming energy transformation Research questions Climatology and wind power analysis ENSO’s effects on power production

3. The Time For an Energy Transformation Is Now! (or maybe long overdue) Driving forces and threats: Persistent local/regional air pollution (Davis 2002) Volatile oil and gas prices (Hall 2005) Economic and security risks (O’Brien and Leichenko 2000, Barnett 2001) High levels of investment are required for a transformation of energy infrastructure 50-100 years are needed for transformation of energy infrastructure

4. Northern Great Plains 58% of US onshore wind resource (AWEA 2004) Diversifying US electric power resource Wind power development is an opportunity for economic revitalization Agricultural economy is in decline due to: Mechanization Globalization Ground water shortages

5. Integrating Wind into Electricity Grids Wind power planning has focused on short- term forecasting More attention is needed on long- term climate variability that will influence weather patterns Wind turbines and substation. (AWEA 2004)

6. The Challenge of Matching Electricity Demand and Supply Generating plants Transmission Weather patterns TV pickups Changes in wind speeds Diversified source Weather Forecasts Climate Information AWEA 2004

7. Weather Forecasting and Climate Information Good weather forecasts and climate information are crucial to the future of the wind power industry Hourly weather forecasts are necessary to participate in deregulated energy market Climate information is important to estimating the long-term capacity for energy production and economic returns on the infrastructure investments

9. Critical Issue ENSO effects: Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Tornado activity Peak wind gust Wind power production

10. Research Questions from: Renewable Resource Data CenterRenewable Resource Data Center 1.Do periods of ENSO impact the characteristics of wind in the Northern Great Plains? 2.How can climate information be best used for planning: the future electric grid supply operations, and the potential for wind energy penetration.

11. Approach NCDC TD6421 Enhanced Hourly Wind Station Data for the Contiguous United States Huron Airport Pierre Airport Ellsworth AFB Rapid City Airport 49 yr of hourly data 1950-1999 > 1.7 million hours High resolution map of South Dakota’s wind energy resource (NREL).

12. Divide into 3 sets (SST in Nino 3.4 region) 16 El Nino phases 27 Neutral phases 11 La Nina phases Listings of El Nino and La Nina events after 1950 as defined by SST's in the Nino 3.4 region and exceeding + 0.4 0 C threshold. The starting and ending month of each is given with the duration in months. El Nino eventsLa Nina events BeginEndDurationBeginEndDuration Aug-51Feb-527Mar-50Feb-5112 Mar-53Nov-539Jun-54Mar-5622 Apr-57Jan-5815May-56Nov-567 Jun-63Feb-649May-64Jan-659 May-65Jun-6614Jul-70Jan-7219 Sep-68Mar-7019Jun-73Jun-7413 Apr-72Mar-7312Sep-74Apr-7620 Aug-76Mar-778Sep-84Jun-8510 Jul-77Jan-787May-88Jun-8914 Oct-79Apr-807Sep-95Mar-967 Apr-82Jul-8316Jul-98Dec-9918 Aug-86Feb-8819 Mar-91Jul-9217 Feb-93Sep-938 Apr-97Apr-9813

13. Summary of Sixty Years of Wind Speed Data at Huron

14. NORDEX N60 Power 1,300 kW Diameter60 m 197 ft Rotor speed12.8/19.2 rpm Hub height80 m 262 ft

15. EllsworthHuron Average Daily Power Production by Phase

16. -- neutral -- cold -- warm Annual Power Production by Phase

17. PierreRapid City -- neutral -- cold -- warm EllsworthHuron

18. Month Rapid CityPierre Probability of a low wind event Month

19. Results An ENSO-wind relationship exists Higher wind energy production is expected during La Nina periods due to less frequent lull episodes. El Nino periods are characterized by lower mean wind speeds and more frequent occurrences of lulls that will reduce the capacity for energy production.

20. Future Work Detailed analysis of SD data Confidence intervals Statistical significance Examine ENSO impacts on wind characteristics for all US locations that are potential wind power sites Explore potential impacts of other types of systematic climate variability on winds (e.g., PDO, NAO, AO)

21. Final Words Climate is crucial for long-term wind power site selection, the estimation of expected capacity for power production, and estimating requirements for energy storage and complementary sources. Wind development is crucial to future energy supply development in the US Cost effective energy Environmental benefits

22. Acknowledgements Science mentor: Robert Harriss Communication mentor: David Gochis Statistics: Rick Katz Also: Larry McDaniel, Claudia Tebaldi, Casey Thornbrugh, and the rest of the SOARS protégés and staff

23. References AWEA, 2004: Wind Energy Potential. Wind Web Tutorial, www.awea.org Barnett, Jon; 2001: Security and Climate Change. Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 7. Davis, Devra; 2002: When Smoke Ran Like Water. Hall, Kevin G.; 2005: Simulated oil meltdown shows U.S. economy’s vulnerability. Knight Ridder Newspapers. IEA, 2005: Integrating Wind into Electricity Grids. Variability of Wind Power and other Renewable Management Options and Strategies, IEA report. O’Brien, Karen L. and Leichenko, Robin M.; 2000: Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization. Global Environmental Change. Trenberth, K.E.; Caron, J.M.; Stepaniak, D.P.; Worley, S.; 2002: J. Geophys. Res. 107, 10.1029/2000JD000298.

24. The wind doesn't blow all the time. How much can it really contribute to a utility's generating capacity? How much energy can wind realistically supply to the U.S.? What is needed for wind to reach its full potential in the U.S.? How much energy can wind supply worldwide? I've heard that Denmark is pulling back on wind development. Does that mean wind is a failure? What is the "energy payback time" for a wind turbine? What are your primary references? Questions

25. El Nino/La Nina Storm Tracks El Nino tends to be wet during winter La Nina tends to be dry during winter La Na Da: Neutral tends to flip/flop depending on cycle

26. Questions What is ENSO? What is a wind turbine and how does it work? How big is a wind turbine? How much electricity can one wind turbine generate? How many turbines does it take to make one megawatt (MW)? How many homes can one megawatt of wind serve? What is "capacity factor"? If a wind turbine's capacity factor is 33%, doesn't that mean it is only running one-third of the time? What is "availability factor"?

27. Results Huron daily profile 24 hour x 10 -1 m/s Huron annual profile x 10 -1 m/s Month

28. EllsworthPierre EllsworthHuron kW 0 = cold phase1 = neutral phase2 = warm phase

29. The wind doesn't blow all the time. How much can it really contribute to a utility's generating capacity? Utilities prefer on/off plants Wind plants increase probability system will meet demand Capacity factor*capacity ~ capacity value E.g. 100-MW wind (35%) ~ 35-MW conventional E.g. 2001 CPUC 162-MW wind (30%) ~ 48-MW http://www.eere.energy.gov/windpoweringamerica/pdfs/xcel_wind_decision.pdf

30. THE TOP TWENTY STATES for Wind Energy Potential as measured by annual energy potential in the billions of kWh, factoring in environmental and land use exclusions for wind class of 3 and higher. B kWh/Yr 1North Dakota1,21011Colorado481 2Texas1,19012New Mexico435 3Kansas1,07013Idaho73 4South Dakota1,03014Michigan65 5Montana1,02015New York62 6Nebraska86816Illinois61 7Wyoming74717California59 8Oklahoma72518Wisconsin58 9Minnesota65719Maine56 10Iowa55120Missouri52 Source: An Assessment of the Available Windy Land Area and Wind Energy Potential in the Contiguous United States, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, August 1991. PNL-7789 Total = 10,470

31. What is needed for wind to reach its full potential in the U.S.? Consistent policy support Large lay-offs Hold up investments Nondiscriminatory access to transmission lines Penalty for failure to transmit on schedule New penalty system needed for wind New transmission lines High voltage lines from High Plains to population centers Expense offset by benefit to consumers national security

32. How much energy can wind supply worldwide? Currently More than 39,000-MW worldwide 90 B kWh 9 million American homes Dozen large nuclear power plants Theoretically 5,800 quadrillion BTUs 15 times current world energy production 1 quad 172 million barrels oil 45 million tons coal

33. I've heard that Denmark is pulling back on wind development. Does that mean wind is a failure? Denmark is small, the U.S. is not 20% of demand in Denmark, 0.4% of demand in U.S. Half the size of Indiana Denmark has transformed its national power system, the U.S. has not Overproduction causes scrambling to increase exports Unimaginable in U.S. Danish wind plants are typically small, U.S. wind plants are not. Community involvement and low-capacity distribution networks Large wind turbines require advance transmission planning and no affect on customer network

34. What is the "energy payback time" for a wind turbine? The net energy value of a wind turbine or other power plant i.e. how long the plant has to operate to generate the amount of electricity that was needed for its manufacture and construction Shortest energy payback time of any energy technology 3 – 8 months

35. What is ENSO?

36. What is a wind turbine and how does it work? Courtesy of Penn State Erie, The Behrend College

37. 198119851990199619992000 Rotor (meters) 101727405071 Rating (kW) 251002255507501650 Annual MWh 45220550148022005600 Back

38. How many turbines does it take to make one megawatt (MW)? 1 MW = 1,000 kW = 1 million W 500 kW – 4 MW turbines Valmont Station = 226 MW

39. How many homes can one megawatt of wind serve? The plants... have added 200,000 megawatts of electricity generation capacity nationwide, which would power 200 million homes – The Blade (Toledo, OH) June 12, 2005 1 MW ~ 1,000 homes 100 MW wind farm ~ 30,000 homes 30% capacity factor 1,000 MW coal plant ~ 750,000 homes 75% capacity factor

40. What is "capacity factor"? Actual amount of power produced over time Capacity Factor = Power that would have been produced if turbine operated at maximum output 100% of the time 100 MW wind farm ~ 30 MW 30% capacity factor 1,000 MW coal plant ~ 750 MW 75% capacity factor

41. No Midwest: 65-80% < full capacity Capacity factor lower If a wind turbine's capacity factor is 33%, doesn't that mean it is only running one-third of the time?

42. What is "availability factor"? A measurement of the reliability of a power plant Modern wind turbine >98% NREL 2002 Modern coal plant ~ 85% Northwest Power Planning Council 2002